Date: May 6, 2024
Livestock futures mixed on fairly quiet trading on Friday, especially compared to past few trading sessions with live cattle posting over $2 gains or losses and feeders $3 to $4. Early week losses though from Avian flu in more dairies to USDA announcing testing on ground beef, was met with positive news to end the week. No beef samples tested positive, weekly export sales shot up to 25,500 MT, a new marketing year high and cash feedlot trade was again higher. Cash fed cattle trade reported in the South at $2 higher than the week previous at mostly $184 live. Northern live trade $1 to $2 higher at $186 to $187 but dressed trade remained steady at $295.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…June Live Cattle -$1.90, August -$2.20, May Feeder Cattle -$5.40, August -$5.80, May Lean Hogs -$1.85, June -$3.52. Choice Boxed Beef -$2.94 at $294.20 and Pork Carcass Cutout +$.49 at $98.12.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/28/2024 – 5/4/2024
Compared to last week: Steers sold 3.00-6.00 lower. Heifers under 650lbs steady. Heifers over 650lbs 2.00-5.00 lower. Slaughter cows steady to 2.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 619,000 head, up 6,000 from the week previous but down 2,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 523.9 million pounds last week with year to date -2.3% vs. last year and year to date slaughter -4.5%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,406,000 head, up 27,000 compared to a week ago but down 46,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 519.8 million pounds last week with year to date +0.1% compared to last year and year to date slaughter +0.5%.
Boxed beef cutout values last Friday higher on Choice but lower on Select on moderate demand with 97 loads sold.
Choice +1.30 @ 294.20, Select -.33 @ 287.65
CME Feeder Cattle Index 242.39
CME Lean Hog Index 90.96
Pork Carcass Cutout +.24 @ 98.12
June live cattle trying to hold a month-long higher trend with support at $172.70 then the April low at $170.25 and resistance at $179.65 then at $181.12. May feeders short term higher trend taken out last week with support at $240, the April low at $232.62 and resistance at $249.70 then $251.30. May lean hogs expire next Tuesday. June down to a new 2-month low last Friday with support next at $97.60 and resistance at $103.90.
All grains and oilseeds finished the week higher with most contracts hitting new recent highs. Weather around the world the most impactful last week. Flooding in Brazil which could reduce the crop 1-3 MMT. Dry conditions across major wheat producing countries across Europe and into Russia with many private estimates already reducing crop production estimates. Disease rapidly spreading in Argentina’s corn crop and Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cutting production estimates again, down another 3 MMT to 46.5 MMT, USDA last month still at 55 MMT. The US$ hit new contract highs midweek, but then reversed lower and fell off over 2 points to end the week.
Weekly closes in the grains…July Corn +$.10 ¼, December +$.09 ¼, July Soybeans +$.37 ¾, November +$.26 ¼, July Chicago Wheat +$.00 ¼, September +$.01 ¼, July KC Wheat -$.04, September -$.03, July MPLS Wheat +$.11, September +$.09 ½, July Soybean Meal +$27.5/T.
Grains were lower overnight with corn and soybeans finishing 1 to 2 lower and wheat 3 to 10 lower. Outside markets have equities higher, US$ lower and energies higher with crude oil up $.40/barrel. Russia did receive some beneficial rain over the weekend and temps forecasted to be near average after the driest April in over a decade and record high temps.
USDA will release weekly export inspections later this morning and Crop Progress and Conditions this afternoon. Corn and soybean planting should still be ahead of the 5-year averages, corn at 49% and soybeans 35%, but most likely falling behind last year’s pace.
A round of storms expected to fire up later today and move across the WCB with heavy rains in the forecast over this next week across the Southeast and ECB. The 6-10 day outlook shows above normal temps for the western half of the U.S. and below normal in the South and eastern half with above normal moisture in the Southwest and below normal from the PNW across the Northern Border States and covering the Corn Belt.
July corn up to a new 4-month high on Friday with resistance next at $4.71 and support at $4.47. July soybeans a new high for the month overnight with resistance at $12.40 and support at $11.70. July Chicago wheat recent high the last two weeks around $6.33 with resistance next at $6.50 and nearby support at $5.93. July KC wheat recent highs from $6.62 to $6.64 with resistance next at $6.70 and support at $6.02. July MPLS wheat up to a new 4-month high last Friday with resistance next at $7.50 and support at $6.82. July soybean meal also a new 4-month high on Friday with resistance next at $395 and support at $341.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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