Date: April 14th, 2023
Morning Ag Markets – Matt Hines
A different type of trading day for livestock futures on Thursday with mixed settlements. Live cattle gapped higher while both fats and feeders scoring new contract highs again, but those gains faded throughout the trading session. Lean hogs made new lows pressured by disappointing weekly export sales and minimal pork demand. Cattle futures reversed lower even with confirmation of sharply higher negotiated cash trade from late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Trade reported in KS from $175 to $177 live, up $5 from last week, and the weighted average will be a new all-time high for the state. Even more impressive was the $9 to $12 higher trade reported in NE from $182 to $186 live and mostly $290 dressed, the weighted average will also be all-time highs.
One concern I do have is with beef rallying and pork prices fading, the spread between the two or ratio typically needs to be less than 3:1 beef over pork to continue to support beef demand. That ratio is now approaching 4:1 this week and then add in higher interest rates and gas prices now moving higher as well. The domestic consumer is still key in driving beef demand and at these levels some will begin to shift if not completely cut out beef for cheaper protein from pork or even poultry. So far it is still bullish but keep an eye on slaughter levels over these next few weeks for any slowdowns.
Huss Livestock Market – Kearney, NE
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/12/23 – Final
This Week: 3,966 Last Report: 3,178 Last Year: 4,188
Compared to last week, steers 650-750 lbs sold steady to 3.00 lower and steers over 750 lbs sold 6.00 to 8.00 higher. Heifers over 600 lbs sold steady to 3.00 higher. Demand was good from the buyers in the crowd. 7 weight index steers ranging from $210 to $233.
Farmers and Ranchers Livestock Commission Co. – Salina, KS
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/13/2023 – Final
This Week: 5,476 Last Week: 4,502 Last Year: 4,496
Compared to last week 450 to 650 lb steers sold steady to 1.00 higher and 700 to 800 lb steers sold 2.00 to 5.00 higher with 800 to 900 lb steers selling 3.00 to 5.00 lower. Heifers sold mixed with 450 to 500 lb heifers selling 3.00 higher and 700 to 800 lb heifers selling 7.00 to 8.00 higher while 550 to 650 lb heifers sold 3.00 to 7.00 lower. 7 weight index steers averaged $207 and 8 weights averaged $199.
Winter Livestock – Pratt, KS
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/13/2023 – Final
This Week: 5,141 Last Week: 2,102 Last Year: 5,103
Compared to last week, feeder steers under 500 lbs sold 8.00 to 10.00 higher; over 500 lbs sold steady to 2.00 lower. Feeder heifers under 500 lbs sold on a light test though a higher undertone was noted; 500 to 700 lbs 4.00 to 8.00 higher; over 700 lbs steady to 5.00 higher.
Mitchell Livestock Auction – Mitchell, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/13/23 – Final
This Week: 5,180 Last Week: 2,457 Last Year: 3,364
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 800-1000 lbs. sold steady. Feeder heifers 800-900 lbs. sold unevenly steady, flesh on feeders today was a big factor on prices paid per pound. Top dollar was paid for calves 250-450 lbs. Demand was good. 7 weight index steers averaged $221 and 8 weights averaged $195 to $206.
Cattle slaughter on Thursday estimated at 125,000 head, up 3,000 from last week and matching last year. Week to date now at 489,000 head, up 1,000 from last week but down 10,000 from last year.
Hog slaughter on Thursday estimated at 484,000 head, up 3,000 compared to a week ago and up 4,000 compared to a year ago. Week to date now at 1,790,000 head, down 134,000 compared to a week ago and down 111,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout on Thursday continuing higher on moderate demand with 97 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__300.42 +1.94
Select Cutout__283.38 +1.57
CME Feeder Cattle Index__199.77 +6.53
CME Lean Hog Index__71.95 -.30
Pork Carcass Cutout __77.56 +1.54
April live cattle again a new contract high and all-time spot month high on Thursday at $177.70. April is now in delivery and will continued to be supported by the sharply higher cash trade the past few weeks. April feeders a new contract high yesterday as well at $204.00. The next upside target at $205 with the all-time spot high a little further away at $245.20. April lean hogs a new contract low on Thursday at $71.50. The contract will expire on Monday and the hope is it will stay above the $70 level as we have not had a spot contract below that level since January 2021.
Grains were mostly lower on Thursday on disappointing export sales and improved weather forecasts. Wheat was the leader lower even though it was very volatile trade with KC bouncing higher a few times throughout the trading session. Russia again saying the Black Sea trading deal is over. I think the markets are tired of hearing the same rhetoric over these past few months. Supposedly better rain chances coming into the Southern Plains, I know for many in SW KS down into the Panhandle of TX this will be too late as HRW crops are being zeroed out this week. On the flip side, French wheat improving to 94% rated good to excellent now and European wheat futures continue under pressure. The weather forecasts in Brazil look okay as we approach the main growing season for its second crop corn. Planting should continue to move quickly in lower half of the U.S. ahead of the cold front and some weekend moisture.
Grains mixed, but again mostly lower overnight. Outside markets mixed as well with equities trading both sides of unchanged, US$ and energies higher. Corn finished the overnight 1 lower to 2 higher, soybeans 3 to 8 lower and wheat 3 lower to 1 higher. Good news to start the day session with USDA announcing a private sale of 382,000 MT or 15 MBU of corn sold to China split between old and new crop. Bad news though with the confirmation already of Brazilian soybeans making there way to the U.S. A 30,000 MT or 1.1 MBU shipment is scheduled to leave Brazil the last week of April and is headed for North Carolina.
Rains still in the forecast for the upper Midwest and Southeast over the weekend. Next week looking even wetter from northern MO up into the Great Lakes. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal precipitation from the PNW to WCB and below normal from the Southwest to the East Coast with above normal temps in the South and East and below normal in the Northern Plains and West Coast.
May corn still inching higher recently with support at $6.40 and resistance up around $6.70. December still holding the long-term lower trend with support at $5.47 ½ and nearby resistance at $5.76. May soybeans have nearby support at $14.80 and resistance at $15.27. The November contract has nearby support at $12.95 and resistance around $13.40. May KC wheat testing the short-term higher trend with support at $8.40 and resistance around the $9 level. May Chicago wheat holding the long-term lower trend with support at $6.54 and resistance at $6.85. May MPLS wheat took out the short-term higher trend this week with resistance at $9.13 and support at $8.30. May soybean meal hit a new contract high back on March 7th at $498, down to a new recent low on March 24th at $435, with nearby resistance at $470.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
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