Date: November 25th, 2019
Cattle futures finished lower for the week, feeders sharply lower as the January contract becomes the front month. Cash feedlot trade reported at $1 to $2 higher starting midweek. Trade in the South reported at $116 live while trade in the North $115 to $117 live and mostly $184 dressed.
November Cattle on Feed Report USDA Actual Average Estimate
Cattle on Feed November 1 101% 101.4%
Placed on Feed in October 110% 112.2%
Marketed in October 99% 99.6%
Overall neutral to friendly versus the expectations, bearish big picture with placements up 10% vs. a year ago. Just a reminder that placements a year ago were lower though due to terrible weather conditions as well.
Cold Storage
• Total frozen poultry down 3% from year ago
• Total stocks of chicken up 1% from year ago
• Total red meat down 1% from year ago
• Total beef down 10% from year ago
• Total pork up 8% from year ago
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 11/22/2019
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This week: 323,900 40,700 21,000 385,600
This week: 299,000 51,200 4,000 354,200
Year Ago: 97,700 20,500 0 118,200
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold steady to 3.00 lower. The fall calf run finally came to fruition this year as more calves were traded in October than September. Weaned calves with good condition continued to bring a premium to their unweaned, fleshy counterparts and there has certainly been an abundance of calves coming to sale barns which pressured the calf market. Demand was improved this week at most auctions in the Northern Plains as the farmer/feeder and summer yearling operators are in the buying mood. Very good demand for yearling feeder cattle as the supply is really tightening and when there are yearlings in town the market is very active.
For the week, Friday November 15th through Friday November 22nd, December Live Cattle -$.42, February -$1.12, January Feeder Cattle -$5.00, March -$4.62, December Lean Hogs -$1.97, February -$4.35. Boxed Beef, Choice -$8.23 @ $232.57, Select -$3.01 @ $211.32. Pork Carcass Cutout -$5.06 @ $83.07.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 114,000 head, down 3,000 from the week previous and down 1,000 from last year. For the week, 662,000 head, up 5,000 from the week previous and up 90,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 545.8 million pounds compared to 540.2 million the week previous and 475.2 last year. Beef production up .6% compared to a year ago with cattle slaughter up 1.4%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 488,000 head, up 3,000 compared to the week previous and up 30,000 compared to a year ago. For the week, 2,758,000 head, up 3,000 compared to the week previous and up 513,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 588.3 million pounds last week compared to 585.6 the week previous and 476.8 million last year. Pork production is up 4.7% compared to a year ago with slaughter up 4.1%.
Boxed beef cutout values sharply lower on light demand and moderate offerings for a total of 104 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__232.57 -2.29, -8.23 for the week
Select Cutout__211.32 -2.54, -3.01 for the week
CME Feeder Index__145.47 -.39
CME Lean Hog Index__59.76 +.22
Pork Carcass Cutout__83.07 +1.60, -5.06 for the week
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__N/A, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__41.80 -.62
National Wtd Avg Live Price__35.46 +.11, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__41.91 -.66
December live cattle still unable to break above the $120 barrier since doing so back on November 4th for a new 6-month high at $120.32. Resistance next up near $124 and support at $117.70. January feeders crashed lower Friday with support next at the October low at $136.10 and resistance up at $144.30. December lean hogs holding the lower trend that has been in place since mid-April hitting a new recent low last week at $60.05. Support next down around $58 with resistance up around $67.
Grains finished mixed on Friday with corn and soybeans lower for the week while wheat futures were higher. With that basis continues to improve for the fall crops to try and stimulate some cash grain movement. South American weather remains favorable and the US$ is trending higher both providing pressure on the grains.
For the week, Friday November 15th through Friday November 22nd, December Corn -$.02 ½, March -$.02 ¼, January Soybeans -$.21 ¼, March -$.19 ½, December KC Wheat +$.07, March +$.07 ½, December Chicago Wheat +$.05, March +$.04 ½, December MPLS Wheat -$.11, March -$.12 ½, December Soybean Meal -$8.10/T, January -$8.00/T.
Overnight, grains were higher with corn and soybeans 1 higher and wheat 3 to 7 higher.
The latest from China is still banter that phase one of the trade deal is very close and they remain committed. Uncertainty though is still present as they purchased 20 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans last week.
This week volume will be thinning each day, markets are closed on Thursday and reopen on Friday from 8:30 to 12:05. December grain contracts will be in delivery next week, first notice is Friday, so make sure and exit or roll all long positions by Wednesday.
This week’s weather looks fairly seasonal again with heavy spotty rain in the Southwest and then the Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps for the western half of the U.S. with above normal in the Southeast and above normal precipitation for all except the PNW.
December corn holding a lower trend since mid-October, rounding out a bottom or support from $3.65 to 3.70 with resistance up at $3.78. January soybeans peaked at $9.59 ½ mid-October which matches the highs from earlier this summer. January soybeans also holding a lower trend with support next at $8.94 then the $8.70 area and resistance at $9.20. December KC wheat holding a very slow moving higher trend since early September with support at $4.17 and resistance up at $4.39. December Chicago wheat also trending higher with support at $5.08 and resistance at $5.35. December MPLS wheat with the contract low down at $4.86 ½ and resistance up at $5.04 ½. December soybean meal still choppy with support at $298 and resistance up near $303.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700