Date: November 7th, 2022
Livestock futures bounced higher and lower throughout last week but most finished the week lower. Pork exports were bullish but prices lower last week while beef was mixed with low sales and shipments. Cash fed cattle trade steady to $2 higher with live trade in the South mostly at $150 and trade in the north from $152 to $153 live and $240 to $243 on a dressed basis.
For the week, Friday October 28th through Friday November 4th, December Live Cattle -$1.35, February -$1.95, November Feeder Cattle -$.05, January -$.75, December Lean Hogs -$3.12, February -$2.42. Boxed Beef, Choice +$.49 @ $263.75, Select -$2.59 @ $231.90, Pork Carcass Cutout -$4.62 @ $96.72.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/30/22-11/5/22
Current Week: 33,722 Last Report 10/24/22: 28,895 Last Year: 29,629
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 1.00-3.00 higher. Feeder heifers mostly steady. Demand good for the limited numbers of feeder cattle. Steer calves 5.00-15.00 higher. Heifer calves 2.00-4.00 higher. Demand good and improved for calves as rains moved across the state.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 667,000 head, down 1,000 from the week previous but up 15,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 553.9 million pounds with year to date +1.5% vs. last year and slaughter +1.6%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,577,000 head, up 20,000 compared to the week previous but down 35,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 551.5 million pounds with year to date -2.4% compared to a year ago and slaughter -2.9%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday lower on moderate demand with 119 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__263.75 -1.43
Select Cutout__231.90 -1.16
CME Feeder Cattle Index__176.99 -.64
CME Lean Hog Index__91.45 -.89
Pork Carcass Cutout __96.72 +.36
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__85.18 -.94, 4,295 head
December live cattle hit a new contract high on October 25th at $154.25 but holding a lower trend since with support at $151. November feeders choppy range bound trading the past couple weeks with support at $175.75 and resistance at $179.77. December lean hogs into a new recent low on Friday at $82.82 with support next around $80 and resistance at $84.70.
Grains finished the week higher which pulled corn back to steady for the week and secured weekly gains for both soybeans and wheat. Soybeans and soybean oil have been the leaders recently with demand building once again and rallies for all the veg oils along with strong Chinese demand for soybeans. Wheat remains the most volatile with headline trading still ongoing. Russia pulling out of the Ukraine safe passage exports through the Black Sea to begin then week then back in the deal by midweek. USDA last week reported winter wheat conditions as the worst ever for early fall and Argentina’s crop production estimates continued to be reduced. Corn has been trading sideways recently as we get ready for another crop report from USDA later this week.
For the week, Friday October 28th through Friday November 4th, December Corn +$.00 ¼, March unchanged, January Soybeans +$.62, March +$.60, December KC Wheat +$.28 ¼, March +$.26, December Chicago Wheat +$.18 ½, March +$.17 ¾, December MPLS Wheat +$.09 ½, March +$.13 ½, December Soybean Meal -$5.00/T, January -$3.40/T.
Grains fairly quite overnight, trading both sides of unchanged. There’s a couple wheat tenders out today with Egypt announcing a snap tender for unspecified volume and the lowest offer currently coming from Romania at $356.45/MT FOB or $9.70 BU. Iraq initially tendering for optional origin wheat with Romania again the cheapest at $469/MT delivered or $12.76/BU. Iraq has since changed their tender looking for U.S. origin milling wheat with offers at $560/MT delivered or $15.24/BU. Equites pointing higher this morning with the US$ and energies lower. Corn and soybeans finished the overnight 2 lower with wheat steady to 3 lower.
USDA will update domestic and international supply and demand on Wednesday at 11 AM CST. The following are the average pre report trade estimates…
U.S. Corn yield remaining the same at 171.9 BPA but production down to 13.88 BBU vs. 13.895 BBU in October. Ending stocks at 1.207 BBU up from 1.172 BBU last month.
U.S. Soybean yield also remaining the same at 49.8 BPA with production just slightly higher at 4.315 BBU and ending stocks at 212 MBU vs. 210 MBU in October.
U.S. Wheat ending stocks estimated to be 578 MBU vs. 576 in October.
World Corn stocks at 300.6 MMT vs. 301.2 MMT in October.
World Soybean stocks at 100.6 MMT vs. 100.5 MMT in October.
World Wheat stocks at 266.5 MMT vs. 267.5 MMT in October.
Heavy rainfall amounts from South Central KS up to the Great Lakes and parts of the Southeast last Friday and Saturday with the majority of HRW country receiving nothing to ½”. This week the heavy precip is isolated to the Dakotas into the Great Lakes. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps across the entire country with below normal moisture except for the western part of the Southern Plains.
December corn briefly dipping below $6.80 for the first time this month with support at $6.74 and resistance at the $7 level. January soybeans a new recent high last Friday at $14.65 ½ with resistance up at $14.93 ½ and support at $14.28. December KC Wheat has resistance at $9.91 and support at $9.25. December Chicago wheat has resistance at $9.04 with support at $8.28. December MPLS wheat has resistance at $9.93 and support at $9.33. December soybean meal contract high at $443.80 with support at $414.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
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