Date: September 21st, 2022
Livestock futures mixed yesterday as higher grains pressuring feeders once again but live cattle and hogs were able to hold small gains even with another red day in the stock market. The FED began meetings yesterday that most feel will result in yet another interest rate hike. Cash fed cattle trade still only light volume at $145 to $147 live and $227 dressed in the North which would be steady to $1 higher than last week. As live cattle futures are still hanging on, there’s still talk we can see $1 to $2 higher trade. Cattle on feed report coming this Friday with expectations for the same on feed numbers vs. a year ago but 2% less placements in August and 6% higher marketings.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/19/2022 – Final
This Week: 6,647 Last Week: 9,932 Last Year: 6,687
Compared to last week: Feeder steers mostly 3.00 – 5.00 lower, instance to 7.00 lower. Feeder heifers steady in a light test. Demand moderate for feeder cattle. Steer calves 2.00 – 6.00 higher. Heifer calves mostly steady. Demand moderate to good for calves. 7 weight index steers averaged $170-$175 with the 8 weight index steers averaging $172-$173.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/19/2022 – Final
This Week: 4,507 Last Week: 5,164 Last Year: 2,638
Compared to last week: Steers mostly steady. Heifers 5.00-7.00 lower. Demand good. Quality plain, few attractive. 7 weight index steers averaged $168-$175.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/19/2022 – Final
This Week: 1,798 Last Week: 3,131 Last Year: 2,056
Compared to last week: Lighter offering this week compared to last week making for limited price comparisons on both steers and heifers. Lighter weight under 500 lbs steers and heifers sold with higher undertones. 7 weight index steers averaging $202-$208 and 8 weights averaged $171.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/19/2022 – Final
This Week: 5,125 Last Week: 7,416 Last Year: 4,412
Compared to last week feeder steers traded steady to 3.00 higher. Feeder heifers under 500 lbs. traded 2.00-6.00 lower with heavier weights trading steady. Supply and demand was moderate.7 weight index steers averaging $182-$186 and the 8 weight index steers averaging $177.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/20/2022 – Final
This Week: 1,731 Last Week: 3,074 Last Year: 2,611
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves traded steady to 4.00 lower. A comparable package of 8 weight yearling steers traded 3.00 higher. 8 weight index steers averaging $173.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 128,000 head, matching last week and up 6,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 485,000 head, up 9,000 compared to the week previous and up 22,000 compared to a year ago. Monday’s slaughter though was again revised lower, down 6,000 head to 478,000 head.
Boxed beef cutout values lower for Tuesday lower on Choice and higher on Select on good demand with 145 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__251.64 -.81
Select Cutout__227.23 +1.34
CME Feeder Cattle Index__178.20 +.28
CME Lean Hog Index__98.36 -.06
Pork Carcass Cutout __105.18 -.70
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__97.17 +5.01, 15,460 head
October live cattle hit a new recent high again on Tuesday at $146.77 with the contract high at $147.50 and support down at $144. September feeders now holding a month long lower trend with a new recent low last Friday at $178.30, very near the support levels from July, resistance up around $182. October lean hogs back to a higher recent trend with support at $92 and testing resistance at $97.50.
Wheat futures continue to be at the mercy of Russia/Ukraine and the past few days the most volatile and moving all the grains. Monday’s pressure stemming from increased Russian wheat production estimates, along with increasing movement of Ukraine exports through the Black Sea. Tuesday, wheat gained back all that was lost and then some for new recent highs as reports were coming out that Russia intends to annex around 15% of Ukraine’s territory, similar event took place in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea. This area would then become recognized by Russia as their own territory which not only escalates the already high tensions but according to Russia would justify the use of all forces for self-defense. Russian parliament also rushed through a bill carrying stricter punishment for desertion and refusal to fight in the time of martial law signaling that Russia is getting even closer to full military mobilization instead of what has been termed by them since the invasion of Ukraine as only a “special military operation”. Corn and beans were followers yesterday with the nearby December corn again looking to test the $7 resistance area but harvest should make some huge advances this week with the recent hot, hopefully a seasonal break from that locally, but also dry weather. Meal also helping the soy complex as we hit new contract highs on the nearby October contract for the second time this month.
Grains mixed overnight with wheat finishing 1 to 7 higher, soybeans 4 lower and corn 1 lower.
Russian President Putin released a prerecorded message overnight calling up reservists but what most call is only a partial mobilization and yet again threatens nuclear war. Beyond that, news was fairly quiet overnight. The FED announcement due out later day as most expect at least at 0.75% and much attention will be focused on their comments on suppressing inflation.
Excessive heat still lingering the next couple days in OK, TX, AR and LA but much more seasonal temps for the rest of us with a slight chance of rain across KS to end the week. The 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps for the western half of the U.S. with below normal east and below normal moisture for all except in the Southeast. Brazil’s forecast showing plenty of rain while Argentina only light and scattered chances.
December corn holding a higher trend since late July with resistance at the $7 level, new recent high last week at $6.99 ½, and support around $6.50. November soybeans continue to chop sideways to higher, also hitting a new recent high last week at $15.08 ¾ with support at $14.38. December KC Wheat a new recent high overnight at $9.82 with resistance at $10.10 and support around $9.00. December Chicago wheat the leader higher recently, also a new recent high overnight at $9.19 ½ with resistance at $9.54 and support at $8.19. December MPLS wheat following the winter wheats and finally breaking the 2-month long range bound trading with a new recent high overnight at $9.75, resistance up around $10.50 and support at $9.16. October soybean meal a new contract high yesterday at $453.60, resistance at $473 and support at $428.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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