Date: June 13th, 2023
Livestock futures were resilient yesterday with all but the soon to expire June lean hogs holding decent gains, even in the face of higher corn prices. Sharply higher cash fed cattle and beef these past couple weeks continue to be supportive although futures so far have been reluctant to take a run at last week’s highs. Choice beef +$31.59 so far this month with easily $10 higher live cash. Cash trade has certainly been more active recently with less inventory available to contract. Nearly 110K head in cash trade last week with the weighted average near $189 live and $300 dressed. No bids or offers yet this week, but it certainly looks like higher cash trade will develop again this week.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 06/10/2023
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week: 187,800 38,400 73,400 299,600
Last Week: 99,800 30,400 3,900 134,100
Year Ago: 166,900 54,600 13,900 235,400
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold 4.00 to 9.00 higher in the North and South-Central regions, while the Southeast was 3.00 to 7.00 higher. Receipts were nearly double from the previous week and the market got even hotter early to mid-week. Even after a correction in the CME Cattle Complex on Wednesday, the auction markets shook off the negativity and continued a higher trajectory. Demand was good to very good all week long as two weeks on a row of sharply higher markets are making ranchers willing sellers in this marketing environment. Auction receipts Year-to-Date on this report are right on target with a year ago and the 5-year average. Supply this week in Missouri was heavy, just a couple gooseneck loads shy of being the second largest volume week of the year. That’s saying something considering the time of year this is happening. With Missouri being a large cow-calf and backgrounding state, typically large runs occur around the first of the year. With the drought moving into Missouri even more now and coupling that with lack of forage, issues are abound in the Missouri cattle world.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/12/2023 – Final
This Week: 11,519 Last Week: 12,793 Last Year: 5,456
Compared to last week feeder steers under 700 lbs. sold 4.00-8.00 lower with heavier weights selling 5.00-10.00 higher. Feeder heifers under 600 lbs. sold 8.00-16.00 lower with heavier weights steady. Quality was off somewhat from last week. Supply was heavy with good demand. 7 weight index steers averaged $227-$234 and 8 weights averaged $224.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/12/2023 – Prelim
This Week: 10,300 Last Week: 10,248 Last Year: 7,921
Compared to last week: Feeder steers very even, but mostly steady. Feeder heifers 2.00-5.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves 4.00-6.00 lower. Quality not as attractive as last week and plain to average, few attractive. Demand moderate. Buyers a little more selective for kind or condition. Rain continues to move in from the west delaying wheat harvest. 7 weight index steers averaged $230-$233 and 8 weights averaged $217-$223.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/12/2023 – Final
This Week: 2,006 Last Week: 8,675 Last Year: 7,256
Compared to last week: In a light test this week, steers and heifers sold with steady to lower undertones. Demand for this nice offering of feeder cattle was good. Several buyers in the seats, as well as on the internet. A few long strings of steers and heifers sold. Lots of small packages this week that helped to fill loads. 7 weight index steers averaged $239-$249 and 8 weights averaged $223-$231.
Cattle slaughter on Monday estimated at 125,000 head, up 4,000 from last week and up 5,000 from last year. Hog slaughter estimated at 467,000 head, matching a week ago and up 6,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Monday higher on moderate to weak demand with 80 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__337.43 +4.50
Select Cutout__310.24 +4.53
CME Feeder Cattle Index__227.99 +1.87
CME Lean Hog Index__84.73 +1.43
Pork Carcass Cutout __88.20 -.19
June live cattle hit a new contract and all-time spot high last Wednesday at $182.87 before reversing lower with support at $175. The contract is in the delivery but still holding a steep discount to the current cash trade, meaning a strong positive basis, which is great for those hedged and should mitigate any chance of delivery. August feeders also hit a new contract high on Wednesday at $245.17, 1 tick shy of matching the all-time spot high from October 2014. Support is at $236.82 then $231.50. June lean hogs expire tomorrow, looking to hold right around $87 with a trading range from $88.50 to $86 this past week. July will then be the front month and is already showing strong gains this month. The contract low was hit on May 26th at $74.02. The lower trend was taken out last week and now looking to test resistance at $94.
Over in the grains, corn was the leader the entire session pulling new crop soybeans higher and keeping wheat steady. The light and scattered rains over the weekend along with dry forecasts this week across the Corn Belt supporting the rally. Private estimates starting to decrease EU wheat production estimates as USDA just bumped it higher last week in its monthly update. Russia still squawking about issues with the Black Sea shipping deal and now even the UN reporting concerns on renewing the current deal that will end in July. Export Inspections for the week ending June 8th showed another solid week for corn at 46 MBU and another cargo of grain sorghum shipped to China with the total inspected at 2.3 MBU. The average per week needed to meet the current corn export estimate is down to 31.1 MBU and grain sorghum only 1.3 MBU. Soybean inspections only 5.2 MBU and new crop wheat inspections totaled 9.1 MBU.
After the close, USDA confirmed deteriorating crop conditions across the Corn Belt with corn and soybean good to excellent conditions both dropped 3%. Corn conditions nationwide at 61% G/E, down 3 points and P/VP +2 to 8%. This compares to 72% G/E and 5% P/VP last year. Soybean conditions nationwide at 59% G/E, down 3 and P/VP +2 to 9%. This compares to 70% G/E and 5% P/VP last year.
The worst state rating are as follows…
PA at 22% G/E corn, -8% from last week and -12% the past 2 weeks
MI at 38% G/E corn, -8% from last week and -28% the past 2 weeks, 30% G/E soybeans, -10%
IL at 48% G/E corn, -2% from last week and -21% the past 2 weeks, 47% G/E soybeans -4%
OH at 57% G/E corn, -7% from last week and -24% the past 2 weeks, 55% G/E soybeans -10%
Spring wheat planted up 4% to 97%, right at the average, and emergence at 90%. Conditions for spring wheat also came in lower than last week at 60% G/E and 7% P/VP. Winter wheat harvest only advancing 4% this past week to now 8% complete. OK and TX both +13% with OK at 28% complete and TX at 42%. KS wheat harvest through Sunday just getting started in the south central part of the state at 1%. Winter wheat conditions improved with G/E at 38% and P/VP at 31%. KS and NE are still the two states with the worst conditions.
Fall crops higher again overnight, soybeans taking the lead this time with corn following and into new recent highs, wheat remains mixed. Corn finished the overnight 6 to 8 higher, soybeans 15 to 20 higher, and wheat 1 lower to 2 higher. Outside markets are supportive with equities higher, US$ lower and energies higher with crude up $2+/barrel.
Brazil’s CONAB reported its monthly crop production estimates this morning with corn at 125.7 MMT, up 0.2 MMT from last month and soybean production at 155.7 MMT, up 0.9 MMT. USDA last Friday reported Brazil corn at 132 MMT and soybeans at 156 MMT.
Rains this week across the Plains with heavy rains in the forecast for the Southeast and still the potential for 1” rains from IN up into New England. Heading into the weekend and early next week is the next chance for scattered showers across the Corn Belt. The 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks showing above normal temps from the Gulf up into the Corn Belt with below normal temps out West and above normal moisture for the western half of the U.S. and the Southeast.
July corn hitting a new recent high overnight at $6.24 ¾ with resistance up at $6.40 and support around $5.80. December breaking the nearby resistance overnight and up to the highest level since April 21st at 5.58 ¾ with support at $5.20. Looking at August soybeans since most locations now have old crop bids vs. August, hit a new recent high overnight at $13.11 ¼ with resistance next at $13.45 ½ and support at $12.55. November soybeans also a new high for the month at $12.26 with resistance next around $12.50 and support at $11.67. July KC wheat still very choppy with support at $7.82 and resistance at $8.49 ½. July Chicago wheat still holding the long-term lower trend with support at $6.11 and resistance at $6.64. July MPLS wheat also still showing a long term lower trend with support at $7.75 and resistance at $8.38. July soybean meal trending lower the past few months with support at $395 and resistance at $408.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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