Date: June 3rd, 2020
Livestock futures were under pressure as slaughter plants are still not quite back up to capacity and cash feedlot trade has begun for the week at steady to lower money. Southern Plains trade reported at $118 live while trade in NE reported at $118 live and from $178 to $187 on a dressed basis. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held later today with 1,736 head consigned compared to last week’s 1,164 head of which none sold. Beef and pork prices continue to be under pressure as well since peaking back in May. The past 2 trading sessions with lower moves is threatening the uptrend for both fats and feeders that has been in place since mid-April. Lean hog futures continue to hold a lower trend going back to early May.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/1/2020
Total Receipts: 10,295 Last Year: 6,909
No sale last week due to the Memorial Day Holiday, compared to two weeks ago, steers under 500 lbs and heifers under 550 lbs steady to 5.00 higher, steer over 500 lbs steady to 2.00 higher, heifers over 550 lbs steady to 3.00 higher. Demand moderate to good, supply heavy.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/1/2020
Total Receipts: 15,712 5/18/20: 9,315 Last Year: 10,212
Compared to two weeks ago: Feeder steers and heifers steady to 3.00 higher. Steer calves steady to 4.00 lower. Heifer calves unevenly steady. Demand moderate. Quality plain to average, end attractive.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/1/2020
Total Receipts: 3,686 5/18/20: 2,556 Last Year: 2,357
Compared to two weeks ago: Steers 2.00-4.00 lower. Heifers 4.00-6.00 lower. Demand good. Quality good. Slaughter cows 3.00-5.00 higher. Slaughter bulls 2.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 113,000 head, up 7,000 from last week but down 5,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday at 417,000 head, up 12,000 compared to last week but down 61,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values continue sharply lower with 127 loads sold yesterday.
Choice Cutout__318.73 -22.42
Select Cutout__290.58 -26.25
CME Feeder Index__128.25 -.71
CME Lean Hog Index__59.23 -.73
Pork Carcass Cutout__74.37 -6.67
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__no price reported due to confidentiality
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__34.60 +.74
Equities higher overnight around the world, the US$ lower for the 7th consecutive day and energies lower as the OPEC+ meeting to extend the cuts in production may now be jeopardy. June live cattle up to a new recent high last week at $101.60 with resistance next around $106. Yesterday’s limit lower move though pushed through the nearby support with the next around $93 then a gap on the chart from $91.62 to $89.47. August feeders holding a higher trend with support at $132.60 then around $129.00 and resistance at $136.70 then $138.80. June lean hogs holding a lower trend now for over a month with support next around $50 and resistance up at $57.
Soybeans the leader as a day after rumors were spiraling that China’s anger was leading to instructions to their state run Ag companies not to buy U.S. farm products, China purchased 4.85 MBU of new crop U.S. soybeans. Crude oil held onto to small gains along with the US$ down into new 2-month lows helping to support both soybean and corn futures yesterday. The crop progress and conditions report was bearish as corn planting as caught up in most areas and conditions improved a sharp 4% to 74% now rated in the good to excellent categories. Wheat was under pressure again as forecasts are improving in Europe and Russia and Egypt snagged 2 cargoes of wheat from Ukraine at $31/MT or $.84/BU cheaper than their last purchased in mid-April. No U.S. wheat was offered this round meaning we are probably still some $10/MT premium or nearly $.30/BU overpriced. Weather looks to be hot and dry for the near term in the Southern Plains helping to push the wheat crop maturity as harvest gets going in OK this week.
Taiwan purchased a cargo of optional origin corn overnight. USDA announced this morning a private sale of 186,000 MT or 6.8 MBU of soybeans for unknown destinations of which 2.4 MBU is old crop and 4.4 MBU for new crop. Some reports early were saying China which of course it very well may be, either way it’s more soybeans out the door and 11.7 MBU of additional export sales announced in the past 2 days.
Much above normal temps in the forecast from the Mountain West into the Southern Plains along with heavy rains from the Southeast up into the ECB through early next week. The 6-10 day outlook showing normal to above normal temps from the Southern Plains to the East Coast with below normal temps forecasted for the Mountain West and above normal precipitation in the Southeast, Midwest and Northern Border States with below normal for the Southwest and Southern Plains.
July corn still holding steady to higher over this past month and a half. The contract low is down at $3.09, nearby support around $3.16 with resistance up at $3.30. July soybeans still in a choppy 30 cent range yet showing a slow uptrend like corn since hitting its contract low at $8.18 ½ back on April 21st. Nearby support around $8.30 and resistance up around $8.60. July KC wheat finding support around $4.40 with resistance at $4.90. July Chicago wheat held support around $4.94 which matched the lows from mid-March with resistance up around $5.30.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700