Date: October 17th, 2022
Livestock futures trading mixed all week with live cattle back and forth, feeders under pressure and lean hogs extending their recent rally. Cash fed cattle trade steady to $2 than the week previous with live trade in the South at $145 and trade in North ranging from $145 to $150 live and mostly $232 on a dressed basis. For the second week in a row, sales volumes were lighter than the previous week and asking prices should be sharply higher this week. Weekly export sales and shipments for beef were light last week as international demand is becoming a concern. Pork sales and shipments friendly, just under the 30K MT level and China continues to be a good buyer.
For the week, Friday October 7th through Friday October 14th, October Live Cattle +$1.62, December -$.27, October Feeder Cattle -$.92, November -$.85, October Lean Hogs +$.42, December +$5.10. Boxed Beef, Choice +$.91 @ $246.98, Select +$.81 @ $216.94, Pork Carcass Cutout +$.32 @ $101.86.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/9/22-10/15/22
Current Week: 35,762 Last Report 10/3/22: 40,461 Last Year: 27,591
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers steady to 3.00 lower. Steer calves steady to 2.00 lower. Heifer calves mostly steady. Demand moderate for all classes.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 660,000 head, down 4,000 from the week previous but up 17,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 547.1 million pounds last week with year to date remaining +1.4% vs. last year and slaughter up to +1.6%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,545,000 head, down 13,000 compared to the week previous and down 85,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 540.2 million pounds last week with year to date remaining -2.5% compared to a year ago and slaughter -3.1%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on moderate demand with 104 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__246.98 +.45
Select Cutout__216.94 +1.08
CME Feeder Cattle Index__174.11 +.08
CME Lean Hog Index__93.09 +.42
Pork Carcass Cutout __101.86 -1.21
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__87.80 -1.46, 5,244 head
October live cattle still holding the long term higher trend with support at $145, a new recent high last Friday at $14717 and the contract high at $147.50. October feeders holding a two month long lower trend with a new recent low last week at $171.45, the contract low at $168.87 and resistance at $176.62. December lean hogs now the front month holding a higher trend so far this month with support at $77 and resistance around $84.
Grains under pressure to end the week but corn and soybeans still able hold week over week gains as the pressure Friday on wheat caused week over week losses. Corn and wheat weekly export sales were a little light but soybean sales remain on pace with China very active the past couple weeks. USDA dropped the U.S. corn and soybean yield this past week as harvest progressing swiftly as there have been very few breaks. Weather remains dry dropping moisture that could lead to additional harvest losses. Dry weather supportive for wheat futures as planting continues in dry conditions and rains are desperately needed across the Southern Plains to get wheat germinating.
For the week, Friday October 7th through Friday October 14th, December Corn +$.06 ½, March +$.05 ¼, November Soybeans +$.16 ¾, January +$.13 ½, December KC Wheat -$.16 ½, March -$.15 ½, December Chicago Wheat -$.20 ½, March -$.18, December MPLS Wheat -$.13 ¾, March -$.12 ¾, October Soybean Meal +$13.60/T, December +10.40/T.
Grains were mixed overnight with corn and soybeans not string to far from unchanged and wheat higher. Russia continues its attacks on Kyiv and eastern Ukraine with a new round of drone and missile strikes. Corn finished the overnight steady to 1 lower, soybeans 1 to 3 higher and wheat 7 to 11 higher. Outside markets supportive with the US$ lower, energies higher and equites higher this morning.
Argentina corn planting pace the slowest in 6 years due to severely dry conditions. Only 1.6 million hectares (4 million acres) planted, half that of last year’s pace, and around 10% of the expected acres to be planted. Brazil soybean planting progress up to 24% complete with a massive 6 million hectares (nearly 15 million acres) planted last week.
Much below normal temps across the Midwest, freezing temps for the next few nights. Light rains in the forecast in the Southern Plains and Western Corn Belt early next week. The 6-10 day outlook finally shifting with below normal temps for the western third of the U.S. and above normal temps for the eastern half and above normal moisture for the western half with below normal only in the Northeast.
December corn holding a higher trend since late July with a new recent high last Monday at $7.06 ½, resistance next at $7.25 and support at $6.80. November soybeans continue to chop sideways but holding a month long lower trend with support at $13.50 and resistance at $14.14. December KC Wheat a new recent high last Monday at $10.37 ½ with resistance next up around $10.50 and support at $9.50. December Chicago also a new recent high last Monday at $9.49 ¾ with resistance next at $9.54 and support around $8.50. December MPLS wheat has resistance at $10.24 and support around $9.50. December soybean meal has resistance at $419 and support at 403.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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