Date: November 11th, 2019
Cash feedlot trade higher again last week with KS and TX trading $114 to $115, $2 to $3 higher than the week previous. Trade in the North was reported as steady at $114 to $116 live with $4 to $5 higher dressed trade from $181 to $182. Cattle futures though this past week were mixed with little direction and bumping their head on nearby resistance levels. Beef and pork export estimates for 2019 were both projected lower by USDA in Friday’s supply and demand report while production was increased along with total domestic consumption.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 11/08/2019
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This week: 360,400 49,600 23,900 433,900
Last week: 274,600 49,000 2,000 325,600
Year Ago: 329,800 41,000 6,500 377,300
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold mostly steady to 4.00 higher. The supply of feeders this week was heavy at auctions with the 360,400 head being the second largest auction receipt volume this year, behind week ending January 13 by only 6100 head. Discounts continue to be applied to calves with short or no weaning programs, but they are not nearly as severe as what was being applied a month ago. Colder weather is helping to straighten these calves out and make them a little less risky to own.
For the week, Friday November 1st through Friday November 8th, December Live Cattle -$.27, February +$.80, November Feeder Cattle -$2.12, January -$.12, December Lean Hogs -$.32, February +$1.32. Boxed Beef, Choice +$5.92 @ $239.12, Select +$5.75 @ $213.26. Pork Carcass Cutout +$7.03 @ $82.67.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 117,000 head, down 1,000 from the week previous but up 2,000 from last year. For the week, 651,000 head, down 7,000 from the week previous but up 2,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 535.3 million pounds compared to 540.0 million the week previous and 537.0 million last year. Beef production only up .2% compared to a year ago with cattle slaughter up 1.1%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 484,000 head, down 2,000 compared to the week previous but up 10,000 compared to a year ago. For the week, 2,693,000 head, up 24,000 compared to the week previous and up 102,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 571.2 million pounds last week compared to 564.5 the week previous and 550.3 million last year. Pork production is up 4.2% compared to a year ago with slaughter up 3.7%.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on Choice and steady on Select on light to moderate demand and offerings for a total of 121 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__239.12 +.83
Select Cutout__213.26 +.24
CME Feeder Index__145.85 -.24
CME Lean Hog Index__60.29 +.10
Pork Carcass Cutout__82.67 +2.03
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__42.80 no comp, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__42.83 no comp
National Wtd Avg Live Price__36.69 -.04, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__44.85 -.39
December live cattle into a new 6-month high at $120.32 last week with resistance up near $124 and support first at $118 then $116.40. November feeders hit a new 5-month high at $149.40 but has since stalled out. This also is right at the 62% retracement level from the mid-April high at $161.85 down to the September low at $127.55 with nearby support near $145. December lean hogs holding the lower trend that has been in place since mid-April with support at $63.40 and resistance at $69.
Grains finished the week mixed but all lower when compared to week previous. China news continues to back and forth, exports for corn are weak but domestic markets are strong while the opposite is true for soybeans as exports have been a good pace but elevators and processors are full. The November crop report by USDA last Friday was friendly for corn with yield down 1.4 BPA to 167 dropping production 118 MBU but demand also decreased by 100 MBU so only a minor reduction in ending stocks. Soybeans were neutral but most expected a reduction in crop size while spring and durum wheat acres were adjusted lower and ending stocks for all wheat reduced by 23 MBU.
For the week, Friday November 1st through Friday November 8th, December Corn -$.12, March -$.12, January Soybeans -$.05 ¾, March -$.05 ¼, December KC Wheat -$.04 ½, March -$.08 ¼, December Chicago Wheat -$.05 ¾, March -$.07 ½, December MPLS Wheat -$.12 ¾, March -$.13, December Soybean Meal +$1.00/T.
Overnight, grains were all under pressure, testing nearby support levels. Corn finished 2 lower, soybeans 4 to 6 lower and wheat 1 to 4 lower.
Export inspections and crop progress will be delayed until tomorrow. Fall harvest is trying to push forward but now reports of propane rationing in the Upper Midwest and Eastern Corn Belt could delay the completion of harvest if corn is still in the field and above 20 percent moisture.
Below normal temps continue for the Central Plains in the East Coast this week with heavy snow expected around the Great Lakes and the Northeast. The 6 to 10 day outlook has below normal temps for the eastern half of the U.S. with above normal now for the western half and below normal moisture on the West Coast and in the Southeast with above normal in Plains.
December corn breaking the higher trend that started in early September, now holding a lower trend since the October high at $4.02 ½ with support at $3.70. January soybeans peaked at $9.59 ½ mid-October which matches the highs from earlier this summer. The higher trend has also been breached with support next at $9.21 ½ and resistance at $9.42. December KC wheat holding a very slow moving higher trend since early September with support at $4.12 and resistance up at $4.37. December Chicago wheat with support at $5.01 and resistance at $5.35. December MPLS wheat with support at $5.05 and resistance up at $5.32. December soybean meal with support at $299 and resistance up near $306.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700