Date: June 6th, 2023
Cattle continued higher on Monday while lean hogs backed off. Live cattle made new contract highs again but feeders were not able to reach those levels as both feeders and lean hogs actually had inside trading days staying within the trading range of the previous session, last Friday. Sharply higher boxed beef along with lower corn prices were supportive for cattle while pork prices were also higher with bellies up $24.50 but cash prices during the day were steady to slightly lower.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 06/03/2023
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week: 99,800 30,400 3,900 134,100
Last Week: 147,400 36,700 33,700 217,800
Year Ago: 97,300 26,200 26,800 150,300
Compared to last week, steers and heifers in the North and South-Central areas sold 7.00 to 12.00 higher, while the Southeast were 2.00 to 6.00 higher. Demand was good to very good on lighter auction receipts for the week of Memorial Day.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/5/2023 – Final
This Week: 12,793 Last Report (5/22): 10,675 Last Year: 9,558
Compared to the sale 2 weeks ago feeder steers sold 10.00-15.00 higher with light four weight calves up to 28.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold 15.00-25.00 higher. Also four weight heifers sold up to 30.00 higher. Supply was heavy with very good demand. 7 weight index steers averaged $228-$231 and 8 weights averaged $215.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/5/2023 – Prelim
This Week: 10,500 Last Report (5/22): 9,625 Last Year: 8,396
Compared to last sale two weeks ago (05/22/23): Feeder steers 10.00-15.00 higher. Feeder heifers 8.00-10.00 higher. Stocker steers and heifers mostly steady as grass accounts now mostly full. Steer calves 10.00-20.00 higher. Heifer calves steady to 5.00 higher. Demand remains good for all classes. 7 weight index steers averaged $228-$229 and 8 weights averaged $218.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/5/2023 – Final
This Week: 8,675 Last Report (5/22): 2,760 Last Year: 7,256
Compared to two weeks: Feeder steers 6.00 to 12.00 higher, heifers 13.00 to 15.00 higher. Demand for this exceptional offering of cattle was super. 7 weight index steers averaged $242-$259 and 8 weights averaged $228-$232.
Cattle slaughter on Monday estimated at 121,000 head, down 2,000 from last year. Hog slaughter estimated at 467,000 head, down 6,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Monday sharply higher on moderate demand with 98 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__314.19 +4.26
Select Cutout__296.73 +5.80
CME Feeder Cattle Index__216.12 +8.08
CME Lean Hog Index__81.21 +.69
Pork Carcass Cutout __89.06 +4.34
June live cattle again a new contract high on Monday at $178.17. This closes the gap on the weekly continuous chart and also is a new all-time spot high taking out the $177.70 hit back in April. August feeders made a new contract high last Friday at $243.80 with the 10-day moving average as nearby support at $237.45. This is a new all-time high for any August feeder contract with the all-time spot high up at $245.20 from October 2014. June lean hogs unable to make it 5 days in a row higher with resistance at $87.82 and support at 81.50 then the contract low at $75.45 hit on May 26th.
Corn was the leader lower on Monday and wheat the leader higher. All grains were cautious trading both sides of unchanged at one point during the overnight or day session. Weekly grain inspections for solid again for corn at 46.5 MBU. The average needed per week is down to 37.4 MBU and year to date shipments are still only 73% of the total export estimate. Soybean inspections totaled 7.9 MBU, slightly below expectations. The average needed per week is up to 13.3 MBU while 91% of the export estimate has been shipped. 1 more cargo of grain sorghum was shipped to China this past week bringing year to date up to 79% of the total export estimate. Wheat inspections totaled 10.7 MBU with 8.6 MBU adding to the old crop tally and 2.1 MBU now for new crop as the 2023/24 marketing year began on June 1st for wheat. Year to date old crop inspections plus Census adjustments through March total 749.4 MBU with USDA’s old crop export estimate at 775 MBU. The #1 destinations were China for corn, soybeans to Germany and wheat to Mexico.
After the close, crop conditions for corn drastically changed across IL, IN, MO, OH and MI. Good to excellent ratings for corn nationally down 5% from a week ago at 64%. The above mentioned states all below the national average and dropping 9% to 20% from a week ago. Soybean conditions released for the first time with 62% rated good to excellent. IL down 31% from a year ago at 51% and NE down 21% at 58%. KS also below the national averages at 51% for corn and 57% for soybeans. Winter wheat has begun in the Southern Plains with TX now 29% complete and OK at 15%. Winter wheat conditions improved by 2 points.
All grains higher overnight, led by the wheat markets yet again which was somewhat surprising after the crop progress came out yesterday afternoon. Corn finished the overnight 2 to 5 higher, soybeans 2 to 3 higher, and wheat 8 to 14 higher. Outside markets have equities pointing lower, US$ higher and energies lower with crude down $1.50/barrel. A surprise export sale announced this morning by USDA for 165,000 MT or 6.1 MBU of soybeans sold to Spain still in this marketing year.
The two biggest news headlines overnight/this morning are certainly more impactful to wheat. The Ukraine counter offensive to regain some of the territory annexed by Russia has been abruptly stopped as a major dam and power plant has been destroyed on the Dnipro River. Both sides of course blaming each other this morning. It has already led to mass evacuations and major flooding but could also affect the water supply to Europe’s largest nuclear power plant.
The other big news is Australia’s new crop wheat has their Ag agency released a production estimate of only 26.2 MMT, down over 30% from last year’s crop and well under the 10-year average. USDA last month still had a 39 MMT projection. Dry conditions have been the main issue and hot and dry looks to continue according to their long range forecasts. This is significantly impactful to US wheat futures as Australian wheat is our main competition into SE Asia. And with world prices so low, mainly from Europe and Black Sea origins, SE Asia has been our #1 importing area.
Scattered rains and pop up showers continue across most of the country this week, heaviest amounts remain in the Western third and Southern Plains. The chances for better rainfall now appear in the extended forecasts for the Midwest and Eastern Corn Belt. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps only in the Northern Border and Gulf States with below normal in the Southwest and above normal moisture for the Western half of the U.S. with below normal for from ND to the Great Lakes.
July corn holding around the $6 level with resistance up at $6.40 and support around $5.80. December taking out the $5.40 resistance on Monday with the next at $5.50 and support at $5.20. July soybeans up to a new recent high at $13.61 ½ yesterday and $13.61 overnight with support at $13 and resistance next at $14.11. The November contract hit a new recent low last week at $11.30 ½ now looking to test nearby resistance around the $12 mark. July KC wheat has support at $7.36 and nearby resistance looks to be tested this week at $8.49 ½. July Chicago wheat still holding the long-term lower trend, down to a new low last week at $5.73 ¼ and resistance at $6.64. July MPLS wheat also still showing a long term lower trend with support at $7.75 and resistance at $8.58. July soybean meal trending lower the past few months with a new 10-month low last week at $386.3 and resistance at $407.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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