Date: May 4th, 2022
Cattle futures higher for the second day in a row as most contracts have now gained back all that was lost last week. Lean hogs continue sharply lower, down $20 since mid-April but still some $5 to $10 away from the long term support levels from late last year. Light volume cash feedlot trade yesterday in CO, NE and WCB steady with a week ago at $144 to $146 live and $230 to $232 dressed. In the South only a bid in at $141 but asking prices $142 and higher. The past couple weeks, trade had begun in earnest by Tuesday. Last week’s trade though saw packers pushing delivery a couple weeks further back and it was the largest weekly volume cash traded since June 2020. It wouldn’t surprise me to see packers backing off this week and next as inventory is large and it appears there are plenty of market ready fed cattle over the next couple weeks.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/2/2022
This Week: 8,762 Last Week: 6,848 Last Year: 5,751
Compared to last week: Feeders steers and heifers steady to 2.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves unevenly steady, not all weights well tested. Demand moderate good. Quality average. 7 weight index steers averaging $160-$166 and the 8 weight index steers averaging $145-$153.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/2/2022
This Week: 2,421 Last Week: 1,966 Last Year: 1,967
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 3.00 higher. Light weight steers had a lower undertone noted. Heifers 3.00-6.00 lower. Quality good. Demand good.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/2/2022
This Week: 1,087 Last Week: 3,361 Last Year:
Compared to last week: In a light test this week feeder steers and heifers sold with higher undertones. Demand for this light offering was good. 7 weight index steers averaging $165-$168 and 8 weights averaging $147-$155.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/2/2022
This Week: 6,495 Last Week: 4,849 Last Year: 4,621
Compared to last week feeder steers under 650 lbs. traded 4.00-6.00 lower with heavier weights trading steady to 2.00 higher. Feeder heifers under 600 lbs. traded 3.00-7.00 lower with heavier weights trading steady. Supply moderate to heavy with good demand. 7 weight index steers averaging $158-$164 and the 8 weight index steers averaging $156.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/3/2022
This Week: 2,733 Last Week: 2,894 Last Year: 2,117
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold steady. Demand was good for several high quality groups of calves on offer along with near 10 loads of yearlings that sold with moderate to good demand. 7 weight index steers averaging $165-$165.50 and 8 weight averaging $157.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 126,000 head up 1,000 from last week and up 4,000 from last year. Monday revised 4,000 lower to 111,000. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 480,000 head matching a week ago but down 6,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday continue lower on strong demand with 176 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__259.55 -3.00
Select Cutout__247.34 -.89
CME Feeder Cattle Index__155.77 +.53
CME Lean Hog Index__101.15 -.44
Pork Carcass Cutout __105.56 -1.02
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__100.13 +2.57, 5,816 head
June live cattle now the front month carrying a steep discount to cash. Friday’s low tested the spike low from earlier in April at $132.47 with support next down at the March low at $130.97 and resistance up around $137. May feeders into new lows on Friday at $156.22 with the contract low from last May down at $153. The lower trend still holding that began back in mid-February with trendline resistance at $164 then the mid-April high at $165.10. June lean hogs a new 4-month low yesterday with support next around $95 and resistance at $112.
Grains started mixed yesterday but finished lower for the 3rd day in row for most contracts. The weather this week still mostly below normal temps and wet delaying corn and soybean planting yet providing some much needed moisture to the Plains. US Winter Wheat conditions are unchanged from last week at 27% rated G/E, but 43% rated P/VP which was an increase of 4%. It was thought conditions would show improvement with the added moisture late last week, but some of the areas from the TX Panhandle up into the SW corner of KS it is most likely too late to help. The extended forecasts, next week, open up some with most thinking some decent planting progress can be made. Ukraine planting ongoing as well, still down from a year ago, with most leaning to a 20-30% reduction in production. Central Brazil still forecasted above normal temps and below normal moisture.
Grains and energies rallying overnight. Wheat was the leader with some large buying in July Chicago wheat. All the grains caught bids around 6 this morning. There was a report of heat waves recently in India that could bring their wheat production significantly lower. India is the world’s second largest producer behind China and like China uses most of their supply domestically. Since Russia invaded Ukraine though, India has been ramping up export capabilities and grading to help meet some of demand in the Middle East. Wheat finished the overnight 19 to 34 higher, soybeans 7 to 10 higher and corn 5 to 8 higher. Crude oil currently $3 to $4 higher and the US$ lower.
South Korea purchased 50,000 MT or 1.8 MBU of U.S. milling quality wheat overnight. Taiwan bought a cargo of corn from South Africa. Ukraine grain exports for the month of April 30% that of year ago.
Another round of severe weather and heavy rains expected today and tomorrow for the eastern halves of TX through KS which then moves up into the WCB for the weekend and into early next week. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps in the western third of the U.S. and above normal for the Southern Plains and Corn Belt with above normal moisture from the Northern Plains down into the WCB and Southern Plains and below normal moisture for the Southeast up into New England.
May grain contracts now in delivery. July corn a new contract high last Friday at $8.24 ½ with support the past few days tested around $7.90. The December contract also hit another new contract high on Friday at $7.57 with support at $7.30. July soybeans chopping sideways the past couple months with support at $16 and resistance at $17.05 then $17.34. The November contract still holding a long term higher trend with support at $14.63 and resistance at $15.40. July KC Wheat very choppy the past couple months with support at $10.70 and resistance at $11.50. July Chicago wheat with nearby support at $10.20 and resistance at $11.07. July MPLS wheat holding a higher trend with a new contract high last Thursday at $12.06 and support at $11.54. July Soybean Meal into new 3-month lows again overnight, currently below all the major moving averages with support next around $385 and resistance at $440.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336