Date: November 6th, 2019
Cattle futures trading their typical early in the week, non-directional trading pattern while lean hogs held to a triple digit rally. This still doesn’t break the long term lower trend for hogs but is a new 2-week high. Pork prices have started to rebound providing some initial support but the real test will be sustaining the rally for the balance of the week. Cash feedlot trade still mostly quiet so far this week, some light volume in the North at values equal to last week’s trade, $115 live and $177 to $182 dressed. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held later today with 547 head consigned compared to last week’s 433 head of which 184 sold at $112 in KS.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/4/2019
Total Receipts: 6,423 Last Week: 6,108 Last Year: 5,437
Compared to last week steer and heifer calves and yearlings 3.00 to 6.00 higher. Demand good, supply moderate. Several lots of long time weaned calves and yearlings in the offering. Buyers more active with the mild weather and cattle futures continue to trade in an upward trend.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/4/2019
Total Receipts: 12,000 Last Week: 6,807 Last Year: 9,992
Compared to last week: Feeder steers sold 2.00-5.00 higher. Feeder heifers 2.00-4.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves under 500 lbs not well tested. Steer calves over 500 lbs steady. Heifer calves over 500 lbs 2.00-6.00 lower. Demand moderate to good. Demand good for heifers over 600 lbs. Quality average and improved from last week. Early winter weather sent grass pastures to dormancy and this along with a weekend of nice weather increased supply for today.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/4/2019
Total Receipts: 4,678 Last Week: 2,434 Last Year: 3,505
Compared to last week: Steers 7.00-9.00 higher. Heifers 6.00-8.00 higher. Quality good. Demand good. Slaughter cows 2.00-5.00 higher. Slaughter bulls 3.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 119,000 head, up 6,000 from the week previous but down 3,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 491,000 head, up 1,000 compared to the week previous and up 16,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on Choice and weak on Select on light to moderate demand and offerings for a total of 115 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__236.05 +1.24
Select Cutout__209.82 -.56
CME Feeder Index__146.24 -.21
CME Lean Hog Index__60.36 -.52
Pork Carcass Cutout__79.50 +.75
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__41.01 +1.66, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__45.83 -.61
National Wtd Avg Live Price__39.35 +.01, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__46.08 -.73
December live cattle continuing into new recent highs now above the $120 mark with resistance up near $124 and support first at $116 then $114.40. November feeders hit a new 5-month high at $149.40 last Friday but has since stalled out. This also is right at the 62% retracement level from the mid-April high at $161.85 down to the September low at $127.55 with nearby support near $145. December lean hogs holding the lower trend that has been in place since mid-April with support at $63.50 and resistance at $69.
Grains were mixed again yesterday with corn and soybeans lower but wheat higher. Egypt purchased another 3 cargoes of wheat yesterday from France and Russia but most expected to see higher prices when in fact the average price paid was over $2/MT cheaper than a week ago. Domestic basis levels continue to rally though trying to pull both low pro and high protein wheat out of storage with futures flat and spreads wide enough to cover on farm storage but not wide enough to cover commercial storage costs and interest. Corn and soybean markets have been mixed this week, both awaiting USDA’s crop report this Friday. The average pre report private estimate for both are looking for a slight reduction in yield, production and ending stocks which would be friendly and could lead to a test of the mid-October recent highs. If left unchanged though or increased could lead to a test of support levels some 10 cents lower for corn and 30 cents lower for soybeans.
Overnight, grains traded steady to higher, but only 2 to 4 cent ranges. Corn finished steady to 2 higher, soybeans 1 higher and wheat 1 to 2 higher.
As the saga continues with the U.S. and China, the EU is making strides as they agreed to protect products from each other’s countries and France struck a deal worth $15B which included clearing the way for 20 companies to export poultry to China. Earlier this week, China lifted bans on imports of poultry and products from Spain and Slovakia. China’s state-owned agriculture conglomerate COFCO said earlier today it has agreed to buy $100 million worth of pork from top European pork producer Danish Crown by 2020.
USDA November Crop Report Average Trade Estimates
• US corn yield 167.2 BPA vs. 168.4 last month, production 13.604 BBU vs. 13.779 and ending stocks 1.8 BBU vs. 1.929
• US soybean yield 46.6 BPA vs. 46.9, production 3.513 BBU vs. 3.55 and ending stocks 432 MBU vs. 460 MBU
Much below normal temps hit from the Northern Plains to the East Coast today through early next week with possibly heavy snow in the Upper Midwest and Northeast. The 6 to 10 day outlook continues to show below normal temps from the Rockies through the East Coast and above normal on the West Coast with above normal moisture in the Southeast and Northeast and below normal for the West Coast and Southwest.
December corn breaking the higher trend that started in early September, now holding a lower trend since the October high at $4.02 ½ with support at $3.80. January soybeans peaked at $9.59 ½ mid-October which matches the highs from earlier this summer. The higher trend is still holding from early September with support at $9.25 and resistance at $9.42. December KC wheat with support at $4.15 and resistance up at $4.37. December Chicago wheat with support at $5.01 and resistance at $5.35. December MPLS wheat with support at $5.18 and resistance up near $5.40. December soybean meal with support at $301.50 and resistance up at $306.70.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700