Date: March 6, 2024
Turnaround Tuesday with cattle futures higher after cautious trading on Monday and all grains lower after decent gains to start the week. Cash fed cattle trade so far this week only very light volume reported in IA at $183 live, steady with last week. Cash hogs and pork prices collapsed yesterday pressuring lean hog futures lower. Feeders and calves continue to show strength as we get closer to spring and green grass. Choice boxed beef now comfortably over the $300 level for over a week. Outside markets were not helpful on Tuesday with energies steady to lower and equities sharply lower.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/5/2024 – Final
This Week: 2,627 Last Week: 2,781 Last Year: 3,117
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold steady to 5.00 higher. A nice offering of yearlings made up the majority of a moderate supply, but there were some consignments of calves as well; demand was good for both. The warm weather has given a tint of green to pastures and cattle are out picking around, tired of the dry hay.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/5/2024 – Final
This Week: 3,131 Last Week: 2.949 Last Year: 3,305
Compared to last week. feeder steers and heifers were steady to 5.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves under 600 lbs. sold 6.00-12.00 higher with most of the gain on heifer calves. Demand was good on a moderate supply. Pastures in the Ozarks are starting to green up but growth is limited with nighttime temperatures in the 30’s and 40’s.
OKC West Livestock Auction – El Reno, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/5/2024 – Prelim
This Week: 2,500 Last Week: 9,110 Last Year: 8,957
Results from calf sale portion only…Compared to last week: Steer and heifer calves sold 6.00-12.00 higher. Demand remains very good for grazing calves as Spring is just around the corner.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 122,000 head, down 3,000 from last week and down 3,933 from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 454,000 head, down 37,000 compared to a week ago and down 30,325 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday lower on moderate to demand with 137 loads sold.
Choice -1.51 @ 304.79, Select -.30 @ 294.87
CME Feeder Cattle Index 246.38 from March 1st
CME Lean Hog Index 80.87
Pork Carcass Cutout -1.39 @ 91.43
April live cattle recent high at $189.20 from February 22nd and the nearby resistance with the next up around $195. We tested the 20-day moving average yesterday which held now at $186.60 with price support next at $182.82. March feeders up to a new recent high last week at $254.90, resistance next at $258 and support at $250 then $244. April lean hogs recent high back on February 22nd at $88.90, the contract high at $91.62 and nearby support at the 20-day moving average now at $84.55 which is just under yesterday’s low.
Grains again all lower on Tuesday as KC and MPLS wheat continue to chop sideways, Chicago wheat though fell into new contract lows. Wheat conditions in the Southern Plains dropped a few points week over week, most likely that’s what kept KC Wheat from making new lows. Corn still holding a short-term higher trend/short covering rally. Soybeans off their lows but still holding the lower trend.
Corn and beans traded both sides of unchanged overnight in fairly tight ranges while wheat continued lower. Chicago wheat again making new lows. Algeria purchased another big chunk of wheat, up to 33 MBU, most likely from the Black Sea Region. In mid-January they purchased a similar amount at $265.50/MT or $7.23/BU. This week’s purchase is down over $1/BU as world wheat values continue to collapse and provide the pressure to U.S. futures. Corn finished the overnight steady, soybeans 1 lower and wheat 2 to 6 lower. Outside markets have equities higher, US$ lower and energies higher with crude oil up $1/barrel.
Weekly EIA report will be out later today and expected to show ethanol production 1-2% lower as margins are tight. Blender demand should remain strong along with exports so stocks are projected steady to slightly higher than the week previous.
USDA will update supply and demand on Friday. I would not expect too many changes to the domestic ending stocks. Corn ethanol usage and soybean crush could be increased but exports for both might come down to offset. Most of the attention will be paid to South American production estimates again this month as the average trade estimates are looking for another 2 to 4 MMT cut to Brazil’s corn and bean crops while still leaving Argentina unchanged.
Red flag warnings in the Southwest, SD and MN today. Scattered rains possible for the eastern halves of KS, OK and TX later this week and heavy rains expected in the Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook showing normal to above normal temps and moisture across the majority of the U.S.
May corn contract low on February 26th at $4.08 ¾. The long term lower trend holding with resistance around $4.50. May soybeans holding a 4-month long lower trend, a new contract low last week at $11.28 ½ and nearby resistance at $11.69. May Chicago wheat hit a new contract low overnight at $5.42 ½ with strong resistance right around the $6 level. May KC wheat contract low on February 16th at $5.56 ¾ with resistance at $5.90. March MPLS wheat contract low on the 26th at $6.41 with resistance at $6.75. May meal new contract low last week at $323.2 with resistance at $345.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
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