Date: July 20th, 2022
Feeders were the leader higher yesterday with a gap higher open and strong $2+ gains. Now some of this was of course due to corn under pressure, but it does open the door for a test of last week’s highs. Live cattle and lean hogs held small gains on Tuesday with both beef and pork prices higher. Some cash fed cattle developing on Tuesday in TX and $136 live, $1 lower than last week.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/18/2022 – Final
This Week: 12,107 Last Week: 9,481 Last Year: 7,184
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 4.00 – 7.00 lower. Feeder heifers unevenly steady. Steer and heifer calves 3.00 – 6.00 lower. Demand moderate to good. Quality mostly average. 7 weight index steers averaging $169-$171 and 8 weights averaging $158-$163.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/18/2022 – Final
This Week: 1,749 Last Week: 3,172 Last Year: 1,047
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers 2.00 to 5.00 lower. Steers weighing 650 lbs – 700 lbs sold with much lower undertones, heifers weighing 650 lbs to 750 lbs sold with higher undertones this week. 7 weight index steers averaging $181 and 8 weights averaging $156-$166.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/18/2022 – Final
This Week: 9,551 Last Week: 12,031 Last Year: 4,211
Compared to last week feeder steers traded steady to 4.00 higher with feeder heifers trading steady to 3.00 higher. Supply was heavy with good demand. 7 weight index steers averaging $171-$181 and 8 weights averaging $165-$167.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/19/2022 – Final
This Week: 2,008 Last Week: 2,807 Last Year: 1,289
Compared to last week, steers traded mostly 3.00-7.00 lower following last week’s sharply higher market while heifers sold mostly steady. Demand was good for several loads of yearling steers and heifers on offer. The hot, dry weather gives fewer grazing options for the calves and the heat had buyers more cautious but demand remained moderate to good.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/19/2022 – Final
This Week: 3,650 Last Week: 5,132 Last Year: 3,110
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves traded steady to 4.00 lower with spots 6.00 lower. Yearling feeder steers traded 4.00 higher while yearling heifers were not well tested.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 125,000 head, down 1,000 from last week but up 8,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 460,000 head, up 9,000 compared to a week ago but down 8,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on moderate to good demand with 133 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__272.57 +2.02
Select Cutout__243.73 +1.07
CME Feeder Cattle Index__172.50 -.17
CME Lean Hog Index__115.91 +1.02
Pork Carcass Cutout __125.12 +3.16
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__120.50 +8.03, 12,030 head
Cattle on Feed report coming this Friday afternoon with the market looking for a friendly report. The average trade estimate for cattle on feed as of July 1st right at 100% vs. a year ago with the range of private estimates from 98.9% to 100.8%. June placements average estimate down to 94.7% and June marketings up to 102%.
August live cattle tested resistance up at $137.40 last week with the next at $138 and nearby support at the 20-day moving average at $134.50 with the next down around $133. August feeders breaking nearby resistance and trading above $180 last week for the first time since March with resistance next up at $182 and support at $175.20. August lean hogs breaking higher out of the recent range bound trading with resistance next up around $114 and support at $106.50.
Fall crops led the way lower as wheat tried to hold steady throughout the day. Outside markets were even supportive with the US$ lower and energies higher. Corn conditions were left unchanged nationwide, soybeans a point worse while spring wheat a point better. This lack of continued deteriorating crop conditions nationwide along with the Euro weather model adding some moisture and easing off the heat next week provided the pressure. There is some rain expected over the next 7 days but primarily for the Northern and Eastern Corn Belt. The afternoon runs on the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from the NWS though still calling for above normal temps but adding some moisture from the Southwest to the Midwest in the 6-10 day and on the 8-14 day map, above normal moisture still centered on the Eastern Corn Belt. There is also record heat this week and drought getting worse across much of Europe. Expect to continue to see volatile prices swings in the grains and oilseeds over these next couple months.
Egypt’s tender for North American, South American or Australian wheat was posted then cancelled due to higher than expected prices then reposted late yesterday afternoon opening up for any origin to offer.
The so called “safe passage” for Ukraine to begin shipping again through the Black Sea still getting a lot of attention as officials from Russia and Ukraine met in Turkey this week. There has still been no agreement and I find this somewhat mute news as Ukraine is down to one of their last major ports in Odessa as Russia continues to bomb and advance troops in that direction.
Grains mixed in the overnight trade with wheat the leader higher and soybeans the leader lower. Outside markets a little bearish with equites pointing lower, crude down $1+ and the US$ higher. Corn finished the overnight 1 to 3 lower, soybeans 14 to 17 lower and wheat 14 to 24 higher. Export chatter fairly loud this morning about China buying quite a few new crop soybean U.S. soybean cargoes. USDA did confirm a private sale of 136,000 MT or 5 MBU of new crop soybeans sold to China.
The excessive heat continues into the weekend. Yesterday, the Oklahoma mesonet reportedly that for the first time in history, dating back to mid-90’s, all 120 sites across the state registered 103 or higher. Prior to this, only 2 days had all sites registered 100 or higher back in July 2011. The updated 5-7 day accumulated precip forecast starting to show some chances for scattered light rains early next week for all major growing areas except KS, MO and OK.
September corn has support down at $5.82, the low from July 6th, and resistance around $6.40 then $6.67 which was a week ago Monday’s high. The December contract traded from a high of $6.58 ½ down to $5.76 ¾ last week. August soybeans holding over a month long lower trend with support down at $14.44 ¾ and resistance at $15.52 ¾. November soybeans with support at $13.15 ¾ and resistance at $13.90 then $14.38 ½. September KC Wheat down to a new 5-month low last Friday at $8.20 with resistance right around the $10 level. September Chicago wheat also a new 5-month low at $7.65 ¾ with resistance around $9.50. September MPLS wheat has support around $8.90 and resistance at $10.50.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
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