Date: June 26, 2023
Livestock futures mixed to end last week but all still locked in week over week losses. Feeders led the way higher, triple digits higher actually with corn sharply lower. This could be short lived though due to the bearish Cattle on Feed report from USDA after the close. Cattle on feed totaled 11.6 million head on June 1st, down 3% from a year ago and in line with expectations. May marketings totaled 1.95 million head, 2% above last year and also in line with expectations. May placements though at 1.96 million head were 5% above a year ago and 3% above the average trade estimates. $2 to $4 lower negotiated cash fed cattle trade again last week. In the South, majority of the trade reported at $180 live and in the North from $182 to $185 live and $290 dressed. Weekly export sales and shipments for beef were higher than the week previous, yet still fairly routine. Pork sales an shipments were also higher than the week previous and remain very friendly.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…June Live Cattle -$.85, August -$.95, August Feeders -$.97, September -$.47, July Lean Hogs -$1.57, August -$1.00. Choice Boxed Beef -$9.08 at $334.01 and Pork Carcass Cutout +$5.03 at $97.36.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/18/2023 – 6/24/2023
Receipts: Current Week 22,242 Last Week 32,018 Last Year 24,995
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 5.00-10.00 lower. Feeder heifers 4.00-8.00 lower. Demand was good. Steer and heifer calves sold steady to 2.00 higher. Demand moderate to good for calves. Quality not as attractive at many barns as last week. Rains continue to fall across the state, thus wheat harvest has been halted again.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 649,000 head, up 15,000 from the week previous but down 16,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 526.6 million pounds with year to date now -4.7% vs. last year and slaughter -3.6%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,372,000 head, up 42,000 compared to the week previous and up 60,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 505.7 million pounds last week with year to date now +0.4% compared to a year ago and slaughter +1.2%.
Boxed beef cutout values last Friday lower on moderate to weak demand with 78 loads sold.
Choice Cutout -.46 @ 334.01, Select Cutout -3.84 @ 299.96
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 221.00, Lean Hog Index @ 88.61
Pork Carcass Cutout from Friday +.86 @ 97.36
June live cattle expire on Friday, still discount to cash trade but that spread as come in or converged over the past few weeks. Nearby support is at $176.25 with resistance at $179.60. August live cattle trading a much wider range this month with a new recent low last week at $168.10 up to the contract high at $178.10 from June 7th. August feeders very volatile last week, gapping lower on Wednesday, down to a new recent low at $226.70 then gapping higher on Friday with resistance at $236.40. July lean hogs up to a new recent high last week at $96.30 with resistance next at $96.90 and support at $89.70.
Fall crops ended last week sharply lower and for the second day in a row as charts correct on from very overbought positions. Not surprisingly to see the pullback heading into the weekend as the buying frenzy as caught fire the past few weeks. December corn rallied $1.39 in the past month and November soybeans $2.47 from low to high just this month. Mixed weather forecasts as some did show some improved rain chances for the Corn Belt yet others still holding below normal precipitation forecasted over the next week.
Weekly closes in the grains… July Corn -$.09 ½, September -$.09 ¼, December -$.09 ½, July Soybeans +$.28, August -$.03 ½, November -$.32 ¼, July KC Wheat +$.17, September +$.22 ¾, July Chicago Wheat +$.45 ¼, September +$.45, July MPLS Wheat +$.11 ¼, September +$.17 ¼, July Soybean Meal -$5.7/T, December -$5/T.
Grains overnight traded both sides of unchanged and finished steady to higher actually led by the wheat markets as Chicago wheat continues to make new recent highs. Scattered rains did fall across parts of the Corn Belt over the weekend, but not enough for the late week selling to continue here today. Only ½ to 1” rains expected this week yet still showing above normal moisture chances in early July. Over the weekend, Russia’s private military group, the Wagner Group, marched towards Moscow in a failed coup/uprising event against Putin. Outside markets have equities and US$ lower and energies mostly steady. Corn finished the overnight steady to 1 higher, soybeans 9 to 13 higher, and wheat 10 to 16 higher.
Export inspections will be out later this morning and then updated crop progress and conditions later this afternoon. I would expect to see fall crop conditions lower again across the Corn Belt and HRW harvest still delayed.
This week’s rains forecasted to be the heaviest in the Northeast, again only scattered ½ to 1” rains expected across the major growing areas. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps out West and in the Southeast with below normal centered on the Plains and normal to above normal moisture across the U.S. except on the West Coast.
July corn up to $6.72 ½ last week with resistance from there up to $6.75 and support at $6.20. December corn also a new recent high last week at $6.29 ¾, resistance next at $6.37 and support at $5.72 ½. August soybeans tested resistance at $14.47 last week with support around $13.80. November soybeans up to $13.78 with resistance next around the $14 level and support at $12.90. July KC wheat back trading in the upper half of the recent trading range with resistance at $8.91 and support at $8.30. July Chicago wheat a new recent high overnight at $7.56 ¾, resistance next at $8.10 and support around $6.90. July MPLS wheat has support at $8.30 and resistance at $8.91. July soybean meal has support at $408 and resistance at $442.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
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