Date: June 9th, 2023
Cattle futures again traded both sides of unchanged yesterday but finished near their lows as grains, yes even corn this time, held gains. Lean hogs were mixed on Thursday but so far holding week over week gains for the 2nd week in a row. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade volume picked up first in the North from $188 to $194 live, $2 to $7 higher vs. last week, and $298 to $302 dressed, $8 to $12 higher. TX and KS trade reported mostly at $185 live, $5 higher than last week. KS sales still may not be quite wrapped up with the top end up to $188.
Winter Livestock – Pratt, KS
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/8/2023 – Final
This Week: 2,297 Last Week: 2,741 Last Year: 2,551
Compared to last week ,feeder steers 750 lb to 975 lb sold 8.00 to 12.00 higher. Steers 600 lb to 750 lb sold 12.00 to 15,00 higher. Not enough steers under 600 lb for a market test, however a higher trend was noted. Feeder heifers 500 lb to 800 lb sold 7.00 to 10.00 higher on light receipts. Not enough heifers under 500 lb for a market test, however a higher trend was noted. Demand was good.
Mitchell Livestock Auction – Mitchell, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/8/2023 – Final
This Week: 6,726 Last Week: 1,756 Last Year: 9,731
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers 10.00 to 20.00 higher. 8 weight index steers averaged $220-$235.
Cattle slaughter on Thursday estimated at 125,000 head, down 2,000 from last week while matching last year. This brings week to date to 495,000 head, up 113,000 from the holiday shortened week previous but down 4,000 from last year.
Hog slaughter estimated at 459,000 head, down 21,000 compared to a week ago and down 14,000 compared to a year ago. Week to date now at 1,857,000 head, up 414,000 compared to the week previous but down 43,000 compared to year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Thursday still rolling higher on good demand with 109 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__328.73 +3.54, +22.89 so far this month
Select Cutout__304.10 +2.54
CME Feeder Cattle Index__222.20 +2.92
CME Lean Hog Index__83.04 +1.18 from 6/6
Pork Carcass Cutout __85.68 +.53
June live cattle hit a new contract and all-time spot high on Wednesday at $182.87 before reversing lower with support at $175. The contract is in the delivery but still holding a step discount to the current cash trade, meaning a strong positive basis, which is great for those hedged and should mitigate any chance of delivery. August feeders also hit a new contract high on Wednesday at $245.17, 1 tick shy of matching the all-time spot high hit back in October 2014. Nearby support is at $238 with the next down at $233.50. June lean hogs with a decent recovering since making a new contract low back on May 26th at $75.45. Resistance next at $92 and nearby support at $83.60.
Wheat led the grains higher on Thursday as the markets continue to trade dry conditions in the ECB vs. forecasted beneficial rainfall over the next few days. The US drought monitor was updated yesterday for the week ending June 6th with 45% of the corn crop currently in drought, 39% of the soybean crop but only 3-5% of the HRS/Durum wheat areas. Weekly export sales surprising had positive net old crop values for all the grains and oilseeds but a net negative value for new crop corn with Mexico cancelling a couple cargoes.
Grains again mixed and trading both sides of unchanged overnight. Corn finished the overnight 2 to 5 lower, soybeans 1 to 3 higher, and wheat 4 lower to 3 higher. Outside markets have equities mixed, US$ steady to higher and energies steady. USDA announced another surprise export sale this morning for 197,000 MT or 7.2 MBU of old crop soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations.
USDA crop report coming out later this morning. The average trade estimates are looking for slightly higher old crop and new crop corn and bean stocks, but little to no change yet to new crop yields. Remember this report is based on conditions as of June 1st not June 9th. Markets also looking for slightly higher U.S. old crop wheat stocks and new crop production, but little to no changes for new crop wheat stocks or world wheat figures. Their continues to be estimates looking for reduced Argentine corn and soybean production numbers and higher production numbers out of Brazil. Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported yesterday in their weekly report that Argentina soybean harvest now 94% complete and total production would only be 21 MMT. USDA last month left their estimate unchanged at 27 MMT.
Scattered showers still in the forecast over the weekend and into early next week although some of the ECB rains that were expected on Sunday now being pushed back. NWS 7 day accumulation map showing 1” rains across the Corn Belt except a little less than previously posted and less for NW IA, MN and WI. The heaviest amounts now are in the Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps from the Gulf up into the Corn Belt with below normal still in the Southwest and above normal moisture out West and in the Southeast.
July corn still holding right around the $6 level with resistance up at $6.40 and support around $5.80. December has resistance at $5.48, this week’s high so far, and held support yesterday at $5.20. July soybeans up to a new recent high at $13.72 overnight with resistance next at $14.11 and support at $13.22. The November contract hit a new recent low last week at $11.30 ½ and with resistance being tested this week right around the $12 mark. July KC wheat still very choppy with support at $7.63 ¾ and resistance at $8.49 ½. July Chicago wheat still holding the long-term lower trend, down to a new low last week at $5.73 ¼ and resistance at $6.64. July MPLS wheat also still showing a long term lower trend with support at $7.75 and resistance at $8.38. July soybean meal trending lower the past few months with a new 10-month low last week at $386.3 and resistance at $417.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
IMPORTANT—PLEASE NOTE
This does constitute a solicitation to buy or sell commodities futures and/or options. The information contained herein is provided for informational purposes only. The information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness, although the information was taken from sources we believe to be reliable. The market recommendations of Loewen and Associates, Inc. are based solely on the judgment of Loewen and Associates, Inc. personnel. We do not guarantee or warranty, either expressed or implied, of success to you in the use of this information. Loewen and Associates, Inc. disclaims responsibility for or loss associated with use of information from our commentary, analysis or recommendations. There is risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. The risk in trading can be substantial; therefore only genuine “risk” funds should be used.