Date: April 3, 2024
Cattle futures were able to regain a portion of Monday’s sharp losses, while lean hogs continue to chop sideways. Cash feedlot trade still yet to develop this week. Salebarns are still seeing good volume, especially from KS north as grass cattle buyers are still in the market. The biggest price driver for the futures market continues to be related to avian flu. The reported positive samples in unpasteurized milk samples last week rocked the markets for few days. Monday’s news that sent fats and feeders $5 to $7 lower was that an employee at one of the TX dairies tested positive for same flu strain. He was being treated with only minor eye irritation and this strain is not spreading within the dairies.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/1/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 5,431 Last Week: 6,782 Last Year: 9,088
Compared to last week feeder steers under 525 lbs. sold 10.00-30.00 higher with heavier weights selling 2.00-10.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold from 6.00 lower to 10.00 higher. 7 weight index steers averaged $252-$268 and 8 weights averaged $232-$251.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/1/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 3,148 Last Week: 6,509 Last Year: 7,540
Compared to last week: Bulk of supply mostly plain in quality and sold steady. Steers and heifers of good quality 4.00-8.00 higher in a light. Demand good to very good. Lighter receipts due to the Easter holiday. 7 weight index steers averaged $247-$274 and 8 weights averaged $235-$239.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/1/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 2,999 Last Report: 5,116 Last Year: 4,319
Compared to the sale two weeks ago: Steers 450-500 lbs sharply lower, 650-800 lbs instances of 1.00 higher in 750 lb steers but mostly 9.00- 11.00 higher, 850-900 lb steers 3.00-4.00 lower. Heifers 600-750 lbs 2.00-6.00 higher, 700-750 lbs 4.00-11.00 lower, 800-900 lbs 8.00 higher. 7 weight index steers averaged $265-$276 and 8 weights averaged $243-$263.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 120,000 head, down 5,000 from last week and down 4,635 from last year. Hog slaughter estimated at 489,000 head, up 6,000 compared to a week ago and up 4,517 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values lower on moderate to good demand with 125 loads sold.
Choice -1.58 @ 304.16, Select -2.80 @ 298.99
CME Feeder Cattle Index 248.27
CME Lean Hog Index 84.92
Pork Carcass Cutout +.52 @ 97.13
April live cattle recent high back on March 14th and $190.27 and dropping to a new 3-month low on Monday, right at the 100-day average, at $179.75. Nearby resistance is now at $186 and support next at $177.40. April feeders recent high on February 26th at $260.80, also down to a new 3-month low on Monday at $239.05 with support next around $237 and nearby resistance at $249. April lean hogs hit an 8-month high back on February 22nd at $88.90, then fell back to $83.15 for the March low with choppy trade, but a higher trend holding since. The June contract continues sharply higher since the first of the year, hitting a new contract high yesterday at $104.80.
Grains did trade both sides on Tuesday, early gains were met by heavier selling pushing all futures to settle in the red. U.S. weather looks non-threatening with above normal temps and moisture over the first couple weeks of April for major growing areas. Corn hit new highs last week from the friendly acreage and stocks report. Little follow through buying has been evident though since, even as monthly ethanol grind continues to outpace expectations. Soybean crush was lower than expected and the lack of Chinese buying seems to be providing the recent pressure to soybeans. Wheat continues to hang near its lows, MPLS wheat into new lows with the additional acres projected by USDA. World values are still discount to the U.S. and export activity is very slow.
Grans rebounded overnight, tight trading ranges for corn and beans as wheat hit new lows again then reversed higher. Corn finished the overnight steady to 1 higher, soybeans 1 to 2 higher and wheat 8 to 8 higher. Outside markets have equities and US$ lower and energies higher with crude oil up $.70/barrel.
The weekly EIA report will be out later today with expectations for slightly reduced ethanol production but improved blender demand and exports but stocks to remain nearly unchanged.
Mixed precip moving through the Corn Belt today. Early next week, good rain chances for the Southern Plains into the Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps in the Southwest and above normal temps in the PNW, Northern Border States and eastern half of the U.S. with above normal moisture from the Southwest into the Midwest and below normal for the West Coast and Northern Plains.
May corn contract low on February 26th at $4.08 ¾. The long-term lower trend holding, touched last Thursday with a new recent high at $4.48. Resistance next at $4.60 and nearby support at $4.24. May soybeans breaking the lower trend in mid-March, contract low on February 29th at $11.28 ½, a new recent high on March 21st at $12.26 ¾, resistance next at $12.33 and nearby support at $11.50. May Chicago wheat contract low on March 11th at $5.23 ½ with resistance at $5.70. May KC wheat contract low on March 6th at $5.51 ½ with resistance at $6.05. May MPLS wheat down to a new contract low overnight at $6.25 ¼ with resistance at $6.77. May soybean meal contract low on February 29th at $323.2 with resistance at $339.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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