September 9, 2022
Livestock futures finished last week with strong gains, mostly triple digits higher. Fundamental support is lacking though for cattle futures with cash trade steady to $2 lower and beef prices lower. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade in the South mostly at $141 live and in the North from $142 to $144 live and $226 to $228 dressed.
For the week, Friday September 2nd through Friday September 9th, October Live Cattle +$1.12, December +$.72, September Feeder Cattle -$.87, October +$.62, October Lean Hogs +$3.15, December +$.42. Boxed Beef, Choice -$2.16, Select -$3.85. Pork Carcass Cutout +$.62.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/4/22-9/10/22
Current Week: 19,599 Last Report 8/29/22: 35,585 Last Year: 15,143
Compared to last week: All classes light tested as all Monday sales and one Tuesday sale, closed for the Labor Day holiday. Feeder steers and heifers sold steady to 2.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves sold mostly steady.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 604,000 head, down 34,000 from the week previous but up 25,000 from last year with year to date remaining at +1.3% vs. last year.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,243,000 head, down 113,000 compared to the week previous and down 5,000 compared to a year ago with year to date now at -3.3% compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday lower on moderate demand with 118 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__257.26 -.75
Select Cutout__234.73 -1.31
CME Feeder Cattle Index__181.24 +.93
CME Lean Hog Index__99.57 -.69
Pork Carcass Cutout __102.87 +.43
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__91.28 -3.70
The sharply US$ has helped all commodities and it looks to do so again today. There is still hope that packers will have get more aggressive over these next few weeks with early calls for cash fed cattle steady to higher. October live cattle holding a higher trend since the May 31st low with nearby support at $142 and resistance at $146. September feeders gapped lower and broke the long term higher trend 2 weeks ago but recovered last week with support around $180 and resistance at $185.30. October lean hogs choppy the past couple weeks with support at $89 and resistance at $94.40.
Grains finished last week holding strong gains, again the weaker US$ providing support. Wheat was the leader early in the week as Russian President Putin is calling for a renegotiated shipping deal with Ukraine so that Russia may control which countries are allowed to receive Ukraine’s grain. Pressure on the soy complex last came from Chinese imports lower than expected and Argentina’s updated soybean exchange rate.
For the week, Friday September 2nd through Friday September 9th, December Corn +$.19 ¼, March +$.18, November Soybeans -$.08 ¼, January -$.07 ¾, December KC Wheat +$.51 ½, December Chicago Wheat +$.58 ½, December MPLS Wheat +$.37 ½, October Soybean Meal -$9.20/T.
Grains started weaker overnight but traded and finished mixed with corn finishing 4 to 5 lower, soybeans 1 to 3 higher and wheat 3 to 7 lower. Equites and energies higher this morning and US$ lower.
Today is report day, to be released by USDA at 11 AM CST. The following are the average of the private estimates from Reuters…
US Corn production at 14.088 BBU, vs. last month’s estimate at 14.359 BBU
US Corn yield at 172.5 BPA vs. last month’s at 175.4 BPA
US Corn Harvested acres at 81.686 mln acres vs. 81.840 mln acres last month
US Corn 22/23 ending stocks at 1.217 BBU vs. 1.388 BBU last month
US Corn 21/22 ending stocks at 1.547 BBU vs. 1.530 BBU last month
World Corn 22/23 ending stocks at 302.3 MMT vs. 306.7 MMT last month
US Soybean production at 4.495 BBU vs. 4.531 BBU last month
US Soybean yields at 51.5 BPA vs. 51.9 last month
US Soybean Harvested acres 87.288 mln acres vs. 87.211 mln last month
US Soybean 22/23 ending stocks at 247 MBU vs. 245 MBU last month
US Soybean 21/22 ending stocks at 236 MBU vs. 225 MBU last month
World Soybean 22/23 ending stocks at 101.2 MMT vs 101.4 MMT last month
US Wheat 22/23 ending stocks at 618 MBU vs. 610 MBU last month
World Wheat 22/23 ending stocks at 268.1 MMT vs. 267.3 MMT last month
Scattered rains fell over the weekend for the majority of eastern half of the U.S. along with eastern KS and NE. This week looks wide open with seasonal temps and little to no rain. The 6-10 day outlook calling for above normal temps for all except the PNW with above normal precipitation for the northern border states and below normal moisture from the Southwest to East Coast.
December corn holding a higher trend since late July with resistance around the $7 level and support around $6.50. November soybeans choppy wild swings the past couple months with support at $13.60 and resistance at $14.42. December KC Wheat now trending higher with resistance next up at $10.10 and support at $8.70. December Chicago wheat also trending higher now with resistance at $9.50 and support at $7.90.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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