Date: June 28, 2023
Cattle futures were sharply higher on Tuesday, led by feeders with grains sharply lower. The back and forth or cat and mouse game between corn futures and feeders certainly continues to remain volatile. August feeders gapped higher at the open yesterday, the second such move in the past week and the fourth gap move over this past month. Fundamentally for cattle this week, cash fed cattle has already started trading with some light volume in KS & TX at $178 to $179 live, $1 to $2 lower than last week. Beef prices hitting their seasonal turn lower as buyers have fully booked and stocked for the 4th of July. Lean hogs continued cautiously higher yesterday and await some additional fundamental news with this week’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/26/2023 – Final
This Week: 10,989 Last Week: 8,291 Last Year: 10,440
Compared to last week feeder steers sold 5.00-10.00 higher. Feeder heifers Under 575 lbs. sold steady to 6.00 lower with heavier weights selling steady to 4.00 higher. 7 weight index steers averaged $232-$240 and 8 weights averaged $223-$230.50.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/27/2023 – Final
This Week: 3,440 Last Week: 4,301 Last Year: 6,094
Compared to last week, calves under 700 lbs. sold mostly 5.00 lower, a light test of weights under 500 lbs. had spots of 10.00 lower. Feeders over 700 lbs. sold steady to 2.00 higher although true comparisons of like kinds and weights were limited with the previous sale. The supply of feeders was moderate to heavy but has dropped off from the extremely heavy supplies seen the last couple of weeks.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/26/2023 – Final
This Week: 6,946 Last Week: 6,067 Last Year: 7,633
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 3.00-8.00 higher, instance to 15.00 higher. Feeder heifers 2.00-5.00 higher. Demand good for feeder cattle. Steer calves 4.00-8.00 lower, 400-500 lbs. steady. Heifer calves 4.00-6.00 lower. Demand moderate for calves. Quality average. 7 weight index steers averaged $233.50-$241.50 and 8 weights averaged $224-$227.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/26/2023 – Final
This Week: 3,671 Last Week: 1,487 Last Year: 3,113
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers sold with substantially higher undertones, except, 750 lb – 800 lb heifers 3.00 to 4.00 lower. Demand for this eye appealing offering of cattle was outstanding. Light weight steers and heifers were a very hot commodity. Heifers under 700 lbs exceeded the steer prices from a week ago. 7 weight index steers averaged $244-$251 and 8 weights averaged $224-$245
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 126,000 head, down 1,000 from last week and from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 466,000 head, down 3,000 compared to a week ago but up 20,00 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values lower on Tuesday on good demand with 147 loads sold.
Choice Cutout -3.81 @ 329.23, Select Cutout -1.24 @ 298.43
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 224.97, Lean Hog Index @ 92.52
Pork Carcass Cutout +.61 @ 100.16
June live cattle holding between $176 and $180, cash and futures finally converging, and the contract will expire Friday. August live cattle trading a much wider range this month with a new recent low last week at $168.10 up to the contract high at $178.10 from June 7th. August feeders again remain very volatile with multiple gap higher and gap lower moves this month. The recent low and support at $226.70 with resistance at $241.90 and the contract high at $245.17. July lean hogs up to a new recent high last week at $96.30 with resistance next at $96.90 and support at $89.70.
Again, all grains sharply lower on Tuesday with wetter forecasts being the most influential, albeit still 7-14 days out for the majority of the Corn Belt. This pattern has continued for most of this growing season as rains look to be a week to 2 weeks out yet every time we get there, the amounts and coverages dwindle. This is why we now have the worst national crop ratings for late June since 1998! As of the close yesterday, there are some 1”+ rain chances for most of NE and then eastern IL, IN and OH. Export inspections were disappointing along with weekly export sales recently and a lack of new crop sales, specifically to China. Friday could get very interesting with end of the month, end of quarter, updated acreage estimates and quarterly stocks from USDA.
Little fresh news overnight beyond the additional chatter about more rain and models agreeing which continues to apply pressure to the grains. Outside markets have equities lower, US$ higher and energies steady. Corn finished the overnight 2 to 14 lower, soybeans 18 to 27 lower, and wheat 15 to 20 lower. USDA announced a private sale of 170,706 MT or 6.7 MBU of corn sold to Mexico with the majority being new crop.
USDA will update planted acreage this Friday along with quarterly grain stocks. In March, USDA projected corn planted acres at 91.996 million. The average trade estimate is just slightly lower at 91.853 million with the range from 91 to 93 million. Soybean planted acres were estimated to be 87.5 by USDA in March. The average trade estimate is just slightly higher at 87.67 and the range is 87 to 88.5 million.
Rainfall chances and amounts over this next week are improving from NE to OH with now some spots projected to receive 2”+. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for all except for a pocket of below normal temps over the Plains and above normal moisture for all except in the Southwest and West Coast.
July corn now testing support at $6.20 and the sharply higher month-long higher trend with resistance at $6.72. December corn rallied $1.39 in a month and now has pulled back nearly $.84 in a week. Support is at $5.43 with a gap from $5.36 ¾ to $5.33. August soybeans tested resistance at $14.47 last week, broke through nearby support overnight with the next down at $13.33. November soybeans rallied $2.47 in 3 weeks and have pulled back $1.12 this past week with support next around $12.50. July KC wheat back to the midpoint of the recent trading range with resistance at $8.91 and support at $7.80. July Chicago wheat has support at $6.56 and resistance at the new recent high from Monday at $7.56 ¾. July MPLS wheat has support at $8.02 and resistance at $8.91. July soybean meal has support at $400 and resistance at $442.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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