Date: June 27th, 2022
Livestock futures finished out last week on a higher note but steady to lower week over week. Even with the sharply lower grains, feeders could only hold their ground, still very choppy trading as fats were pressured lower. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade steady to lower in the South at $137 to $138 live but mostly higher in the North at $145 to $150 live and $234 to $238 dressed.
A slightly friendly Cattle on Feed report after the close on Friday…On Feed right in line with expectations at 1% above a year ago, but another record on feed number for the month of June at 11.846 million head. Bullish Placements, 1.869 million, 2% below a year ago and under the bottom end of the range. Marketings during May of 1.914 million, 2% above last year, but below the bottom end of the range.
For the week, Friday June 17th through Friday June 24th, June Live Cattle -$2.67, August -$3.20, August Feeder Cattle -$.45, September +$.27, July Lean Hogs -$.07, August -$1.10. Beef, Choice -$1.28 @ $264.98, Select -$1.51 @ $245.02, Pork Carcass Cutout -$2.41 @ $112.20.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/19/22-6/25/02
Current Week: 24,995 Last Report 6/13/22: 26,653 Last Year: 31,259
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 2.00-5.00 higher. Feeder heifers 1.00-4.00 higher. Demand, again very good as numbers of feeder cattle decline quickly. Last year for the week 74 percent of cattle reported weighed over 600 lbs vs this year with 62 percent over 600 lbs. Steer and heifer calves sold 3.00-6.00 higher. Demand very good for calves.
Cattle slaughter on Friday estimated at 122,000 head and Saturday 46,000 head. For the week, 666,000 head, down 1,000 from the week previous but up 6,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 539.1 million pounds with year to date beef production and cattle slaughter now both 1.0% ahead of last year.
Hog slaughter on Friday estimated at 433,000 head and Saturday at only 20,000 head. For the week, 2,304,000 head, down 68,000 compared to the week previous and down 50,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 499.4 million pounds with year to date pork production now down 3.7% compared to a year ago and slaughter down 4.3%.
Boxed beef cutout values steady to higher on Monday on moderate demand with 85 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__264.98 +.32
Select Cutout__245.02 +.08
CME Feeder Cattle Index__163.71 -1.52
CME Lean Hog Index__110.91 +.22
Pork Carcass Cutout __112.20 +2.43
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__120.23 -.59, 8,140 head
June live cattle will expire this Thursday, filling all the gaps this month, except for a gap lower move back in April. August live cattle have filled all the gaps from earlier this month, now below all major moving averages with support next around $132.50 and resistance at $136. August feeders chopping in a $7 range this month with resistance in a range from $176.87 to $178.22, the three spike highs over the past three months, and support at $170.50. July lean hogs testing resistance just shy of $113 last week with support at the June low of $103.50.
Corn and soybeans got a little bounce to end the week as wheat continued to slide lower. All grains hammered throughout the week as U.S. weather forecasts look less threatening, some scattered rains moved thorough the WCB and of course Northern Hemisphere Winter Wheat Harvest continues at a brisk pace. Most expecting a larger Russian wheat crop but lower EU crop. The markets will keep focused on the weather this week along with a quarterly stocks and updated acreage estimates by USDA on Thursday. Funds trimming long positions last week in all except soybean meal.
For the week, Friday June 17th through Friday June 24th, July Corn -$.34 ¼, December -$.57, July Soybeans -$.91 ¼, November -$1.13 ¼, July KC Wheat -$1.12 ½, September -$1.13 ¾, July Chicago Wheat -$1.10 ½, September -$1.10 ¼, July MPLS Wheat -$.98 ¾, September -$.99 ½, July Soybean Meal -$5.50/T, October -$15.80/T.
Grains were mixed overnight with wheat and corn under pressure but soybeans staying in the green. Equites and energies are steady to higher with the US$ lower. Corn finished the overnight 6 to 14 lower, soybeans 7 to 10 higher, and wheat steady to 6 higher.
Scattered rains over the weekend throughout the Corn Belt and much milder temps expected this week compared to the past couple weeks. This providing the pressure to start the week along with the 6-10 day and 8-14 day maps still showing above normal temps for most major growing areas but now with above normal moisture.
July corn finding support at $7.34, touching $7.33 overnight and the next down at the low for the month at $7.20 ½ with resistance at $7.70. The December contract down to $6.45 ½ for a low last week with support next at $6.30 and resistance at $7.05. July soybeans down to $15.83 for a new recent low last week, able to stay above that overnight, with support next at $15.78 and resistance around $16.70. The November contract just breaking the $14 barrier last week with resistance at $14.80. July KC Wheat yet another new recent low overnight with support next at $9.53 and resistance at $10.75. July Chicago wheat also another new recent low with support next at $8.50 and resistance at $10.30. July MPLS wheat support next at $10.60 and resistance at $11.70. July Soybean Meal with support around $420 and breaking above the $440 resistance overnight with the next up at $450.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
IMPORTANT—PLEASE NOTE
This does constitute a solicitation to buy or sell commodities futures and/or options. The information contained herein is provided for informational purposes only. The information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness, although the information was taken from sources we believe to be reliable. The market recommendations of Loewen and Associates, Inc. are based solely on the judgment of Loewen and Associates, Inc. personnel. We do not guarantee or warranty, either expressed or implied, of success to you in the use of this information. Loewen and Associates, Inc. disclaims responsibility for or loss associated with use of information from our commentary, analysis or recommendations. There is risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. The risk in trading can be substantial; therefore only genuine “risk” funds should be used.