Date: June 21st, 2023
The cattle complex continued their downward action during yesterday’s trade as both fats and feeders are taking a breather from the very steep run up from about two weeks ago. It is not surprising to see some pull back after such a run to new high territory, but typically these periods of correction haven’t lasted more than a couple weeks. Those new highs that were made were heavily supported by a negotiated cash market that was screaming higher at the same time, but the cash market has cooled down a bit as well. Last week volumes were very light at steady to $5 lower than the week previous, showlists appear light this week and I wouldn’t expect to see much trade until Thursday or Friday again this week. Higher cash hogs and higher pork prices continue to support the recent rally in lean hog futures.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/19/2023 – Final
This Week: 8,291 Last Week: 11,519 Last Year: 5,584
Compared to last week feeder steers under 525 lbs. sold steady to 4.00 lower with heavier weights selling steady to 5.00 higher. Feeder heifers under 500 lbs. sold 2.00-8.00 lower with heavier weights selling steady to 6.00 higher. Supply was heavy with good demand. 7 weight index steers averaged $231 and 8 weights averaged $218 to $221.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/20/2023 – Final
This Week: 4,301 Last Week: 4,179 Last Year: 2,579
Compared to last week, steer calves under 700 lbs. were mostly steady with like weight heifer calves steady to 4.00 higher. Yearling steers and heifers sold steady to 2.00 higher. Demand was moderate on a heavy supply. A good variety of calves were in the offering including several pot or multi-pot load drafts. One stick out draft was 60 head of 901 lb. steers that brought 219.75.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/19/2023 – Final
This Week: 6,067 Last Week: 10,143 Last Year: 6,356
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 2.00 lower. Heifers steady to 3.00 higher. Steer calves unevenly steady. Heifer calves steady to 2.00 higher. Demand moderate to good. Quality average to attractive. 7 weight index steers averaged $228 and 8 weights averaged $217 to $222.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 127,000 head, up 1,000 from last week but down 1,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 469,000 head, down 1,000 compared to a week ago and a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values lower for the 2nd day in row on good demand with 121 loads sold.
Choice Cutout @ 336.91 -3.23, Select Cutout @ 307.93 -2.83
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 222.68, Lean Hog Index @ 88.21
Pork Carcass Cutout on Tuesday -1.44 @ 94.62
June live cattle breaking nearby support last week and hitting a new recent low at $176.30 with support next at $175. Still no deliveries as cash remains premium to futures. August feeders posting 2 key reversals lower over the past 2 weeks, gapping lower this morning taking out more support lines with the next the low from May at $221.15 and nearby resistance at $236.40. July lean hogs gapping higher yesterday and up to a new recent high at $95.97 with resistance next at $96.67 and support at $89.70.
Grains started this week with both corn and soybeans gapping higher in the overnight, backing off to trade in the red some, but in the end both new crop corn and beans were content on settling near steady. Through Tuesday, December corn has now rallied $1.18 over the past month and November soybeans $2.34 higher just this month. KC and MPLS wheat held lower most of the day as Chicago wheat rallied and continues to close the large discount to the other two. Back in May, nearby Chicago futures hit a new all-time record at $2.85 discount to KC with July to July now only $1.40 discount.
Export inspections for the week ending June 15th were delayed until yesterday afternoon due to technical difficulties in data collection. Corn inspections still above the average needed, but dwindling to 34.5 MBU. Soybean inspections also lower at 6.8 MBU, wheat inspections continue to disappoint at only 8.7 MBU and only 50k BU of grain sorghum shipped to Mexico last week.
Crop conditions after the close down more than expected with G/E rated corn down 6% to now 55% nationwide, the lowest for mid-June since 1992 and G/E soybeans down 5% to 54%. The worst state overall continues to be MI with only 32% G/E corn and 23% G/E soybeans. IL not far behind though dropping 12 points in G/E corn to 36% and dropping 14 points in G/E soybeans to 33%. IA still above the national average but dropping 10-11% last week. Winter wheat harvest now behind the average pace at 15% nationally and KS only 8% complete.
All grains higher again overnight. Outside markets have equities lower, US$ higher and energies steady. Corn finished the overnight 10 to 16 higher, soybeans 10 to 20 higher, and wheat 10 to 15 higher. Quite a few world wheat estimates coming in lower than a month ago across Europe and even Russia.
Other news remains light as weather continues to dominate market direction. Storms rolling through central KS to SD overnight and this morning, great for additional moisture but most certainly not desired on mature wheat. This week’s rains forecasted to be the heaviest in the Northern Plains and in the Southeast with only scattered and less 1” rains across most of the Corn Belt. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps from the Gulf up into the WCB and covering the Southern Plains with below normal temps still on the West Coast and now over the Great Lakes and above normal moisture for the northern ½ of the U.S. with below normal in the South.
July corn up to a new recent high overnight and making new highs this morning with strong resistance next at $6.71 and support at $6.20. December corn also new recent highs with resistance next at $6.30 and support around $5.60. August soybeans making new recent highs with resistance next at $14.45 and support around $13.40. November soybeans new recent highs with resistance next around the $14 level and support at $12.40. July KC wheat still very choppy but also hitting new recent highs with resistance next at $9.18 ¾ and support at $8.30. July Chicago wheat took out the long-term lower trend last week with resistance next at $7.35 and support at $6.28. July MPLS wheat still showing a long-term lower trend with support at $7.75 and resistance at $8.88. July soybean meal trending lower the past few months, but sharply higher the past few trading sessions with support at $401 and resistance at $442.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
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