Date: June 20th, 2023
Livestock futures were able to hold gains last Friday which locked in near steady week over week for live cattle and solid gains for lean hogs. Feeders were sharply lower a couple days last week with corn sharply higher. At least they were able to come back fill the gap left from Thursday’s move lower. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade very slow to develop last week. Light volume began in the North midweek with the majority $4 to $7 lower at $185 live and $294 to $296 on a dressed basis. Trade in the South only light volume through Friday afternoon at $182 live which is $3 to $4 lower than the week previous.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…June Live Cattle +$.12, August -$.12, August Feeders -$4.07, September -$3.52, July Lean Hogs +$3.22, August +$6.72. Choice Boxed Beef +$10.16 at $343.09, up $37.25 so far this month, and Pork Carcass Cutout +$3.94 at $92.33.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 634,000 head, up 18,000 from the week previous but down 34,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 515.7 million pounds with year to date remaining -4.8% vs. last year and slaughter now -3.7%. Cattle slaughter on Monday estimated at 126,000 head, up 4,000 from last week and up 5,000 from last year.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,330,000 head, down 28,000 compared to the week previous and down 32,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 498.2 million pounds last week with year to date now only +0.3% compared to a year ago and slaughter +1.1%. Hog slaughter on Monday estimated at 459,000 head, up 2,000 compared to a week ago and up 10,000 compared to a year ago.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/11/2023 – 6/17/2023
Receipts: Current Week 32,018 Last Week 32,918 Last Year 26,653
Compared to last week: Feeder steers mostly steady. Feeder heifers steady to 3.00 higher. Demand good despite several days of cattle futures trading in the red. Steer and heifer calves sold 4.00-10.00 lower with increased numbers of un-weaned calves included. Demand moderate to good for calves. Quality not as attractive at many barns as last week, leading one to believe we are at the end of the winter graze out run. Rains continue to fall across the state, thus wheat harvest has been halted again.
Boxed beef cutout values on Monday lower on moderate demand with 101 loads sold.
Choice Cutout @ 340.14 -2.95, Select Cutout @ 310.76 -.19
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 223.76, Lean Hog Index @ 88.21
Pork Carcass Cutout from Friday at 92.33 +1.41
June live cattle breaking nearby support last week and hitting a new recent low at $176.30 with support next at $175. Still no deliveries as cash remains premium to futures. August feeders posting a key reversal lower midweek and taking out nearby support with the next at $231.50 and resistance at $241.90. July lean hogs up to a new recent high last week at $94.30 with resistance next at $95 and support at $89.70.
Hard to find a negative trade for any grain or oilseeds the majority of last week as futures rocketed higher. This is most certainly a summer weather rally, led by the fall crops, as dry conditions continue and now above normal temps creep into a large chunk of Corn Belt. Through last Friday, December corn has now rallied $1.07 the past month and November soybeans $2.16 higher just this month. Weather will continue to be the driver coming off this long 3-day holiday weekend. Other supporting factors last week included a record domestic soybean crush in May, world veg oils continue to rally and wheat conditions in the EU sharply lower the past couple weeks as many private estimates continue to decrease wheat production estimates.
Weekly closes in the grains…July Corn +$.36, September +$.69 ½, December +$.67, July Soybeans +$.80, August +$1.11 ½, November +$1.38, July KC Wheat +$.44 ¼, September +$.45 ¼, July Chicago Wheat +$.57 ¾, September +$.59 ¾, July MPLS Wheat +$.41 ¾, September +$.44, July Soybean Meal +$19.2/T, July Soybean Oil +.05/LB.
Corn and beans did gap higher when we opened the overnight trade. Since, those gaps have been filled and all grains traded both sides of unchanged. Rains were very spotty over the weekend, parts of the Corn Belt receiving 1-2” but still some completely missed out. Outside markets have equities lower, US$ higher and energies lower with crude down over $.60/barrel. Corn finished the overnight 2 lower to 2 higher, soybeans 4 lower to 5 higher, and wheat 6 to 8 lower.
Other news is light this morning. Export inspections will be out later this morning and then updated crop progress and conditions later this afternoon. I would expect to see fall crop conditions lower again across the Corn Belt and HRW harvest still delayed some.
This week’s rains forecasted to be the heaviest in the Northern Plains and in the Southeast with only scattered and less 1” rains across the Corn Belt. The 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps from the Gulf up through the Corn Belt and into Canada and now spreading out into most of the Southern Plains and parts of the Southeast with below normal on both coasts and above normal moisture for the Northwest and Northeast with below normal in the Southwest.
July corn testing resistance overnight, up to a new recent high at $6.46 ¾, resistance up to $6.47 ½ and support at $6.01. December corn also a new recent high overnight at $6.09, the highest since early January with resistance next at $6.13 and support at $5.55. August soybeans a new recent high overnight at $14.21 ½ with the next at $14.45 and support around $13.08. November soybeans up to $13.64 ¾, the highest since mid-March, with resistance next around the $14 level and support at $12.40. July KC wheat still very choppy and the last grain contract to make a new high this month at $8.52 ¾ last Friday with support at $7.78. July Chicago wheat took out the long-term lower trend last week with resistance next at $7.17 and support at $6.28. July MPLS wheat still showing a long-term lower trend with support at $7.75 and resistance at $8.61. July soybean meal trending lower the past few months, but sharply higher the past few trading sessions with support at $401 and resistance at $442.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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