Date: June 29th, 2022
A complete flip in the Ag markets on Tuesday with grains higher and livestock futures lower. There’s been a lot of pressure recently on the grains, so to see a little bounce yesterday was not that unexpected. The updated weather forecasts yesterday still calling for some scattered rains over this week mostly in the western and northern Corn Belt. The extended forecasts also got a little hotter and moving some moisture further north, still clipping the Corn Belt though. Feeders led the way lower for cattle as they continue to bounce back and forth at the mercy of the grains. Cash fed cattle trade still yet to develop sizeable volume with some light $144 live trade in the North yesterday. Hogs lower along with cash and pork as the market looks for more direction after this afternoon’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report from USDA.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/27/2022
This Week: 7,633 Last Week: 6,356 Last Year: 8,842
Compared to last week: Feeder steers over 800 lbs 2.00-6.00 higher; under 800 lbs steady to 2.00 lower. Feeder heifers 1.00-4.00 lower. Demand moderate to good for feeder cattle. Steer and heifer calves 2.00-4.00 higher. The 7 weight index steers in OKC averaged $164-$169 with the 8 weight index steers averaging $159-$164.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/27/2022
This Week: 2,528 Last Week: 1,643 Last Year: 1,901
Compared to last week: Steers 6.00-9.00 higher. Value Added steers 4.00-7.00 higher. Heifers 5.00-8.00 higher. Value Added heifers had a much higher undertone noted. Demand good. Quality good, few attractive.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/27/2022
This Week: 10,440 Last Week: 5,584 Last Year: 8,740
Compared to last week feeder steers traded 5.00-8.00 higher with feeder heifers trading steady to 4.00 higher. Supply was heavy with very good demand. 7 weight index steers averaging $169-$173 and the 8 weight index steers averaging $167.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/28/2022
This Week: 6,094 Last Week: 2,579 Last Year: 3,529
Compared to last week, steers and heifers under 800 lbs traded 3.00-7.00 higher with spots 12.00 higher while heavier weights traded steady. Demand was good on a heavy supply.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/27/2022
This Week: 3,113 Last Week: 969 Last Year: 1,873
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 750lbs – 800lbs steady to 4.00 lower, 900lbs – 950lbs steady to 2.00 higher, over 1000lbs sold with significantly higher undertones. Feeder heifers 750lbs -850lbs steady to 4.00 higher, 850lbs – 900lbs steady to 4.00 lower, 1000lbs and over sold with higher undertones. 7 weight index steers averaging $179-$185 and the 8 weight index steers averaging $175.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 126,000 head, matching last week and up 5,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 450,000 head, down 18,000 compared to a week ago and down 13,000 compared to a year ago. Monday’s hog slaughter revised down to 458,000 head.
Boxed beef cutout values lower on Tuesday on good demand with 154 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__267.14 -1.54
Select Cutout__243.31 -1.93
CME Feeder Cattle Index__164.20 +1.11
CME Lean Hog Index__111.64 +.29
Pork Carcass Cutout __105.47 -3.56
The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released at 2 PM CST today. The average trade estimates again looking for less inventory, 1% lower for all hogs and pigs, kept for breeding and kept for marketing. The last report in March showed all categories down 2% compared to a year ago.
June live cattle expire tomorrow. August live cattle have filled all the gaps from earlier this month and holding below all major moving averages so far this week. Price support down at $132.35 then at $130 with resistance at $136. August feeders chopping in a $7 range this month with resistance around $176 and support at $171.40 then $170.50. July lean hogs trading around a $10 range this month with resistance just shy of $113 and nearby support at $108 then the June low of $103.50.
Grains higher overnight again showing some signs of recovery. Equites pointing higher this morning with the US$ steady to lower and crude higher, up $1+ barrel when grains opened. Corn finished the overnight steady to 6 higher, soybeans 6 to 10 higher and wheat 9 to 15 higher.
Tomorrow is first notice day for all July grain contracts. Please make sure to get positions rolled or exited as the front months will no longer have daily limits and volume is getting thinner. This comes with end of the month and end of Q2 as well.
USDA will update planted acreage at 11:00 AM CST tomorrow with the average trade estimates looking for ½ million more corn acres planted than initially intended back in March and ½ million less soybean acres. Spring wheat and durum acreage expected to be 500,000 acres less than the March intentions. Quarterly stocks for both corn and soybeans expected to be higher than a year ago at 4.34 BBU of corn and 965 MBU of soybeans. Wheat stocks look to be considerably lower than a year ago at 655 MBU. The quarterly wheat stocks match up with the end of 2021/22 marketing year which have been increasing the past few months due to lower exports. Earlier this month, USDA estimated old crop wheat ending stocks at 627 MBU.
Scattered rains still expected over this next week, most over the weekend, stretching from eastern KS into MO and up into MN and WI. The 6-10 day outlook again showing much above normal temps centered on the Plains but stretching from the Rockies to the East Coast with above normal moisture now in the Southwest and primarily along the Northern Border States.
July corn with support around $7.30 this week and the next down at the low for the month at $7.20 ½, resistance at $7.70. The December contract down to $6.44 ¼ for a low so far this week with support next at $6.30 and resistance at $7.05. July soybeans down to $15.83 for a new recent low last week with support next at $15.78 and resistance at $16.85. The November contract just breaking the $14 barrier last week with resistance at $14.80. July KC Wheat with support at $9.71 then $9.53 and resistance at $10.42. July Chicago wheat has support at $9.00 then $8.50 and resistance at $9.74. July MPLS wheat support at $10.30 and resistance at $11.07. July Soybean Meal the leader higher this week breaking nearby resistance with the next at $467 and support at $426.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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