Date: October 25th, 2021
Cattle futures hit hard on Friday, especially the deferred months, as hogs held near steady as most of the damage was already done earlier in the week. Cash feedlot trade last week, again with most of volume traded midweek, in KS and TX at $124 live and in NE at $196 dressed, steady with week previous and since late August. Live trade in NE a bit firmer than the week previous at $124 up to $126.50 live and IA up to $127. Cattle liquidation continues as indicated by the September Livestock Slaughter report by USDA last Thursday. Total cow slaughter for September is up 7% from a year ago and heifer slaughter up 4%. This is also the 7th month in a row for beef cow slaughter higher than a year ago.
After the close, the October Cattle on Feed report was friendly with placements down 3% vs. a year ago and expectations were for a 1% to 2% higher number. Placements in September totaled 2.16 million head with every weight range lower than a year ago except 600-699 lbs matching last year. October 1st on feed totaled 11.6 million head, slightly less than expectations at 98.6% vs. last year but the second highest October 1st inventory since the series began in 1996. Marketings for September totaled 1.79 million head and were in line with expectations at 97%.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/17/2021 – 10/23/2021
Total Receipts Current Week: 31,439 Previous Week: 27,591 Last Year: 28,846
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and steer calves steady to 4.00 higher. Feeder heifers and heifer calves 1.00-5.00 higher. Demand good for feeder cattle despite cattle futures taking on Bearish tendencies. Somewhat lighter numbers of feeders being offered is helping to fuel that demand. Demand good for long weaned calves as recent rains has improved recently sowed wheat. Demand for un-weaned calves is light as big swings in temperatures proves tough on the health of these calves.
Public Auction Yards Livestock Cattle Auction – Billings, MT (Fri)
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/22/2021
This Week: 5,656 Last Week: 3,570 Last Year: 2,017
Compared to last Friday: All yearlings were scarcely tested thus no trend is available. Steer calves under 550 lbs sold mostly sharply lower, however instances of steady were seen on very attractive calves. Steer calves over 550 lbs sold sold steady to weak as packer demand for these offerings was very good. Heifer calves under 600 lbs sold mostly 3.00-8.00 lower. Heifers over 600 lbs were too lightly tested to develop an accurate market trend, however steady to weak undertones were noticed.
Ft. Pierre Livestock Auction (Friday) – Ft. Pierre, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/22/2021
This Week: 7,692 Last Week: 4,129 Last Year: 5,196
Compared to last Friday’s sale: steer calves from 400# to 649# were mostly $2.00 to $4.00 lower with instances of $6.00 lower, Heifer calves from 450# to 599# were generally steady to $4.00 lower. No other comparisons were available.
For the week, Friday October 15th through Friday October 22nd, October Live Cattle -$1.87, December -$2.65, October Feeder Cattle -$2.15, November -$4.52, December Lean Hogs -$4.95, February -$4.70. Boxed Beef, Choice +$1.58 @ $281.82, Select +$2.49 @ $263.11, Pork Carcass Cutout -$3.05 @ $98.27.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 112,000 head and Saturday at 67,000. For the week, 661,000 head, up 15,000 from the week previous and up 16,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 548.9 million pounds compared to 535.1 million the week previous and 543.3 million last year. Year to date beef production +2.8% compared to last year and slaughter +3.1%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 476,000 head and Saturday at 229,000. For the week, 2,606,000 head, down 70,000 compared to the week previous and down 19,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 553.1 million pounds compared to 554.5 the week previous and 580.4 million last year. Year to date pork production -2.0% compared to a year ago and hog slaughter remains -1.9%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher but weak demand with only 91 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__281.82 +1.16
Select Cutout__263.11 +.39
CME Feeder Cattle Index__155.34 +.23
CME Lean Hog Index__83.70 -1.13
Pork Carcass Cutout__98.27 -.01
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__65.63 +.20
October live cattle range bound from $126 to $124 the past couple weeks and expiring later this week. The highest volume December contract recent range from $131 resistance to support at $128 with the next down at recent low from October 1st at $125. October feeders hit resistance just above $160 earlier this month and holding a lower trend since with support at $155 then last month’s low at $151.92. The November contract has resistance up around $162 with support also at $155 then $152. December lean hogs filling the gap and into a new recent low at $72.87 with support at last month’s low down at $71.27 and nearby resistance at $80.
Grains were choppy last week but mostly higher as the fall crops held a higher trend following the latest USDA crop report low and wheat sharply higher as both KC and MPLS wheat hit new contract highs. Wheat led the charge higher on Friday with the nearby December MPLS above the $10 mark and the 10th new contract high this month. Wet weather coming back for the Corn Belt this week which will delay fall harvest as most locally are wrapped up or near complete. Nationwide we should be around 75% done with soybean harvest and near 70% complete with corn harvest when USDA’s updates crop progress later this afternoon.
For the week, Friday October 15th through Friday October 22nd, December Corn +$.12 ¼, March +$.12 ½, November Soybeans +$.02 ¾, January +$.04 ½, December KC Wheat +$.30 ¼, March +$.25 ¾, December Chicago Wheat +$.22, March +$.21, December MPLS Wheat +$.44 ¼, March +$.31 ¼, December Soybean Meal +$10.80/T, December Soybean Oil +.08 cents/lb.
Grains firm overnight with crude oil into new contract highs above $85. Corn finished the overnight 1 higher, soybeans 10 higher and wheat 5 to 10 higher.
Heavy rains over the weekend across the Corn Belt with more expected in the Plains and Southeast over the next few days. The 6-10 day outlook now only showing above normal temps in the Southwest and West Coast and below normal in the Southeast with below normal moisture now across most of the country, above normal only in the Northeast.
December corn into a new recent high overnight with resistance at $5.48 and support at $5.30. November soybeans holding a lower trend since the early June highs with new 6-month lows earlier this month at $11.84 ½ and resistance at $12.50. December KC wheat into a new contract high overnight at $7.81 ¾ with support at $7.40. December Chicago wheat a new 2-month high at $7.67 overnight, the contract high at $7.86 ½ and support at $7.35. December MPLS wheat another new contract high overnight at $10.23 ¼ and support at $9.30. The next upside target is $10.35, the spot high from July 2012. December Soybean Meal bouncing off the new 12-month low at $309.3 on October 13th back to test the 1st of the month high with resistance next up at $345.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700