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Following a decisively bearish Quarterly Hog and Pig report from Friday, the initial reaction yesterday morning was appropriately bearish with quotes in the vicinity of $1 lower, but the end result based on the futures close was polar opposite. Front month October hogs were just mildly higher, but the Dec and Feb contracts were up more than $2 and April was over $1 higher. The total inventory was up 3% from last year, breeding herd numbers were up 2% and market hog totals were up 4%. All of those numbers were also above the pre-report estimates, along with it being the biggest Sept 1 inventory since Hog and Pig reports started being released. There was a daily kill tally last week of 490,000 head and…

Date: September 30th, 2019 Triple digit gains for cattle futures to end the week which helped pull lean hog futures higher nearby. Fats are now up $12+ from lows earlier this month but still have over a dollar to fill the gap left from the limit down day after the Tyson plant fire over a month and a half ago. Feeders are up $13 to $16 from low to high so far this month, no gaps remaining and looking to test resistance around the $142 to $144 area. Cash feedlot trade last week was reported at $103 live Southern Plains, $2 higher than the week previous but still some $8 under a year ago. Northern trade is still pulling in higher money with Nebraska trading…

Following Friday’s bullish COF numbers, there wasn’t any hint of fade the report-type action that sometimes goes on in the meat complex. The bullishness of the report came from placements last month being 3.5% lower than the trade estimates and 9 points under last year and that helped pull the On Feed total on September 1 down to 1% below last year at the same time. The reaction was a very appropriate day of strong gains that pushed the front three months in live cattle up over the $2 higher mark. Feeders were up more than $2 on all but the front end September contract. That rally left the front month October live futures $4.57 under where it closed the day of the Tyson fire,…

Date: September 23rd, 2019 Cash feedlot trade was higher last week with live sales reported at $101 to $103, up $2 to $3 from the week previous and dressed trade from $160 to $165, up $5. African swine fever now discovered in the Philippines and Russia along with the Chinese trade talks not going as well as week ago pressured livestock futures to end the week. The Cattle on Feed report was friendly after the close with 99% on feed vs. a year ago and August placements down to 91% compared to pre report estimates at 95%. This is the fourth consecutive month for placements below a year ago. YTD Cattle Slaughter through August was released on Thursday with heifer slaughter 8.6% above a year…

Date: September 18th, 2019 African swine fever found for the first time in South Korea, U.S. Japan trade deal moving forward to bring tariff levels in line with others in the TPP and crude back down $3+ after the one of the largest moves of +$8.05 from Monday topped the headlines from yesterday. Cattle slaughter levels should rebound this week but cattle owners aren’t rushing to sell with yesterday’s futures recovering and carry in the market. Light cash feedlot trade reported so far in the North at $102 live and $160 dressed. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held later this morning with 1,229 head consigned compared to last week’s 636 head of which none sold and 2 lots were passed out at…

Crazy start to the week’s trade in the commodity world. Coming off of Saudi oilfields being bombed over the weekend, crude oil posted one of its biggest jumps in history and trade volume that was the largest since 2008. We were also still relishing in the China news from last week that they weren’t going to impose the latest round of tariffs on US Ag products. That brought a surge of buying into the hog futures last week and soybeans pushed hard to the upside as well. Ag market trade was a lot more subdued yesterday than a lot of the outside markets. Grain and oilseed trade was up, but not by much. Meat complex trade was mostly lower in the live and feeder cattle…

Date: September 16th, 2019 Cash feedlot trade was light through Friday afternoon at $99 to $100 live in the South which is steady with the week previous and $159 to $160 dressed in the North which is steady to $3 lower. Lean hogs have been the leader for livestock futures with gap higher and limit moves the past two trading sessions as export trade looks to pick up. China announced they will not place the last round of additional tariffs on both U.S. pork and soybeans. NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 08/13/2019 RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total This Week 176,400 73,500 122,000 371,900 Last Week 106,800 58,100 14,700 179,600 Year Ago 184,400 60,400 44,800 289,600 Compared to last week, steers and…

Date: September 4th, 2019 Corn and wheat futures sharply lower after the long 3-day holiday weekend, feeder cattle and lean hogs triple digits higher and the soy complex traded mixed throughout the day to finish steady. There continues to be trade and demand uncertainty for both the grains and livestock but holding near the lows these past couple weeks and finding some support for cattle and hogs as renewed some buying interest. Lean hog futures have started the run higher breaking the short term lower trend with Tuesday’s limit move higher, but as bipolar as they act it would be good to see both live and feeder cattle futures take out last week’s highs before getting real excited. Cash feedlot trade so far this week…

Date: September 3rd, 2019 Cattle contracts reversed lower on Friday while lean hogs continue to trade choppy but still holding the lower trend. Cash feedlot trade started early last week at $108 to $110 live in the North, which was steady with the week previous, but faded as the week progressed. In the South, trade was reported at $103 live, $3 lower than the week previous. Dressed trade in the North to end the week ranged from $165 to $172, $3 to $10 lower, and $104 to $106 live, down $2 to $4. Slaughter levels are still higher than before the plant fire, but beef prices have pulled back some from recent highs. NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 08/30/2019 RECEIPTS: Auctions…

The current trend of below normal temps across the Corn Belt and below normal in the extended runs still has the chatter picking up about average frost and freeze dates across the states that have crop progress the farthest behind. Ironically, that encompasses the entire Corn Belt as well as the fringe areas joining it, although the most critical areas are north, west and eastern parts of the Belt. Not sure whether that helped create some of the support yesterday or not, but it’s certainly going to be watched closely as we creep closer to fall. When you look at the top five corn producing states in the US, percent dough in Illinois corn is 19% behind the 5 year average, Iowa is 14% behind,…