Date: June 17th, 2022
A mixed day for livestock futures as cattle were mostly lower and lean hogs trending higher this week. Feeders didn’t have a chance from the opening bell with a flat and low volume live cattle trading, equities sharply lower and grains sharply higher. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade most active Tuesday and Wednesday this week at $2 to $7 higher than a week ago. Live trade in the South ranging from $136 to $140 this week and in the North from $140 to a few up at $150 with dressed trade from $230 to $232 and a few up to $235. Premiums still prevalent in the North as we remain very current with supply.
Winter Livestock – Pratt, KS
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/16/2022
This Week: 2,583 Last Week: 2,551 Last Year: 2,200
Compared to last week, feeder steers 725 lb to 900 lb sold 5.00 to 10.00 higher. Outstanding offering of fancy feeder steers. Not enough steers 500 lb to 725 lb for a market test. Feeder heifers 800 lb to 900 lb sold 3.00 to 4.00 higher. Not enough heifers 500 lb to 800 lb for a market test, however a lower trend was noted. 7 weight index steers averaged $183 with 8 weights averaging $169 to $182.
Apache Livestock Auction – Apache, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/16/2022
This Week: 2,251 Last Week: 1,848 Last Year: 1,828
Compared to last week: Feeder steers weighing 600 to 700 lbs. 3.00 to 5.00 lower, over 700 lbs. 3.00 higher. Feeder heifers 1.00 to 3.00 higher. Steer calves mostly 4.00 to 6.00 lower. Heifer calves 1.00 to 3.00 lower.
Woodward Livestock Auction Feeder Cattle – Woodward, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/16/2022
This Week: 2,044 Last Week: 2,023 Last Year: 4,497
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 2.00 to 5.00 higher. Feeder heifers steady to 3.00 higher. Steer calves mostly steady. Heifer calves 2.00 to 6.00 higher.
Mitchell Livestock Auction – Mitchell, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/16/2022
This Week: 3,885 Last Week: 9,731 Last Year: 3,036
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 850-1000 lbs. sold steady to 4.00 higher, steers 1150-1200 lbs. sold 4.00 higher. A steady undertone was noted on heifers up to 800 lbs. Heifers 800-1000 lbs. sold 1.00-4.00 higher. 8 weight index steers averaging $170.
Cattle slaughter from Thursday estimated at 127,000 head, up 1,000 from last week and up 6,000 from last year. Week to date now running 8,000 head behind last week. Hog slaughter from Thursday estimated at 466,000 head, down 10,000 compared to a week ago and down 15,000 compared to a year ago. Week to date now running 40,000 head behind last week.
Boxed beef cutout values lower for the third day in row on Thursday on moderate to good demand with 128 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__267.16 -1.06
Select Cutout__245.38 -.30
CME Feeder Cattle Index__160.08 from 6/14
CME Lean Hog Index__108.92 +.35
Pork Carcass Cutout __111.36 +5.57
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__117.34 -2.52, 6,999 head
June live cattle just barely tipping past $138 yesterday with support down at $134 then $132.50 and resistance at the $140 level, the spike high back in April, then the contract high at $143.35 from February. August feeders back in the channel lower trend with support down at $169.40 and resistance at the three spike highs over the past three months from $176.87 just last week to $178.22 back in April. July lean hogs a new high for the week with support holding from $103.50 to $104 and resistance at $110.60 then $114.
A positive day for all the grains, except soybean oil as it continues to lose ground on crush spread. World veg oils fundamentals are stabilizing and prices have been trending lower now for the past few weeks. Weather just may be getting to that border line threatening point here in the U.S. as the extended forecasts still showing hot and dry over the Corn Belt. Europe also still dealing with hot and dry that could still diminish their wheat crop along with fall forage crops and oilseeds. Private estimates starting to trim EU production estimates some 5 MMT or 184 MBU due to record breaking heat in Spain, France and Germany. The US$ was sharply lower which is supportive to the grains but weekly export sales sure weren’t bullish with all coming in near the low end of expectations. Crude with another $5 trading day, lower for the start of the day down to $112/barrel but getting a charge during trading to finish $2 higher. We are still off from the $123 highs last week and early this week and the $130 highs back in March.
Day 4 of the Kansas Wheat Harvest Report giving some indication of the drought hit this year as we move from south-central into southwest KS. Wheat harvest began around Dodge City on June 12 and will be wrapped up before the 4th of July. A wide range of yields from 6 to 60 BPA with the average expected to be around 35 BPA this year.
Grains mixed overnight along with outside markets as most showing somewhat quiet trade. There could be some traders taking an early exit as all markets are closed on Monday. Corn finished the overnight 10 to 12 higher, soybeans 6 to 8 higher and wheat 4 lower to 2 higher. Two private corn export sales announced by USDA this morning…105,664 MT or 4.2 MBU of old crop corn for unknown destinations and 144,907 MT or 5.7 MBU of new crop corn for delivery to Costa Rica.
The “Lower Food and Fuel Costs” Act passed the U.S. House last night and will move on to the Senate. Reportedly, it will make a permanent fix to year round E-15, targets consolidation in the meat packing industry and could lower fertilizer prices. However, in remarks on the House floor, House Agriculture Committee ranking member Glenn “GT” Thompson, R-Pa., says the bill “does nothing to lower food and fuel costs.” On Wednesday Thompson introduced H.R. 8069, the “Reducing Farm Input Costs and Barriers to Domestic Production Act”. The bill requires the Biden administration to reverse its regulatory barriers to domestic agriculture production by providing relief from EPA’s actions on crop protection tools, provide clarity on WOTUS regulations, rescind the SEC climate rule and require an economic analysis of the costs and benefits of the Packers and Stockyards rule updates.
Heavy rains overnight and this morning from SE NE & NE KS across northern MO and central IL. Excessive heat still in the forecast into the middle of next week. The 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps for the majority of the country with below normal moisture expect a pocket of above normal moisture in Southwest. The 8-14 day outlook issued yesterday now takes us to the end of June showing the same forecast.
July corn now holding a 3-week long higher trend after the new recent low at $7.20 ½ with nearby support at $7.58 and resistance at $8.10. The December contract has support at $7.07, broke the $7.40 resistance this week with the next the contract high from May 16th at $7.66 ¼. July soybeans a new contract high last week at $17.84, dipping down to a new 2-week low this week at $16.82 ¼ with the next support down around $16.70. The November contract holding the long-term higher trend, also a new contract high last week at $15.84 ¾ with support at $15.16. July KC Wheat rangebound so far this month with support at $11.12 and resistance at $11.85. July Chicago wheat with support at $10.27 and resistance at $11.09. July MPLS wheat with support at $11.90 and resistance at $12.48. July Soybean Meal with support at $404 and resistance at $437.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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