Date: June 26th, 2019
Cattle futures again mixed yesterday with fats higher and feeders lower. Cash feedlot trade quiet on Monday with just a few hundred head moving at $178 dressed which is the bottom end of the range from last week. Tuesday a few thousand head traded in the North at $108 live and $180 dressed, steady with last week. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held later this morning with only 148 head consigned compared to last week’s 315 head of which none sold. Lean hogs able to stay triple digits higher yesterday, although still an inside trading day form the previous session and at this time just a pause in the price collapse witnessed since mid-April. USDA will release its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report after the close Thursday with the expectations for all hogs as of June 1st at 103% vs. a year ago and the spring pig crop to be 103%. China announced they will ban all Canadian meat imports yesterday as they up to as many as 188 fake vet health certs.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/24/2019
Total Receipts: 10,718 Last Week: 3,766 Last Year: 9,442
Compare to last week, steer calves unevenly steady, yearlings steers under 750 lbs steady to 2.00 higher, over 750 lbs 2.00 to 7.00 higher, heifer calves under 500 lbs steady, heifers 500 to 700 lbs steady to 4.00 lower, yearling heifers over 700 lbs steady to 3.00 higher, with limited comparisons on yearlings last week. Demand moderate to good, supply heavy. Several strings of true yearlings, most with favorable weigh-ups.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/24/2019
Total Receipts: 7,121 Last Week: 7,883 Last Year: 8,156
Compared to last week: Feeder steers mostly 1.00-4.00 higher, instances of 6.00-7.00 higher. Feeder heifers 1.00- 4.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves not well tested on limited comparable sales. Demand moderate to very good.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/24/2019
Total Receipts: 1,249 Last Week: 2,030 Last Year: 2,250
Compared to last week: Receipts reduced as much of the area received another 5-6 inches of rain over the weekend. All classes lightly tested. Steers mostly steady. Heifers 1.00-4.00 lower in a limited test. Demand very good for steers, moderate for heifers. Quality mostly average. Slaughters cows 3.00-5.00 lower. Slaughter bulls 6.00 lower. Packer demand moderate to good.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 121,000 head, up 1,000 from last week and up 7,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 475,000 head, down 2,000 compared to last week but up 28,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values steady on Choice and lower on Select on weak to moderate demand and moderate to good offerings for a total of 151 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__219.64 -.10
Select Cutout__198.95 -.86
CME Feeder Index__131.46 +.05
CME Lean Hog Index__78.31 -.34
Pork Carcass Cutout__75.58 -1.75
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__58.55 no comp, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__72.39 -5.61 from the last price quoted back on July 19th
National Wtd Avg Live Price__58.06 -.04, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__72.18 -1.33
June live cattle holding above $106 and set to expire this Friday with cash trade this week still premium at $108. The August contract hit a new contract low on Monday at $101.97 with resistance up at $107.17, the June high, then up at $110. The weekly nearby low from last year was down at $101.37. August feeders also into a new contract low on Monday at $130.95. Support next at $128.57, the nearby weekly low from last year, with resistance up near $136 then $141. July lean hogs into a new recent low Monday at $72.60 with the contact low down at $70.05 and resistance up near $84.
Grains were also mixed with not much new news out yesterday. Friday’s USDA crop reports are on the horizon, of course matching up with end of month trading and first notice day for July contracts. Crop progress was friendly but not super bullish as soybeans were unable to sustain overnight momentum. The updated U.S. weather forecasts at midday didn’t change much, still calling for warmer temps which is badly needed and more important right now than the above normal precipitation still in the extended forecasts.
Overnight, grains were under a little pressure from the dry and warm forecasts. Corn and soybeans both finished 3 to 4 lower while wheat was 1 higher to 3 lower.
Taiwan purchased 15,000 MT of U.S. corn and soybeans overnight. The Philippines announced a snap tender for 200,000 MT or 7.35 MBU of feed wheat as Jordan had been seeking 120,000 MT or 4.4 MBU this week with reported no purchase made. USDA announced a private sale 145,000 MT or 5.3 MBU of old crop soybeans sold for unknown destinations.
Stats Canada out this morning with their update on acreage as the expectations were lower canola, soybean and corn acres vs. higher wheat and barley acres. All in line with expectations except wheat at 24.595 million compared to 24.8 spring intentions.
Stats Canada June Principal Crops Seeded Acreage Estimates
Crop |June |June |Spring 2019
(mln acres) |Actual |Expectations |Intentions |2018
Canola |20.952 |20.7 |21.31 |22.8
Soybean |5.714 |5.7 |6.65 |6.32
Flaxseed |.937 |1.1 |1.00 |.90
All Wheat |24.595|25.7|24.8|24.7
Spring Wheat |18.772| | |17.3
Durum Wheat |4.894|5.1|5.02|6.20
Barley |7.402|7.4|7.16|6.50
Oats |3.606|3.3|3.29|3.10
Corn |3.694|3.6|3.79|3.64
USDA acreage report coming this Friday with estimates for corn acres down to 87 million compared to 92.8 million in the March intentions and 89.8 in the June WASDE. Soybean acres are not expected to change in this report, currently at 84.6 million, USDA stated last month they would look at soybean acres and adjust if need be on their July crop report. With all that said, just a reminder this is survey data from June 1st on which most still had intentions to plant corn and soybeans and USDA at that time was only reporting 2/3 of the corn crop in the ground and approximately 1/3 of the soybeans.
Weather of course still the main the focus for the markets with planting effectively complete and now onto growing conditions. Over this next week, light scattered rain in the forecast for the Midwest with 1+ inches for the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook still showing above normal temperatures for all major growing areas, below normal in East TX, with above normal precipitation back in the mix for most areas.
July corn with support at $4.40, December at $4.50. Last week’s highs up at $4.64 for July and $4.73 for December with the next nearby historical high at $5.19 from during the spring of 2014. July soybeans still holding a higher trend since hitting the contract low at $7.91 back on May 13th. Nearby support at $8.96 and resistance up at last week’s high of $9.21 ½. July KC wheat holding support near $4.50 with spikes the last few weeks up to $4.87 and $4.97. July Chicago wheat still holding a higher trend with support near $5.15 and resistance up near $5.50. July Soybean Meal with support near $315 and resistance up at $328.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700