Date: May 2nd, 2022
Livestock futures again mostly lower on Friday and week over week sharply lower. Lean hogs triple digits lower 3 out of the 5 days last week. All the charts look ugly as both cattle contracts and lean hogs ended the week hitting new recent lows. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was again reported early in the week and I had hoped would provide some support. Trade in the South was steady at mostly $140 live along with trade in the North from $144 to $146 live and mostly $232 dressed. The top end trades though were not as high as the previous week and some delivery slated for mid to last half May.
For the week, Friday April 22nd through Friday April 29th, April Live Cattle -$.55, June -$5.77, April Feeder Cattle -$2.02, May -$7.52, August -$8.62, June Lean Hogs -$12.40, July -$10.00. Boxed Beef, Choice -$7.13 @ $260.78, Select -$6.80 @ $247.97, Pork Carcass Cutout -$6.70 @ $104.58.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/24/2022 – 4/30/2022
Current Week: 28,643 Last Report 4/18/22: 23,436 Last Year: 23,039
Compared to last week: Feeder steers mostly 2.00-3.00 lower. Feeder heifers steady to 3.00 lower. Demand moderate. Cattle futures fell this week after a bearish Cattle on Feed Report. Grain prices were not a friend to the feeder as Corn futures traded higher most all week. Steer calves sold 1.00-3.00 higher, except 3 weights 5.00 lower. Heifer calves steady to 2.00 lower, except 3 weights 2.00-3.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 118,000 head and Saturday 40,000 head. For the week, 656,000 head, down 9,000 from the week previous but up 3,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 545 million pounds with the year to date difference up slightly to +0.8% vs. last year and year to date slaughter +0.5%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 460,000 head and Saturday 40,000 head. For the week, 2,403,000 head, up 29,000 compared to the week previous but down 39,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 525.2 million pounds with year to date pork production improving to -5.5% compared to a year ago and hog slaughter -5.7%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday lower on moderate to good demand with 127 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__260.78 -1.82
Select Cutout__247.97 -3.09
CME Feeder Cattle Index__155.64 -.72
CME Lean Hog Index__101.77 -.04
Pork Carcass Cutout __104.58 +.09
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__100.14 -2.43, only 4,367 head
June live cattle now the front month carrying a steep discount to cash. Friday’s low tested the spike low from earlier in April at $132.47 with support next down at the March low at $130.97 and resistance up around $137. May feeders into new lows on Friday at $156.22 with the contract low from last May down at $153 and resistance up at $161 then $165. June lean hogs a new 3-month low on Friday with support next at $104.25 and resistance up at $115.
Not much new news for the grains beyond some better precipitation chances for the Plains which sent wheat futures crashing lower on Friday. The cool and wet forecast though still showing for the Corn Belt which is most certainly making the markets nervous as we no enter May and well behind normal planting pace. Weather in central Brazil still forecasted below normal precipitation and above normal temps which is supportive to the fall crops as well.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed fund money through the trade week ending 4/26 as mostly sellers across the grains. Corn -18.4k (net long 360.6k), -289 Chicago wheat (net long 14.1k), -4.4k KC wheat (net long 45.4k), -6.2k beans (net long 173.4k).
For the week, Friday April 22nd through Friday April 29th, May Corn +$.25 ¼, July +$.24 ½, December +$.26 ¾, May Soybeans -$.07 ¾, July -$.03 ¼, November +$.09 ½, May KC Wheat -$.48 ½, July -$.43 ¾, May Chicago Wheat -$.21 ¾, July -$.19 ½, May MPLS Wheat +$.01, September +$.02, May Soybean Meal -$18.30, October -$13.20.
Grains lower overnight along with energies as crude is trading $3+ lower on reduced Chinese manufacturing due to recent COVID lockdowns. The lockdowns are getting tighter in Beijing now as well. Corn finished the overnight 8 lower, soybeans 6 to 13 lower and wheat 2 to 11 lower.
This week’s weather calling for another round of severe weather and possibly heavy rain from central KS and OK into IA and MO. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps in th PNW with above normal through the middle of the country and above normal moisture from the PNW through the Northern Plains and down into the WCB.
May grain contracts now in delivery. July corn a new contract high last Friday at $8.24 ½ but a gap lower move overnight with support at $7.80. The December contract also hit another new contract high on Friday at $7.57 with support at $7.31 then $7.14 ½. July soybeans chopping sideways the past couple months with support at $16.50 and resistance at $17.05 then $17.34. The November contract still holding a long term higher trend with support at $14.78 and resistance around $15.40. July KC Wheat very choppy the past couple months with support at $10.70 and resistance at $12. July Chicago wheat trading a $2 range since mid-March with nearby support at $10.20 and resistance at $11.07. July MPLS wheat holding a higher trend with a new contract high last Thursday at $12.06 and support at $11.47. July Soybean Meal into new 3-month lows overnight at $426 with support down around $386 and resistance at $450.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336