Date: January 11th, 2021
Livestock futures mostly under selling pressure to start the New Year. Cash feedlot trade though held steady with the week previous at $112 live in the South. In Nebraska, negotiated cash trading was reported steady to $1 higher at $175 to $177 on a dressed basis. Feed costs continue to increase pressuring feeders but demand still remains high in the country.
For the week, Thursday December 31st through Friday January 8th, February Live Cattle -$.55, April +$.05, January Feeder Cattle -$3.12, March -$3.40, February Lean Hogs -$1.57, April +$.57, February Pork Cutout -$.70.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 117,000 head, up 3,000 from last year with Saturday at 68,000. For the week, 651,000 head, up 136,000 from the week previous but down 8,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 544.9 million pounds. Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 487,000 head, down 2,000 compared to a year ago with Saturday at 391,000. For the week, 2,849,000 head, up 681,000 compared to the week previous and up 154,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 621.4 million pounds.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday were higher with 138 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__206.80 +.99
Select Cutout__196.69 +.10
CME Feeder Cattle Index__135.63 +.28
CME Lean Hog Index__63.34 +.38
Pork Carcass Cutout__81.00 +1.18
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__53.35
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__54.94
February live cattle still holding a higher trend since late October with support at $113.00 and resistance at from $116.00 to $116.60. January feeders breaking lower the past 2 weeks with nearby support taken out last week and the next support level down at $133, resistance at $142. February lean hogs breaking higher last week to test the resistance at $72 then pull back into the range bound trading pattern that has held for the past couple months with support around $67.
Corn and soybeans continue to make new highs as wheat was unable to follow this past week. Domestic basis levels are seeing some weakness at ethanol plants and soy crush plants but export terminals and along the rivers are holding firm as exports continue to be strong. Wheat faded some to end the week as winter weather has been fairly mild so far and rain chances entered the nearby forecasts for the Southern Plains. USDA will update supply and demand on Tuesday as most expect to see lower production estimates for Argentina and Brazil.
For the week, Thursday December 31st through Friday January 8th, March Corn +$.12 ¼, May +$.14 ¼, March Soybeans +$.63 ¾, May +$.64 ½, March KC Wheat -$.08 ¾, May -$.07, March Chicago Wheat -$.01 ¾, May +$.01 ¼, March MPLS Wheat +$.08 ½, May +$.09, March Soybean Meal +$10.20/T, May +$12.40/T.
Overnight, soybeans continue to lead the charge higher, again making new contract highs. Soybeans finished 3 to 7 higher, corn steady to 1 higher and wheat 2 to 6 higher.
Argentina’s Ag Ministry has removed the planned corn export ban, but replaced it with 30,000 MT per day foreign sales cap. USDA announced private sales this morning of 132,000 MT or 4.85 MBU of soybeans sold to China and 108,500 MT or 4.3 MBU of corn sold to Colombia.
Tomorrow is a major report day with Quarterly Stocks, the Final Production estimates from NASS on the 2020 crops, 2021 Winter Wheat Acres and updated supply and demand estimates for the U.S. and world. The following are the average pre report trade estimates…
USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks
U.S. Corn stocks as of Dec 1st at 11.95 BBU, compared to a year ago at 11.327 BBU
U.S. Soybean stocks as of Dec 1st at 2.920 BBU, compared to a year ago at 3.252 BBU
U.S. Wheat stocks as of Dec 1st at 1.695 BBU, compared to a year ago at 1.841 BBU
U.S. final 2020 Corn production at 14.47 BBU, down from November’s estimate at 14.507 BBU
U.S. final 2020 Soybean production at 4.158 BBU, down from November’s 4.170 BBU
2021 US winter wheat acres at 31.53 million acres, last year’s final acres were 30.42 million. HRW acres are expected at 22.14 million, SRW acres at 5.88 million and white winter at 3.51 million.
U.S. Corn ending stocks at 1.59 BBU, down from December’s estimate at 1.702 BBU
U.S. Soybean ending stocks at 140 MBU, down from December’s estimate at 175 MBU
U.S. Wheat ending stocks at 860 MBU, down from December’s estimate at 862 MBU
World Corn ending stocks at 283.5 MMT, down from December’s 288.96 MMT
World Soybean ending stocks at 82.7 MMT, down from December’s 85.64 MMT
World Wheat ending stocks at 315.4 MMT, down from December’s 316.50 MMT
20/21 Argentina Corn production at 47.4 MMT, down from December’s 49.0 MMT
20/21 Brazil Corn production at 107.7 MMT, down from December’s 110.0 MMT
20/21 Argentina Soybean production at 48.4 MMT, down from December’s 50.0 MMT
20/21 Brazil Soybean production at 131.4 MMT, down from December’s 133.0 MMT
Weekend rains were better than expected in Argentina bringing relief to approximately 2/3 of the major crop producing area. Brazil overall remains in better shape with average conditions continuing as Argentina’s nearby forecast is dry again. U.S. weather continues to be fairly mild this week. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for the West Coast and Northern Plains, below normal in Southeast, with below normal moisture on the West Coast, Southwest and portions of the Southern Plains, above normal stretching from MT and ND down into CO.
March corn with a new contract high last week at $5.02 ¾. The next resistance from the continuous weekly chart up at $5.19 ½ from 2014. March soybeans a new contract high overnight at $13.88 ¾, the next area or resistance, $14 to $14.10, also from 2014. March KC wheat, a new high last week at $6.16 ½ with support at $5.75. March Chicago wheat, new contract high last week at $6.64 ½ with support at $6.07. March soybean meal a new contract high at overnight at $445.80, resistance next up at $464.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700