Date: May 15th, 2019
Cattle futures tried for a turnaround Tuesday but faded as the day progressed as hogs remain bipolar finishing triple digits higher after limit lower Monday. Some IA cash feedlot trade at $118 live & $186 to $190 dressed reported so far this week, which is $2 to $4 lower than last week, some for delivery 2 weeks out. So far in the South, bids at $116 passed. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held later this morning with 376 head consigned compared to last week’s 863 head of which 670 head sold from KS and OK at $120.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/13/2019
Receipts: 1,549 Last Week: 2,289 Last year: 2,317
Compared to last week: Steers and Heifers 4.00-6.00 lower, in a light test. Demand good. Quality good. Slaughter cows mostly steady to 2.00 higher. Slaughter bulls 4.00 higher.
Winter Livestock – La Junta, CO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/14/2019
Receipts: 1,780 Last Week: 3,198 Last year: 1,905
Compared with last Tuesday: Feeder steers and heifers under 800 lbs lightly tested, feeder steers and heifers over 800 steady. Slaughter cows and bulls steady. Trade and Demand moderate for feeder steers and heifers under 700 lbs to good for weights over 800 lbs
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 121,000 head, matching a week ago and up 1,000 compared to a year ago. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 460,000 head, down 12,000 from last week and matching last year.
Boxed beef cutout values lower on Choice and steady on Select on light to moderate demand and moderate offerings for a total of 126 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__220.12 -1.46
Select Cutout__208.97 +.08
CME Feeder Index__135.07 -.32
CME Lean Hog Index__83.27 +.23
Pork Carcass Cutout__88.64 +.40
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__62.37 no comp, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__82.50 -.39
National Wtd Avg Live Price__62.67 +.24, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__82.02 +1.38
China’s Ag ministry indicate their sow herd fell 22.3% year over year in April due to African swine fever, up from 21% in March. Rabobank has warned that pork production could decline up to 35%. The overall pig herd has dropped 20.8% according to the Ag minister.
June live cattle continue to make new recent lows, now $109.35, with $109 the lows back from this past fall and $107.50 the next support area, resistance around $115.00. May feeders hit a new contract low at $133.67 last week with support next near $132 then $130 and resistance up at $138.30 then $146.30. June lean hogs found support at $85.37 last week, still showing a lower trend since the mid-April high at $99.82, but holding a higher trend this past week. Resistance is holding near the $90 level with the 10-day moving average just below and the 50-day moving average just above.
Corn gapped higher and held double digit gains, wheat has bounced $.20 plus off its lows and soybeans felt left out of the party Monday so traded as much as $.36 higher and finished $.29 higher yesterday. The continued wet weather and delayed planting grabbed the attention of the markets with corn only 30% planted compared to 59% a year ago and 66% 5-year average. The real attention grabber may have been IL only advancing 1% last week to now 11% planted compared to 88% last year and 82% 5-year average.
IEG Vantage, formerly known as Informa, updated projected U.S. acreage yesterday. They estimate a total of 90.692 million acres of corn will be planted compared to USDA’s 92.8 million and soybeans acres up to 86.4 compared to USDA’s 84.6 million. Spring wheat acres are estimated at 12.36 compared to 12.8 million by USDA. Again, don’t assume that acreage will automatically switch from corn to soybeans with the current delays, many are running the numbers and looking at other alternatives or possibly even prevent plant.
Overnight, grains continue to rally with corn finishing 5 to 7 higher, soybeans 8 to 9 higher and wheat 6 to 8 higher.
For the first time in over a decade Australia will import Wheat due largely to drought conditions there. The Canadian wheat shipment is expected for arrival end of June to mid-July. This should help U.S. wheat exports as SE Asia is a major importer and breaking into the Middle East and North African market has become much more difficult with great crops in Russian and EU and expectations for bumper crops this year.
Ahead of this morning’s NOPA monthly soybean crush report, the expectations is for the report to show 161.6 MBU of soybeans crushed domestically during April. For comparison March crush was 170.0 MBU and April 2018 crush was 161.02 MBU. End of month Soyoil stockpiles expected to be at 1.779 billion pounds, which compares to the 1.761 billion at the end of March and 2.092 at the end of last April.
Heavy rains more towards the end of this week and into the weekend for the Southern Plains and upper Midwest and covering the western Corn Belt for the weekend and into early next week. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook showing above normal precipitation for all expect in the Southeast with below normal temps northcentral and west and above normal southcentral and east.
July corn into a new contact low at $3.43 with a key reversal higher Monday, gap higher move yesterday and now over $.30 higher. July broke through nearby resistance into a new recent high with the next resistance level up near $3.90. July soybeans broke the $8 barrier and down to a new contact low at $7.91 on Monday. The low from 2008 is down at $7.76 ¼. July filled the gap left from earlier this month with resistance next up near $8.76. July KC wheat with a new contract low at $3.82 then reversing higher, breaking the first level of resistance with the next up near $4.28 ½ then $4.41. July Chicago wheat new contract low at $4.18 ½ with a key reversal higher Monday. Resistance next is up at $4.68.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700