Date: August 9th, 2021
Livestock futures mostly higher last Friday which pulled cattle futures higher for the week, hogs still mixed. Cattle futures still holding higher trends but lean hogs into new recent lows last week. Negotiated cash feedlot trade started steady to $1 higher in the North and picked up midweek at $1 to $2 higher in the South. Nebraska and Iowa trade up to $125 to $126 live and $197 to $198 dressed with trade in KS and TX at $121 to $122 live. USDA will begin two new weekly reports beginning next week. Cattle base prices of formula agreements will be published on Monday and cattle sales volumes at weighted average prices for transaction types will be published on Tuesday.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/1/2021 – 8/7/2021
Current Week: 27,920 Last Week: 26,768 Last Year: 27,790
Compared to last week: Feeder steers mostly steady to 2.00 lower. Feeder heifers steady to 5.00 higher. Steer calves sold steady to 4.00 lower. Heifer calves unevenly steady. Demand moderate to good for all classes.
For the week, Friday July 30th through Friday August 6th, August Live Cattle +$.92, October +$.67, August Feeder Cattle +$1.65, September +$1.52, August Lean Hogs +$2.55, October -$.42. Boxed Beef, Choice +$17.80 @ $296.26, Select +$17.90 @ $277.09, Pork Carcass Cutout -$.22 @ $123.67.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 113,000 head and Saturday at 48,000. For the week, 641,000 head, down 8,000 from the week previous but up 8,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 522.7 million pounds compared to 528.3 million the week previous and 526.2 million last year. Year to date beef production +4.5% compared to last year with slaughter +4.4%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 455,000 head and Saturday at 55,000. For the week, 2,327,000 head, up 15,000 compared to the week previous but down 223,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 487.8 million pounds compared to 484.2 the week previous and 540.4 million last year. Year to date pork production now -0.9% compared to a year ago with slaughter -1.1%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday continued higher on light to moderate demand with 93 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__296.26 +3.68
Select Cutout__277.09 +3.32
CME Feeder Cattle Index__156.55 +.75
CME Lean Hog Index__112.05 -.43
Pork Carcass Cutout__123.67 +.55
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__99.15 -.76
August live cattle still holding the long term higher trend, contract high back on June 16th at $125.77, nearby support at $121 and resistance around $124. August feeders trending higher since early May with the contract high on July 26th at $163.15 and support around $155. August lean hogs holding a higher trend since late June, expiring this Friday. The higher trend for the October contract taken out last week with support at $83.50 and resistance at $90 then $94.
Grains finished last week higher, wheat continued to lead the charge as adverse weather is impacting the wheat crops in Europe and Russia. World values have been increasing the past couple weeks which is supporting higher winter wheat prices. Corn held gains for the week but soybeans finished lower. The weekend rains will be the most talked about item heading into this week. The 6–10-day outlook still showing hot and dry but backing off some from the excessive heat experienced the past couple weeks.
For the week, Friday July 30th through Friday August 6th, September Corn +$.08, December +$.11 ¼, November Soybeans -$.12 ½, January -$.13, September KC Wheat +$.32 ½, December +$.33 ¼, September Chicago Wheat +$.15 ¼, December +$.20 ¼, September MPLS Wheat +$.11 ½, December +$.12 ¼, September Soybean Meal +$4.50/T, December +$3.80/T.
Grains lower overnight as scattered rains, some crop saving, fell across the Corn Belt over the weekend. Outside markets also under pressure with equities pointing lower, crude down $3/barrel and gold continuing sharply lower. Corn and soybeans finished the overnight 6 to 7 lower with MPLS wheat steady but both KC and Chicago wheat 5 lower.
Soybean sales starting to pick up as U.S. values are competitive again and will soon take over as primary exporter from Brazil. USDA announced a private sale this morning of 104,000 MT or 3.8 MBU for delivery to unknown destinations.
Scattered rains over the weekend ranging from ½ inch to 6 inches from the Dakotas down to Oklahoma and east across all the Corn Belt. Rain over the next few days though primarily in the ECB again as above normal temps dominate the WCB. The 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps and below normal moisture for all major growing areas, below normal temps and above normal moisture only in the Southwest.
September corn with support at $5.40 and resistance at $5.60 then $5.80. December corn continues to tighten or squeeze with support at $5.40 and resistance around $5.70. November soybeans also showing a squeeze or wedge with support holding last week around $13.10 and resistance at $13.60 then $13.80. September KC wheat hitting a new recent high last week at $7.19 with the next resistance up around $7.25 and support at $6.85. September Chicago wheat also a new recent high last week at $7.38 ¾, resistance next around $7.50 and support at $7.09. September MPLS wheat support at $8.70, resistance at $9.27 and the contract high from July 19th at $9.44 ½.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700