Date: July 5th, 2022
Livestock futures finished out last week on a higher note which allowed for week over week gains. Beef demand remains strong domestically but pork movement prior to Independence Day was light. Feeders remain very choppy but supported with sharply lower corn this past week. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade mostly steady last week with KS at $138 live, TX at $137 to $138 live and NE still carrying premiums from $144 to $150 live and $232 to $238 on a dressed basis.
For the week, Friday June 24th through Friday July 1st, August Live Cattle +$1.22, October +$.22, August Feeder Cattle +$2.00, September +$2.57, July Lean Hogs -$1.32, August -$3.80. Boxed Beef, Choice -$1.16 @ $263.82, Select -$4.55 @ $240.47, Pork Carcass Cutout -$3.45 @ $108.75.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/26/22-7/2/02
Current Week: 34,242 Last Report 6/20/22: 24,995 Last Year: 21,786
Compared to last week: Feeder steers mostly steady. Feeder heifers1.00-3.00 lower. Demand moderate to good for feeder cattle. Steer calves 3.00-5.00 higher. Heifer calves unevenly steady. Demand good for calves despite the continued hot dry weather. After a brief cool down with some beneficial rains to the northwest and Oklahoma Panhandle, Summer’s heat has returned and is expected hot and dry for the month of July. Auction numbers increased going into the holiday week and most sales closing for the week.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 636,000 head, down 30,000 from the week previous but up 8,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 514.5 million pounds with year to date beef production now up 0.9% and cattle slaughter remaining 1.0% ahead of last year.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,286,000 head, down 18,000 compared to the week previous but up 14,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 494.6 million pounds with year to date pork production now down 3.5% compared to a year ago and slaughter down 4.2%.
Boxed beef cutout values finished last week slightly lower on moderate demand with 101 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__263.82 -.18
Select Cutout__240.47 -.10
CME Feeder Cattle Index__165.67 -.77
CME Lean Hog Index__110.70 -.14
Pork Carcass Cutout __108.75 +1.50
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__114.22 -4.69, only 4,439 head
August live cattle have filled all the gaps from June with Friday’s settlement just shy of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Support is down at $131.70, last week’s low, then $129.97, the low from June, with resistance up at $136 then $138. August feeders still holding a $7.60 trading range since June 2nd with resistance in a range from $176.87 to $178.22, the three spike highs over the past three months, and support at $170.30. July lean hogs coiling or consolidating the trading range over the past few weeks with resistance just shy of $113 and support at $108.27.
Grains got past the report day last Thursday with bullish soybean acreage, down 2.63 million acres compared to the intentions report in March. Spring and durum wheat acreage only slightly lower when the markets expected nearly ½ mln acre drop. This along with additional ending stocks were bearish to all the wheat markets. Traders then quickly turned their attention back to U.S. weather to end the week under heavy pressure.
Over the weekend and into next week, the forecasts are calling for very beneficial 1-2” rains across most of the Corn Belt. The extended forecasts, updated after the close, increasing the above normal temps and pushing the above normal moisture to the North and East.
For the week, Friday June 24th through Friday July 1st, September Corn -$.63, December -$.66 ½, August Soybeans -$.11, November -$.29, September KC Wheat -$.84 ¾, December -$.86 ½, September Chicago Wheat -$.90 ½, December -$.89 ¾, September MPLS Wheat -$1.22 ½, December -$1.14, August Soybean Meal +$10.70/T, October -$.70/T.
No overnight trade for the grains but equities and energies sharply lower and US$ into new all-time highs. July grain contracts now in delivery with no daily trading limits, thin volume and cash bids based of either August or September futures.
Russia continues to advance in Eastern Ukraine. Turkey detaining a Russian vessel believed to be carrying grain stolen from Ukraine. Egypt’s latest wheat tender resulting in a purchase of 444,000 MT or 16.3 MBU, half of which purchased from Russia.
Stats Canada updated planted acres this morning with most in line with expectations. Corn, soybean and canola acres all slightly above the average trade estimates while wheat acres increased nearly 400,000 with the average trade estimate looking for a 300,000 acre reduction.
Scattered rains over the weekend came through for most of the Corn Belt. Excessive heat for this week from the Plains and stretching up into the Corn Belt. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day maps still showing above normal temps for most major growing areas with above normal moisture isolated to the Southwest and East Coast and normal to below normal for the rest of the country.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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