Uncategorized

Date: April 5th, 2023 It was an entirely red day across all the Ag futures yesterday. Little new fundamental news, China on holiday and a 4-day trading week here could already be influencing traders. Cattle did start the day higher but starting fading shortly after the open. Long term fundamentals for cattle are still supportive, as I’ve said before, even in a bullish market it does not mean we have to go higher every day. The new highs for fats hit on Monday and feeders last Friday, so far this week it appears traders want to make sure the nearby fundamentals remain supportive as well. By that, I mean that beef can at least hold steady if not continue to increase along with the continued…

Date: April 3rd, 2023 Cattle futures rallied last week as cash fed cattle trade soared higher. Trade in TX and KS reported at $165 to $167 live, $2 to $4 higher than the week previous. Northern trade was reported $3 to $7 higher from $168 to $172 live and $270 to $272 dressed. Also on Friday, winter storms in South Dakota while red flag warnings were posted in the Southern Plains, both hazardous to cattle. Lean hogs were mixed on Friday and for the week as nearby and cash were under pressure as USDA revised December 1st inventory up 1.28 million head even though March 1st all hogs and pigs inventory was in line with expectations at 72.86 million head. Deferred futures were supported by…

Date: March 29th, 2023 Livestock futures mixed on Tuesday following strong gains on Monday. Lean hogs and feeders struggled and traded fairly tight ranges, both within Monday’s range. The nearby live cattle contract was able to extend gains and it would not surprise me to see steady to $2 higher cash trade this week. Asking prices in the South have already been reported from $165 to $166 live with nothing noted yet up North. Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle - West Plains, MO Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/28/2023 - Final This Week: 2,363 Last Week: 2,279 Last Year: 3,223 Compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers sold 2.00-4.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves sold 3.00-6.00 higher. Demand was good to very good on…

Date: March 28th, 2023 A strong start for the week in both livestock and grain futures yesterday. Triple digit gains for all cattle and lean hog futures on Monday led by gap higher moves for feeder cattle. Strong cash prices continue to support higher futures, at least on stockers and feeders. Fed cattle have dipped just a little bit recently, at least in TX and KS, but it would not surprise me to see steady to $2 higher trade this week. NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY - WEEK ENDING 03/25/2023 RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total This Week: 186,600 27,200 5,000 218,800 Last Week: 194,400 45,700 44,100 284,200 Year Ago: 166,900 29,900 24,900 221,700 Compared to last week, steers and heifers under 700 lbs sold…

Date: March 22nd, 2023 Cattle futures finally able to break the recent lower trends and close with modest gains but lean hogs continue to tank hitting new lows again yesterday and the nearby April contract closing in on the contract low. The big question for cattle prices remains whether the focus will be on the bullish fundamentals or the fear mongering and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. banking system. Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle - Carthage, MO Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/20/2023 - Final This Week: 7,683 Last Week: 7,795 Last Year: 7,024 Compared to last week feeder steers sold steady. Feeder heifers under 475 lbs. sold steady to 4.00 higher. Heavier weights sold steady. Heifer calves weighing 310 lbs. sold at 280. 450 head…

Date: March 20th, 2023 Mixed livestock futures on Friday but all lower week over week. Cash fed cattle trade weaker for the first in over a month as trade in South was $1 lower at $164 live and trade in the North was $1 to $2 lower at $164 live and $263 to $264 dressed. Cattle on feed report on Friday was again bullish and in line expectations. Cattle on feed as of March 1st totaled 11.6 million head which is 4% below a year ago. Placements during February totaled 1.73 million head and down 7% vs. last year while marketings totaled 1.74 million head and down 5% from last year. Weekly closes in the meats…April Live Cattle -$1.95, June -$2.25, March Feeder Cattle -$2.62,…

The big selloff in the meats started back on Friday and it willingly continued yesterday, creating a lot of panic in the process. There’s been a lot of damage on the charts from a technical analysis standpoint and that has a chance at providing more active speculative liquidation of longs and new selling to be added to the mix. That’s not a forecast though, if that’s what you’re looking for, it’s just a valid talking point of the potential that lies ahead. SVB and Signature bank going under was the biggest focus in markets yesterday, along with the very willing bailout by the feds. Economists and finance folks have been and are going to continue to make very confident predictions on the outcome of this…

Date: March 13th, 2023 Cattle futures were lower on Friday and lean hogs higher. For the week, live cattle lower while feeders and lean hogs were higher. Equities were sharply lower last week, DOW down over 1700 points last week, which provided some of the pressure on fats. Cash fed cattle trade was steady in the South last week at $165 live after 5 consecutive weeks of higher prices. Trade in the North was steady to $3 higher at $165 to $166 live and $265 to $268.50 dressed. Weekly closes, Friday, March 3rd to Friday, March 10th…April Live Cattle -$1.15, June -$2.02, March Feeder Cattle +$1.47, April +$1.62, August +$1.85, April Lean Hogs +$2.90, June +2.15. Boxed Beef, Choice -$4.41 @ $284.91, Select -$5.32 @…

Date: March 7th, 2023 Cattle futures higher to begin the week, feeders the leader finishing mostly $2+ higher while lean hogs were steady to lower on Monday. March feeders closing in a new contract high as April forward contracts continue to make new contract highs. October forward now over $220 as the front month has not been above $200 since September 2015 and the all time spot high was back in October 2014 at $245.20. Some live cattle contracts also hit new contract highs yesterday. Packers enter this week will a little more inventory but are still looking at tight supplies moving forward with negotiated cash trade most likely holding off again until later in the week. NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY - WEEK…

Date: March 6th, 2023 Livestock futures finished higher last Friday which allowed for live cattle to settle near steady for the week and feeders higher week over week. Cash fed cattle trade added another $1 to $5 compared to the week previous with live trade in the South at $165 and trade in North from $165 to $167 live and $262 to mostly $265 on a dressed basis. Negotiated cash has been higher when compared to the year previous every week so far this year and all of 2022 while less than half of the time beef prices have been higher. The leverage continues to shift from packers to cattle feeders and should continue until slaughter ready supplies are back in a surplus so long…