Date: June 7th, 2023
Cattle futures started out slow yesterday but quickly caught another wave of buying with June live cattle setting a new all-time spot high at $180.25, August feeders closing in on the all-time spot high at $245.20 and November through April feeders reaching above the $250 level. So far this week, only some light volume cash fed cattle trade in the North at $190 live and $295 to $300 dressed with TX also reported some light volume at $182 live, all $2 to $5 higher than last week. I also saw a few bids starting in NE at $192 live. A recap of last week’s cash fed cattle trade showed feedlots selling 93,042 head of negotiated cash fat cattle (66,859 head for 1-14 day delivery and 26,183 head 15-30 day delivery) in a range from $170-$190 live, weighted average $182.06 and $2.80-$2.97 dressed, weighted average $290.22.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/6/2023 – Final
This Week: 3,973 Last Week: 1,613 Last Year: 3,507
Compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers were 10.00-15.00 higher. Steer and heifers calves were 6.00-12.00 higher with spots 20.00 higher. Demand was very good on a heavy supply. A couple of stick out drafts were 90 head of 542 lb. heifers that brought 267.00 and 59 head of 841 lb. steers that sold for 224.75.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/5/2023 – Final
This Week: 4,465
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves under 550 lbs sold mostly steady following last weeks higher market but heavier calves and yearlings sold mostly higher with steers weighing 550-625 lbs selling 8.00-15.00 higher, spots 20.00 higher and the majority of steers over 625 lbs steady to 6.00 higher while yearling heifers sold 10.00-13.00 higher. A stick out set of 7 weight thin steers sold sharply higher and some steers over 800 lbs sold with a higher undertone.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 125,000 head, down 1,000 from last week and last year. Hog slaughter estimated at 469,000 head, down 11,000 compared to a week ago and down 7,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday sharply higher on good demand with 126 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__321.40 +7.21
Select Cutout__299.44 +2.71
CME Feeder Cattle Index__218.65 +2.53
CME Lean Hog Index__81.86 +.65
Pork Carcass Cutout __84.98 -4.08
June live cattle again a new contract and all time high yesterday at $180.25, yet still discount to cash, with support at $175. August feeders also a new contract high yesterday at $244.47 with the 10-day moving average as nearby support at $238.30. This is a new all-time high for any August feeder contract with the all-time spot high up at $245.20 from October 2014. New highs continue to be hit again this morning for both fats and feeders. June lean hogs also caught some bids yesterday and broke through nearby resistance with the next at $92, support at $81.30 then the contract low at $75.45 hit back on May 26th.
Wheat was the leader early on Russia/Ukraine escalations and a massive cut to Australia’s wheat production estimate. KC wheat traded a wild $.40 range on Tuesday but finished a couple cents lower along with MPLS wheat as Chicago wheat held small gains. I really thought corn would be the leader out the gates after crop conditions tanked in the ECB but the bulls have their story and bears still looking at the extended forecasts to bring good rains to the Midwest and ECB. Nearby July corn ended up the leader for the day while new crop corn and all soybean contracts held cautiously at 3 to 5 cents higher. Egypt only purchased 1 cargo of Russian wheat this go around, still the cheapest offered, and Spain made a surprise old crop soybean purchase of 6+ MBU from the U.S.
Grains traded both sides of unchanged overnight and still look to remain cautious with the mixed bag of bullish and bearish U.S. weather. Corn finished the overnight 3 to 5 lower, soybeans 1 higher to 4 lower, and wheat 2 higher to 4 lower. Outside markets have equities steady to higher, US$ lower and energies higher with crude up $.50/barrel.
Chinese customs data released today shows soybean imports for May 2023 hitting a new record amount at 12.02 MMT or 441.7 MBU. The total is up from April’s 7.26 MMT, 24% higher than last May and nearly 1 MMT over the previous monthly record set back in June 2020.
News is very light this morning as we await the next crop report from USDA to be released this Friday at 11 AM CST. The average trade estimates are looking for slightly higher old crop corn and beans stocks but little to no change yet to new crop yields. Remember this report is based on conditions as of June 1st not June 9th. Their continues to be most looking for reduced Argentine corn and soybean production numbers and higher numbers out of Brazil. Markets also looking for slightly higher U.S. old crop wheat stocks and new crop production, but little to no changes for new crop wheat stocks or world wheat figures.
Scattered rains and pop up showers continue across most of the country this week, heaviest amounts remain in the Western third. The NWS calling for heavy rains in MT Friday and Saturday then down into the WCB and Southeast for the weekend then possibly 1” rains for the ECB early next week. The GFS model calling for 1-2” rains for the ECB next week. This has been the story though over the past couple weeks with extended forecasts showing rain but by the time we get there, poof its gone and shows back up 10-14 days again. It is early in the growing season and temps remain near normal, but certainly some concern building and should be reflected again next Monday in deteriorating crop conditions across the ECB. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps only in the Northern Border and Gulf States with below normal from the Southwest across the East Coast and above normal moisture for the Western half of the U.S. with below normal still in the North and now in the Gulf States.
July corn holding around the $6 level with resistance up at $6.40 and support around $5.80. December taking out the $5.40 resistance on Monday with the next at $5.50 and support at $5.20. July soybeans up to a new recent high at $13.64 yesterday with resistance next at $14.11 and support at $13.22. The November contract hit a new recent low last week at $11.30 ½ now looking to test nearby resistance around the $12 mark. July KC wheat has support at $7.36 and nearby resistance at $8.49 ½. July Chicago wheat still holding the long-term lower trend, down to a new low last week at $5.73 ¼ and resistance at $6.64. July MPLS wheat also still showing a long term lower trend with support at $7.75 and resistance at $8.58. July soybean meal trending lower the past few months with a new 10-month low last week at $386.3 and resistance at $407.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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