Date: November 18th, 2019
China continues to source protein and this past week’s export sales showed China as the top buyer of U.S. pork along with amazingly the 4th top buyer of U.S. beef. Cash feedlot trade was unable to push higher this past week which stemmed from heavy pressure on futures midweek. Trade in KS and TX reported at mostly $114 to $115, steady with the week previous while trade in the North was also steady at $115 to $116 live and $180 to $182 dressed. Beef and pork prices continue to move higher, improving packer margins, and hopefully will continue to improve cash prices.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 11/15/2019
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This week: 299,000 51,200 4,000 354,200
Last week: 360,400 49,600 23,900 433,900
Year Ago: 307,700 29,100 31,600 368,400
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold steady to 3.00 higher. The fall calf run has arrived and in a big way. Last week, yearlings were sprinkled in the heavy runs seen nationwide with this being the second week in a row with cattle over 600 lbs coming in at only 37 percent. All auction receipts were somewhat tempered this week with early week sales dealing with severely cold temps and frozen precipitation making travel hazardous from Missouri up through the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. With large sales of calves across the nation, buyers are spread out and some sales felt the effects of light buyer attendance at individual sales this week. Most buyers at auctions have been order buyers as the true farmer-feeder is still in the combine trying to get the late crop out before adverse weather stops them. Most farmer-feeders would sure like to put harvest behind them this year and are working late hours to try and get done before Turkey Day. Health of calve have been a concern of buyers and some ranchers in the Sandhills of Nebraska couldn’t get precondition shots in calves prior to sale day due the extremely wet pasture conditions.
For the week, Friday November 8th through Friday November 15th, December Live Cattle -$.15, February -$.05, November Feeder Cattle -$.75, January -$1.60, December Lean Hogs -$.92, February -$1.90. Boxed Beef, Choice +$1.68 @ $240.80, Select +$1.07 @ $214.33. Pork Carcass Cutout +$5.46 @ $88.13.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 117,000 head, matching the week previous but down 5,000 from last year. For the week, 657,000 head, up 6,000 from the week previous and up 9,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 540.2 million pounds compared to 535.3 million the week previous and last year. Beef production only up .2% compared to a year ago with cattle slaughter up 1.1%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 485,000 head, up 1,000 compared to the week previous and up 20,000 compared to a year ago. For the week, 2,749,000 head, up 56,000 compared to the week previous and up 123,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 584.4 million pounds last week compared to 571.2 the week previous and 558.7 million last year. Pork production is up 4.3% compared to a year ago with slaughter up 3.7%.
Boxed beef cutout values weak to lower on light demand and offerings for a total of 81 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__240.80 -.26, +1.68 for the week
Select Cutout__214.33 -1.51, +1.07 for the week
CME Feeder Index__147.12 -.47
CME Lean Hog Index__59.52 +.02
Pork Carcass Cutout__88.13 +1.09, +5.46 for the week
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__N/A, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__42.40 +.66
National Wtd Avg Live Price__34.35 +.46, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__42.73 +.54
December live cattle still unable to break above the $120 barrier since doing so back on November 4th for a new 6-month high at $120.32. Resistance next up near $124 and support at the 20-day moving average now at $117.70. November feeders expire later this week. January hit a new 6-month high at $147.77 last week and then dipped below the higher trendline that has been in place since early September with support at $142.50. December lean hogs holding the lower trend that has been in place since mid-April hitting a new recent low on Friday at $62.47. Support next down around $58 with resistance at $67.
Grains finished mixed on Friday but mostly lower which can also be said for the week. Fall harvest continues to progress here in the U.S. while weather has improved in most areas of South America on recently planted crops. U.S. export sales were out on Friday with friendly sales for soybeans at 46 MBU, China buying 28 MBU, and NOPA October domestic crush above expectations at 175.4 MBU compared to 152.6 MBU in September. Corn and wheat sales continue to be light at 22.9 MBU and 8.8 MBU respectively.
For the week, Friday November 8th through Friday November 15th, December Corn -$.06, March -$.05 ¾, January Soybeans -$.12 ¾, March -$.13 ¼, December KC Wheat -$.04 ½, March -$.04 ¾, December Chicago Wheat -$.07 ½, March -$.08 ¼, December MPLS Wheat -$.14 ¾, March -$.15 ¾, December Soybean Meal +$2.20/T, January +$2.20/T.
Overnight, grains were steady to weaker with corn and wheat into new recent lows yet only trading a two cent range. Corn finished steady, soybeans 1 lower and wheat 1 higher to 3 lower.
USDA announced a private sale of 132,000 MT or 5.2 MBU of corn sold for unknown destinations. The latest from the U.S. and China is being reported as constructive talks at a high level over the weekend. Beyond those few items it looks like a typical Monday so far for grain complex as prices slip lower with very little fresh news to spur a rally.
This week’s weather looks fairly seasonal. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps in the Southwest, Southern Plains and into the Midwest with above normal precipitation for all except the West Coast, Great Lakes and New England.
December corn holding a lower trend since mid-October, support next at $3.66 with resistance up at $3.81. January soybeans peaked at $9.59 ½ mid-October which matches the highs from earlier this summer. January soybeans also holding a lower trend with support next at $9.11 then around $9.00 and resistance at $9.25. December KC wheat holding a very slow moving higher trend since early September with support at $4.15 and resistance up at $4.39. December Chicago wheat dipping below the $5 mark overnight with support at $4.98 and resistance at $5.17. December MPLS wheat with the contract low down at $4.86 ½ and resistance up at $5.29. December soybean meal trending higher the past couple weeks with support at $299 and resistance up near $311.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700