Date: June 8th, 2022
Smaller show lists and rising boxed beef prices failed to impress live cattle futures on Monday. Fats held firm on Tuesday though, gaining back all that was lost hoping to see at least steady cash trade this week. No trade yet reported but early asking prices $1 to $2 higher than last week in the South. Only light volume trade so far this week in IA though steady to $3 higher than last week at $141 live and $225 to $227 dressed. Corn double digits higher most of the day kept pressure on feeders, yet nearby contracts were able to finish with small gains. Hogs remain choppy but support coming from higher cash prices.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/6/2022
This Week: 8,396 Last Report 5/23: 10,096 Last Year: 10,282
Compared to two weeks ago: Feeder steers 5.00-8.00 higher. Feeder heifers 6.00-12.00 higher. Steer calves 10.00-12.00 higher. Heifer calves 2.00-6.00 higher. Demand very good for all classes. 7 weight index steers averaging $155-$156 and the 8 weight index steers averaging $153-$154.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/6/2022
This Week: 9,558 Last Report 5/23: 6,435 Last Year: 8,996
Compared to the sale 2 weeks ago, feeder steers under 700 lbs. traded steady with heavier weights trading 4.00-8.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded 5.00-8.00 higher. Supply was heavy with very good demand. 7 weight index steers averaging $161-$163 and the 8 weight index steers averaging $159-$160.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/6/2022
This Week: 7,256 Last Report 5/23: 3,884 Last Year: 1,613
Compared to two weeks ago: 3.00 to 8.00 higher except 650 lbs – 700 lbs steady to 3.00 lower, heifers 4.00 to 8.00 higher except 950 lbs – 1000 lbs steady to 1.00 higher. Demand for this very large offering was excellent. 7 weight index steers averaging $170-$175 and the 8 weight index steers averaging $160-$164.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/7/2022
This Week: 4,435 Last Week: 1,895 Last Year: 3,095
Compared to last week, the majority of steers sold 2.00 to 8.00 higher, but a larger offering of the 450-550 lb steers sold mostly 10.00 higher with spots up to 15.00 higher on increased demand. Heifer calves sold 3.00-8.00 higher, yearlings steady. Supply was heavy and demand was good to very good with quality strings of calves and loads of yearlings making their way through the ring all day. 7 weight index steers averaging $161-$170 and 8 weight averaging $160-$165.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/7/2022
This Week: 3,507 Last Week: 1,652 Last Year: 3,541
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves traded 5.00-10.00 higher. There were too few yearlings last week for an adequate comparison however, undertones were higher. Demand was very good on a moderate supply. 7 weight index steers averaging $159-$169 and 8 weight averaging $156.50.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 126,000 head, matching last week and up 5,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 479,000 head, up 12,000 compared to a week ago but down 4,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday higher on Choice but lower on Select on moderate to good demand with 137 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__271.42 +1.84
Select Cutout__249.56 -1.53
CME Feeder Cattle Index__158.49 -.04
CME Lean Hog Index__107.80 +1.30
Pork Carcass Cutout __107.83 -.96
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__116.85 +4.65, 14,307 head
June live cattle breaking above the most recent lower trend, carving out a bottom last week with a new 8-month low hit at $130.22. Nearby resistance this week being tested around $134 with the next up at $136. August feeders up to a new recent high last Friday at $174.27 with resistance at $175 then $177.50 and support at $168.30. June lean hogs chopping sideways for the past couple weeks, taking out the month long higher trend with support at $107.30 and resistance at $111.60.
The grain markets seemed to be another day of push and pull with soybeans charging higher, wheat sharply lower and corn stuck in between the two but sided with higher soy complex. U.S. weather wet this week but warm and dry next. Corn conditions nationally released for the first time and in better shape overall than expected as planting just caught up the average pace. USDA will update supply and demand this Friday. Not much change expected for domestic stocks so the markets will look for any in South American corn and soybeans production numbers along with EU, Russia, and Ukraine wheat. Speaking of Russia and Ukraine, headlines yesterday were as follows…
– Two Ukraine shipping ports, captured by Russian forces are said to be open to grain shipments, according to Russia’s defense ministry.
-Russia wants Ukraine to de-mine approaches to its Black Sea controlled ports before Russia will allow grain exports. The negotiations continue between Turkey and Russia, but Ukraine stating they have not been invited.
-If Russia refuses to unblock Ukraine sea ports, then Ukraine’s ability to export grains will be capped around 2 MMT per month, well below the 6 MMT prior to the Russian invasion. The official also estimated it would take up to 6 months for Ukraine to de-mine Russia’s mining around Ukraine controlled ports.
Grains higher overnight led by the soybeans with new contract highs both nearby and new crop. Equites pointing lower this morning, US$ higher and crude oil higher, back above $120. Corn finished the overnight 6 to 10 higher, soybeans 12 to 19 higher and wheat 5 to 8 higher.
USDA will update supply and demand on Friday at 11 AM CST. The average trade estimates are as follows…
U.S. Corn old crop ending stocks at 1.437 BBU, May estimate 1.440 BBU
U.S. Corn new crop production at 14.450 BBU, May estimate 14.460 BBU
U.S. Corn new crop yield at 177.1 BPA, May estimate 177.0 BPA
U.S. Corn new crop ending stocks at 1.340 BBU, May estimate 1.360 BBU
Brazil Corn production 114.3 MMT vs. 116.0 in May, CONAB today 115.2 MMT +.6
Argentina Corn production at 52.2 MMT vs. 53 MMT last month
World Corn old crop stocks at 308.8 MMT vs. 309.4 MMT in May
World Corn new crop stocks at 304.5 MMT vs. 305.1 MMT in May
U.S. Soybean old crop ending stocks at 218 MBU, May estimate 235 MBU
U.S. Soybean new crop production at 4.641 BBU, May estimate 4.640 BBU
U.S. Soybean new crop yield at 51.5 BPA, May estimate 51.5 BPA
U.S. Soybean new crop ending stocks at 307 MBU, May estimate 310 MBU
Brazil Soybean production 124.8 MMT vs. 125.0 in May, CONAB today 124.3 +.5
Argentina Soybean production at 42.2 MMT vs. 42 MMT last month
World Soybean old crop stocks at 84.9 MMT vs. 85.2 MMT in May
World Soybean new crop stocks at 99.5 MMT vs. 99.6 MMT in May
U.S. Wheat old crop ending stocks at 666 MBU, May estimate 655 MBU
U.S. Wheat new crop production at 1.713 BBU, May estimate at 1.729 BBU
Winter wheat at 1.174 BBU vs. 1.174 BBU in May
HRW at 585 MBU vs. 590 MBU in May
SRW at 357 MBU vs. 354 MBU in May
WW at 232 MBU vs. 230 MBU in May
U.S. Wheat new crop ending stocks at 614 MBU, May estimate 619 MBU
World Wheat old crop stocks at 279.6 MMT vs. 279.7 MMT in May
World Wheat new crop stocks at 267.3 MMT vs. 267.0 MMT in May
Heavy rains still in the forecast later this week from Central KS down into the Southeast with scattered rains across the Corn Belt. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks getting hotter with much above normal temps and below normal moisture expected across most of the country. This is welcome for most in the short term but not want we want to see setting up for first half of June.
July corn trying to take out the month long lower trend testing resistance around $7.70 overnight with the next up at $7.80 and support at the new recent low last week at $7.20 ½. The December contract also rebounding off a new 2-month low last week at $6.82 with nearby resistance around $7.30. July soybeans a new contract high overnight at $17.54 with support at $16.90. The November contract holding the long term higher trend, also a new contract high overnight at $15.70 with support at $15.20. July KC Wheat finding support last week from $11.20 to $11.12 with resistance at $12.50. July Chicago wheat with support around $10.30 and resistance at $11.70. July MPLS with support at $11.90 and nearby resistance at $12.50. July Soybean Meal with support at $404 and resistance at $436.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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