Date: June 14th, 2023
Cattle futures came roaring back from early losses while lean hogs traded lower on Tuesday. Both fats and feeders were triple digits lower as corn was cruising $.08 to $.10 higher. By midday though, corn starting fading and cattle starting to rally, able to absorb a few pennies gain in corn. Beef prices continue higher, equities were higher and cash fed cattle trade expected to be higher again this week as well. Only light volume trade so far this week as been reported in the WCB at $298 dressed. Showlists appear to be a bit smaller in TX only this week.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/13/2023 – Final
This Week: 4,179 Last Week: 3,973 Last Year: 1,754
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves under 600 lbs. sold 3.00-6.00 lower. Heavier weight feeders sold 2.00-4.00 higher. Demand was moderate on a heavy supply. Quality was below average with a lot of colored up cattle in the offering. Receipts continue to run higher than normal as the lack of rain is effecting both hay yields and pasture conditions.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/13/2023 – Final
This Week: 4,321 Last Week: 4,465 Last Year: 1,890
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold mostly steady but with spots 5.00 higher, mainly on the yearling steers. Demand was good for another heavy supply of calves and yearlings with several loads and large strings offered. The quality was mostly attractive but there were a few more un-weaned calves this week.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 126,000 head, up 1,000 from last week and up 2,000 from last year, but Monday’s slaughter reduced by 3,000 to 122,000. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 470,000 head, also up 1,000 compared to a week ago and matching a year ago, but Monday’s revised 10,000 lower to 457,000.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday higher on Choice but lower on Select on good demand with 137 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__337.99 +.56
Select Cutout__309.48 -.76
CME Feeder Cattle Index__228.20 +.21
CME Lean Hog Index__85.41 +.68
Pork Carcass Cutout __89.52 +1.32
June live cattle hit a new contract and all-time spot high last Wednesday at $182.87 before reversing lower holding support at $177 with the next at $175. The contract is in the delivery but still holding a steep discount to the current cash trade, meaning a strong positive basis, which is great for those hedged and should mitigate any chance of delivery. August feeders also hit a new contract high last Wednesday at $245.17, 1 tick shy of matching the all-time spot high from October 2014. Nearby support from the 20-day moving average now at $237.30 with the next down at $231.50. June lean hogs expire today looking to hold right around $87. July will then be the front month and is already showing strong gains this month. The contract low was hit on May 26th at $74.02. The lower trend was taken out last week and now looking to test resistance at $94 with support at $85.25.
Soybeans took the reins on Tuesday and led the way higher as corn followed for most of the day but sold off into the close and wheat again finished mixed. Bean conditions nationwide dropped 3% from the previous week to 59% rated good to excellent, but notably are the worst for this time of year since 2013. Corn conditions also down 3% but rated a little better in comparison at 61% good to excellent. Honestly, it’s a bit early to be talking soybean conditions, but this along with mostly dry skies in the Corn Belt, only scattered chances over the next week and warming temps was enough to spur the rally. Rallying veg oils also supportive for beans with soybean oil up $.10/lb. over the past couple weeks. This doesn’t sound like much, but that’s a 20% price rally and it continues to be the daily percentage leader here recently. Wheat harvest has begun in KS but will be slow as more rains are expected this week.
All grains lower overnight on some profit taking and mixed forecasts. It looks like corn and beans needed to take a breather from the recent run higher. KC wheat trending lower as harvest continues to push forward, slowly though with recent rains delaying some activity. Rainfall the past 24 hours for the Corn Belt limited to ½ to 2 inches in OH, northern IN and just clipping Chicago, IL. Sometimes that is all it takes, a shower in Chicago to pressure grains, of course that was when trade pits were active. Corn finished the overnight 6 to 9 lower, soybeans 5 to 8 lower, and wheat 7 to 12 lower. Outside markets showing equities steady to lower, US$ lower and energies higher with crude up $.70/barrel.
Some models calling for additional rain chances for the ECB next week although the NWS 7 day precip map moved rains further South with heavy amounts expected across the Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps from the Gulf up through the Corn Belt with below normal temps out West and above normal moisture in the Northwest and Southeast with below normal in Southwest and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.
July corn up to $6.25 yesterday with resistance at $6.40 and support at $5.95. December corn broke through nearby resistance yesterday and topped out at $5.59 ½, the highest price since April 20th. Resistance next at $5.71 with support at $5.20. August soybeans, since most locations now have old crop bids vs. August, hit a new recent high yesterday at $13.34 ¾ with resistance next at $13.45 ½ and support at $12.55. November soybeans also a new high for the month at $12.49 ¼ with resistance next at $12.53 and support at $11.67. July KC wheat still very choppy, but short term trending lower with support at $7.64 and resistance at $8.47. July Chicago wheat still holding the long-term lower trend with support at $6.11 and resistance at $6.49. July MPLS wheat also still showing a long term lower trend with support at $7.75 and resistance at $8.38. July soybean meal trending lower the past few months with support at $395 and resistance at $408.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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