Date: June 13th, 2022
Cattle futures finished the week lower while lean hogs rebounded some but still finished the week lower. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was $2 to $3 higher at $137 live in the South and $142 to $143 live in North with dressed trade mostly at $225 to $226. USDA updated the meats balance sheet on Friday morning. Beef production for 2022 increased by 65 mln lbs as well as exports as imports were reduced by 30 mln lbs. Pork production increased by 180 mln lbs but exports down 60 mln while imports increased by 35 mln lbs. Total poultry production decreased by 111 mln lbs but exports increased by 30 mln.
For the week, Friday June 3rd through Friday June 10th, June Live Cattle +$2.60, August +$2.35, August Feeder Cattle +$.60, September -$.25, June Lean Hogs -$2.40, July -$5.27. Boxed Beef, Choice +$4.06 @ $271.32, Select +$1.13 @ $248.89, Pork Carcass Cutout +$.22 @ $109.16.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/5/2022 – 6/11/2022
Current Week: 28,336 Last Report 5/30/22: 12,647 Last Year: 37,502
Compared to last week’s light test: Feeder steers and heifers 3.00-6.00 higher. Steer calves 8.00-12.00 higher. Heifer calves sold 4.00-7.00 higher. Demand very good for all classes.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 124,000 head and Saturday 47,000 head. For the week, 674,000 head, up 71,000 from the week previous and up 4,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 548.2 million pounds with the year to date difference at +1.1% vs. last year and year to date slaughter remaining at +1.0%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 446,000 head and Saturday only 19,000 head. For the week, 2,372,000 head, up 328,000 compared to the week previous but down 60,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 515.1 million pounds with year to date pork production at -4.0% compared to a year ago and hog slaughter -4.5%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on Choice but lower on Select on moderate demand with 110 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__271.32 +.22
Select Cutout__248.89 -.72
CME Feeder Cattle Index__161.87 +2.07
CME Lean Hog Index__107.19 -.46
Pork Carcass Cutout __109.16 +.07
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__115.30 -2.69, 3,968 head
June live cattle gapping to a new recent high last week at $137.35 with resistance next up at $140 and support down around $133. August feeders spiking to a new high for the month at $176.87 with resistance at $177.50 and support at $171. June lean hogs a new low for the month with support at $105 and resistance at $111.60.
Grains mixed to end the week but bouncing higher week over week mostly on hot and dry forecasts here in the U.S. and the continued Russia invasion of Ukraine. The USDA crop report on Friday was mixed. Winter wheat production up 8 MBU compared to a month ago as white wheat was increase 12 MBU, SRW increased 4 MBU but HRW down 8 MBU. Old crop ending stocks were left unchanged which was friendly as the new crop stocks increased only due to the production increase. Old crop corn stocks increased and old crop soybean stocks decreased. USDA left corn production estimates for Brazil and Argentina unchanged and increased both soybean numbers while most were looking for further reductions.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed fund money through the trade week ending 6/7 as net sellers, -4.6k corn (net long 264.3k), -2.3k Chicago wheat (net long 12.6k), -3.1k KC wheat (net long 37.4k), -5.7k beans (net long 158.9k).
For the week, Friday June 3rd through Friday June 10th, July Corn +$.46 ¼, December +$.30 ½, July Soybeans +$.47 ¾, November +$.41 ¼, July KC Wheat +$.41 ½, September +$.41, July Chicago Wheat +$.30 ¾, September +$.33, July MPLS Wheat +$.29 ¾, September +$.27 ¾, July Soybean Meal +$21.20, October +$11.90.
Not much for new news over the weekend, forecasts still primarily hot and dry in most major growing areas. Equities sharply lower as inflation continues. Energies backing off so far this morning. More lockdowns in China and world veg oils continue to slide lower providing pressure on the soy complex overnight. Corn finished the overnight 5 to 7 higher, soybeans 15 to 19 lower, and wheat 9 to 12 higher.
Excessive heat now in this week’s forecast with scattered rains for the WCB. This heat will be beneficial nearby and for the short term but could become harmful is long lasting. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps and below normal moisture for the majority of the country with below normal temps and above normal moisture moving in from the West.
July corn now holding a 2-week long higher trend after the new recent low on June 1st at $7.20 ½ but testing resistance around $7.82 the past few trading sessions. The December contract has support $6.82 with resistance around $7.30. July soybeans a new contract high last week at $17.84 with support around $16.90. The November contract holding the long-term higher trend, also a new contract high last week at $15.84 ¾ with support around $15.20. July KC Wheat finding support on the first at $11.12 with resistance at $11.85. July Chicago wheat with support at $10.27 and resistance at $11.09. July MPLS wheat with support at $11.90 and nearby resistance at $12.50. July Soybean Meal with support at $404 and resistance at $437.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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