Date: May 8, 2024
Livestock futures and grains flipped places on Tuesday with all cattle and lean hogs contracts higher while all grains and oilseeds lower except new crop corn and beans. Cattle markets are still hesitant, taking a wait and see approach not only for more cash fed cattle trade later this week but the continued headline watching in regards to Avian Flu. Only light volume cash fat cattle trade so far this week in IA at $184 to $185 live, steady to $2 lower than a week ago. A recap of last week’s cash fed cattle trade showed feedlots selling 92,693 head, 58,165 head for nearby delivery and 34,528 head for deferred delivery with a weighted average at $185.69 live and $294.90 dressed. Beef prices soaring higher this week with Choice back above the $300 level, as of yesterday morning but not holding above by the afternoon recap. Grocers’ are securing their needs ahead of Memorial Day weekend, the unofficial start of grilling season. Cash hog market fundamentals have been bearish and providing recent pressure to futures.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/6/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 6,263 Last Week: 5,607 Last Year: 10,252
Compared to last week feeder steers sold 6.00 lower to 5.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold steady to 8.00 lower. 7 weight index steers averaged $253-$255 and 8 weights averaged $228-$242.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/6/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 5,147 Last Week: 5,929 Last Year: 8,319
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 3.00 lower. Feeder heifers unevenly steady. Light test on steer and heifer calves but a lower undertone noted. Demand moderate. Quality average. 7 weight index steers averaged $259-$272 and 8 weights averaged $230-$240.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/6/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 2,988 Last Report: 2,501 Last Year: 3,783
Compared to last week: Steers 750 lbs and under, too limited last week for comparison. Upward trend noted. Steers 800 lbs 3.00 lower with color and flesh bringing a discount, 900 lb steers 5.00 higher. Heifers 600 lbs were 7.00-9.00 higher, 700 lbs 2.00 lower, 750 lbs 6.00-8.00 lower. 7 weight index steers averaged $259-$274 and 8 weights averaged $243-$251.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/7/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 2,135 Last Week: 1,914 Last Year: 3,442
Compared to last week, steers under 700lbs were 2.00 to 10.00 higher with spots up to 15.00 higher, heavier weights were not well tested. Heifers sold steady to 6.00 higher with spots up to 12.00 higher. Demand was very good on a moderate supply.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 124,000 head, matching last week and down 4,619 from last year. Hog slaughter estimated at 478,000 head, down 4,000 compared to a week ago but up 27,258 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday lower on Choice but higher on Select on moderate demand with 100 loads sold.
Choice -.27 @ 298.49, Select +2.59 @ 292.34
CME Feeder Cattle Index 239.53
CME Lean Hog Index 91.03
Pork Carcass Cutout -2.41 @ 97.09
June live cattle holding a month-long higher trend with support at $172.70 then the April low at $170.25 and resistance at $179.65 then at $181.12. May feeders chopping in nearly a $20 range over the past month and half with support at $240, the April low at $232.62 and resistance at $249.70 then $251.30. May lean hogs expire next Tuesday. June continues to fade into new recent lows with support next around $94 and resistance around $102.
Grains took a break on Tuesday, yet most contracts still hit new recent highs for the third to fourth consecutive trading day. New crop soybeans held decent gains into the close and new crop corn held steady to fractionally higher as weather is the major market mover right now. USDA reported corn planting pace now falling behind both last year and the 5-year average with a fairly wet forecast again this week across the Corn Belt. Major flooding still an issue in Rio Grande de Sul, Brazil and potentially a hard freeze for southern Argentina. Little fresh news beyond that and the May crop report coming from USDA on Friday could keep markets subdued until then.
Grains traded lower overnight, again led by the wheat markets. KC wheat finished 10 lower, Chicago wheat 8 lower and MPLS wheat 5 lower while corn was only 2 lower and beans 7 to 8 lower. Outside markets have equities lower, US$ higher, and energies lower with crude oil down $.60/barrel. The weekly EIA report will be out later this morning with expectations for 1% to 2% lower ethanol production, slightly lower blender demand but improved exports with stocks 1% to 2% lower.
Friday’s crop report will be the first official S&D for the 2024/25 crop year. Yields are expected to start over 180 for U.S. corn and right at 52 BPA for soybeans. Ending stocks for corn, soybeans and wheat are all expected higher than the current marketing year, but this is already baked in the current trade. Old crop demand could see some adjustments such as decreased soybean exports but overall the average trade estimates are nearly unchanged from a month ago. South American production estimates will again be closely watched as USDA remains on the upper end of Brazil’s corn and bean crop as well as Argentina’s corn crop estimate.
Scattered rains continue this week across the Corn Belt and the Southeast with heavy rains again early next week in the Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook shows normal to above normal temps across the entire country with below moisture only in the PNW and above normal for the majority of the U.S.
July corn up to a new 4-month high yesterday with resistance next at $4.80 and support at $4.50. July soybeans also a new 4-month high yesterday with resistance next at $12.59 and support at $11.90. July Chicago wheat up to a new high for the year yesterday with resistance next at $6.50 and nearby support at $5.95. July KC wheat also hit a new high for the year and near last December highs, with resistance at $6.80 and support at $6.22. July MPLS wheat up to a new 4-month high on Monday with resistance at $7.38 and support at $6.90. July soybean meal hitting a new high for the year yesterday with resistance next at $395 and support around $350.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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