Date: September 13th, 2021
Livestock futures continued lower last week with product prices lower and new recent lows for futures triggering more technical selling. Cash fed cattle trade in the South started at $124 midweek but was followed up by more volume at $123 on Thursday. This should be about even with the week’s previous weighted average. In the North, $124 to $127 live and $198 to $203 dressed, $5 lower to $2 higher than the previous week’s weighted average price.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/5/2021 – 9/11/2021
Total Receipts Current Week: 14,358 Previous Week: 26,638 Last Year: 10,537
Compared to last week: Numbers lightly tested as some sales closed (Oklahoma City, OKC West Cow sale, and Tulsa) for the Labor Day Holiday. Feeder steers and steer calves 3.00-5.00 lower. Feeder heifers unevenly steady. Heifer calves 3.00-6.00 lower. Demand moderate as cattle futures continued to decline much of the week.
For the week, Friday September 3rd through Friday September 10th, October Live Cattle -$1.37, December -$2.70, September Feeder Cattle -$4.22, October -$4.75, October Lean Hogs -$7.12, December -$6.00. Boxed Beef, Choice -$9.20 @ $327.22, Select -$10.76 @ $293.37, Pork Carcass Cutout -$3.05 @ $105.10.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 121,000 head and Saturday at 91,000. For the holiday shortened week, 577,000 head, down 47,000 from the week previous and down 4,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 473.2 million pounds compared to 511.4 million the week previous and 488.0 million last year. Year to date beef production +3.5% compared to last year and slaughter +3.8%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 477,000 head and Saturday at 370,000. For the week, 2,274,000 head, down 117,000 compared to the week previous and down 64,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 474.4 million pounds compared to 499.6 the week previous and 494.9 million last year. Year to date pork production -1.7% compared to a year ago with slaughter also -1.7%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday continued lower on strong demand with 141 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__327.22 -5.36
Select Cutout__293.37 -3.08
CME Feeder Cattle Index__155.00 -1.83
CME Lean Hog Index__97.73 -.23
Pork Carcass Cutout__105.10 -3.60
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__85.86 -.56
JBS Grand Island, NE slaughter plant reported a massive fire in the rendering plant late Sunday night. Slaughter and processing down today and at this time is unknown when production will be able to start back up. Daily capacity is reported at 6,000 head per day.
October live cattle down nearly $10 in the past few weeks from the contract high but finding and holding support last week at $123. Futures are very oversold and due for a bounce higher with nearby resistance up at $128. September feeders down over $16 during the same time period and also after making a new contract high. The June gap was filled last Friday with support next from $150 to $149 and resistance up around $162. October lean hogs still chopping sideways in a $15 range over the past couple months, now in the bottom half of that range with support at $81 and nearby resistance around $89.
Over in the grains, the big news to end the week came from the USDA monthly supply and demand report. Overall it was bearish yet soybeans reversed higher and pulled corn with it. Fall crop yields, production and ending stocks were increased vs. a month ago and both corn and soybean estimates were higher than the average trade estimates. Wheat ending stocks were decreased slightly. World stocks both for old crop and new crop also raised significantly. The grain markets were oversold though holding lower trends the past couple weeks and overdue for a bounce. Now the market will focus on harvest reports and yields coming in across the nation as we all know it was a very sporadic weather year.
For the week, Friday September 3rd through Friday September 10th, December Corn -$.06 ½, March -$.06 ¾, November Soybeans -$.05 ½, January -$.06 ½, December KC Wheat -$.40 ½, March -$.40 ¼, December Chicago Wheat -$.37 ¾, March -$.38 ½, December MPLS Wheat -$.33 ¾, March -$.32 ½, October Soybean Meal +$1.40/T, December +$1.50/T.
Overnight, grains traded both sides of unchanged, opening higher but closer lower. Corn and soybeans both reversed higher on Friday and holding that will be key this week to sustain a rally or at least stave off more selling. Corn finished the overnight 6 lower, soybeans 5 to 7 lower and wheat 5 to 11 lower.
Export inspections out later this morning, still no shipments out of the NOLA Gulf though. USDA will update crop progress and conditions later this afternoon as harvest picks up the pace nationwide.
Demand continues to build with USDA announcing a private sale this morning of 132,000 MT or 4.85 MBU of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations.
Only light rains from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes over the weekend. This week will feature above normal temps early with rains in the forecast across the Corn Belt midweek and Tropical Storm Nicholas expected to dump heavy rain in the Gulf States. The 6-10 day outlook showing still holding above normal temps for all except the PNW with below normal moisture from the Southwest up into the Northern Plains and WCB and above normal moisture in the PNW and Southeast.
December corn into a new 5-month low on Friday at $4.97 ½ but reversing higher falling short of nearby resistance at $5.28. November soybeans also hitting a new recent low at $12.62 ¾ with support next from $12.60 to $12.40 and resistance at $13.05 then around $13.30. December KC wheat hitting a new 2-month low on Friday at $6.70 ¼ with support next around $6.50 and resistance around $7.30. December Chicago wheat a new recent low at $6.77 with support at $6.75 and resistance at $7.25. December MPLS wheat breaking nearby support last week but holding the next around $8.60 and resistance around the $9 level.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700
