Author: ploewen

A moderate drop in corn futures trade yesterday was accompanied by some massive gains in the feeder cattle futures. I think it helped immensely that the deferred live cattle months were up strongly as well. After the April live contract went off the board, the typical June futures discount was mildly outside of historical normal levels based on Southern trade last week, but it was way undervalued versus some of the action in the north. June was up $3 at one point and settled just over $2.50 higher and that narrowed the gap to much closer to normal in Texas and Kansas, but still strong discount for anything north. Futures need to come up or cash needs to come down, but reality states we’ve got…

Date: May 2nd, 2022 Livestock futures again mostly lower on Friday and week over week sharply lower. Lean hogs triple digits lower 3 out of the 5 days last week. All the charts look ugly as both cattle contracts and lean hogs ended the week hitting new recent lows. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was again reported early in the week and I had hoped would provide some support. Trade in the South was steady at mostly $140 live along with trade in the North from $144 to $146 live and mostly $232 dressed. The top end trades though were not as high as the previous week and some delivery slated for mid to last half May. For the week, Friday April 22nd through Friday…

Date: April 27th, 2022 Mixed livestock markets on Tuesday with mostly higher grains. Cattle futures started the week under heavy pressure stemming from a bearish cattle on feed report after the close last Friday and bearish outside market influence on Monday. Live cattle futures caught a bid yesterday as packers are still short bought and cash trade already developing this week at steady to higher money. Southern cattle began trading on Monday at $140 live, fully steady with a week ago as northern cattle trade followed at $1 to $2 higher from $144 to $146 live and $230 to $236 on a dressed basis. Feeders remained under pressure on Tuesday with grains higher. Most contracts are still $2 to $3 away from the recent spike…

Grain and oilseed trade was kind of a fiasco yesterday. Outside markets were highly volatile early with the dollar up and equities down sharply, but the extremeness of those markets calmed down quite a bit into the close. 8am daily USDA export reporting had folks hyped up early that it’d be a great day, but it wasn’t such a great day. The flash sales included 330k mt’s of US soybean sales to China and another 204k mt’s of US beans to China. Some of that total was old crop as well. Weekly export inspections data was bullish corn, soybeans and milo and bearish wheat. The corn number was a new marketing year high at 65 mln bushels versus 50.2 mln needed each week to hit…

Date: April 25th, 2022 Grain and livestock futures mixed to end last week as well as week over week changes. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade $2 to $7 higher with live trade in South from $139 to $141. Trade in the North saw the biggest gains with live trade ranging from $144 to $148 and dressed trade from $228 to $236. After the close, USDA released a bearish Cattle on Feed report with total on feed as of April 1st at 12.1 million head, up 2% from a year ago. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.99 million head, slightly below 2021, but expectations were down 8%. This is the largest first quarter placements in 22 years. Marketings of fed cattle during March totaled 2.00…

Date: April 18th, 2022 It was a mixed day for the livestock and grain futures on Thursday as we wrapped up a week due to markets being closed on Good Friday. Mostly triple digit gains for cattle and hogs week over week. Cash fed cattle trade steady to $2 higher in KS and TX at $139 live and steady to $4 higher in the North at $140 to $145 live and $224 to $231 on a dressed basis. Beef weekly export sales and shipments fairly routine for the week ending April 7th while pork sales slipped lower but shipments were bullish. For the week, Friday April 8th through Thursday April 14th, April Live Cattle +$2.85, June +$2.60, April Feeder Cattle +$1.65, May +$2.40, August +$.80,…

Date: April 13th, 2022 It was actually a green or buyers day across all the markets with almost all livestock futures higher and nearby contracts triple digits higher. Cash fed cattle trade early in the week again but this time at higher money with trade in KS & TX up $1 from last week at $139 live and in the North up to $142 live and $221 to $224 on a dressed basis. Equities were higher during the morning trading hours but faded as the day progressed. Energies higher with crude pushing back above $100/barrel. Grains higher as well with corn into new contract highs July forward yet not providing normal pressure to feeders. The weather on Tuesday was just as crazy as the markets…

Not a lot of logic going on in the early stages of the feeder cattle trade yesterday. Live cattle started flat and the corn market was mildly higher, but the feeder market went through some bouts of big time pressure. Prices pushed beyond $2 lower in a lot of months early on, came back up some, pushed back even lower and then somehow managed to close higher in the net changes in all but the August contract. Chart technicals look ugly in feeders with several contract months knocking at the door of contract lows. The fundamentals are lining up with the technicals fairly well though with corn hitting new contract highs and the live cattle market stagnant to lower. If we could get the cash…

Date: April 11th, 2022 Livestock futures mixed to end the week but sharply lower feeders and lean hogs week over week. Grains rallied sharply providing most of the pressure. Cash fed cattle trade steady to a shade weaker last week and most of the volume seen at the beginning of the week. Cash trade at mostly $137 to $138 live in the KS and TX and in the North at $138 to $140 live and $222 on a dressed basis. USDA updated beef supply for the year slightly higher and left exports unchanged compared to a month ago while reduced both pork and total poultry production and exports. For the week, Friday April 1st through Friday April 8th, April Live Cattle -$.82, June -$2.02, April…

Date: April 6th, 2022 Livestock futures all triple digits lower as gains were again sharply higher on Tuesday. Beef prices though were higher yesterday and daily slaughter rates continue to hold up near the recent top end of capacity. Cash fed cattle already trading as early as Monday at mostly $138 up to $142 live in the North and $222 to $225 on a dressed basis, all in essence remaining steady now for over a month. Some light volume reported yesterday as low as $136 live and $219 dressed. Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City, OK Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/4/2022 This Week: 8,181 Last Week: 8,426 Last Year: 6,800 Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers steady to 3.00 lower.…