Date: September 30th, 2020
Turnaround Tuesday with cattle futures higher, lean hogs and grains lower. Fundamental news hasn’t changed on the livestock side. There are still plenty of bearish items to pressure cattle but if cash feedlot trade can continue to gain, the next few weeks could build some positive momentum. Hogs continue to be supported by expanding demand and potential for more into Southeast Asia and specifically China.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/28/2020
Total Receipts: 6,125 Last Week: 5,679 Last Year: 5,254
Compared to last week, steers under 750 lbs 3.00 to 6.00 lower, heifers under 700 lbs 4.00 to 7.00 lower, steers over 750 lbs and heifers over 700 lbs steady. Demand and supply moderate
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/28/2020
Total Receipts: 5,767 Last Week: 5,559 Last Year: 6,664
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 2.00-3.00 higher. Feeder heifers steady to 1.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves were too light on comparable offerings for a trend but a lower undertone was noted. Demand moderate. Quality plain to average, few attractive.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/27/2020
Total Receipts: 3,116 Last Week: 3,752 Last Year: 3,274
Compared to last week: Steers mostly steady, to 3.00 higher. Heifers 4.00 higher. Quality good. Demand good. Slaughter cows 2.00 lower. Slaughter bulls had too few receipts to establish a trend however, a slightly lower undertone is noted.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 118,000 head, down 2,000 from last week but up 2,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 489,000 head, up 11,000 compared to last week and up 4,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values lower on Choice and higher on Select with 134 loads sold on Tuesday.
Choice Cutout__217.16 -.56
Select Cutout__206.99 +.57
CME Feeder Index__142.36 -.25
CME Lean Hog Index__75.91 +.49
Pork Carcass Cutout__91.75 -1.64
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__64.95 +.56
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__64.08 -.02
October live cattle gapped higher yesterday building on the month long higher trend. Nearby resistance is now at $111 which is the recent high from August with support at $106 then $103.50. October feeders still choppy but holding the long term higher trend. Resistance is at $144 then around $150 and support at $139. October lean hogs continue to make new recent highs adding around $25 since the first of August with resistance next around $75 and support at $64.
Over in the grains, harvest pressure continues as well as some long liquidation as export sales have tempered here recently. China is on holiday through October 8th so there is not an expectation to see many sales announced. Crude also fell over a $1/barrel yesterday.
Grains were mixed overnight with corn and soybeans finishing 1 to 3 lower while wheat was 5 to 7 higher.
USDA announced private sales this morning of 215,000 MT or 7.9 MBU of soybeans sold for unknown destinations.
Ukraine announced wheat acres will be reduced this year from 6.7 to 6.1 million hectares. Drought persists in Ukraine with only 25% of the winter wheat crop planted when typically they would be closer to 75% complete.
End of month/quarter along with the USDA quarterly stocks and small grain reports will be released at 11 am today. The fall crops stocks will be the ending stocks for last year’s crop and beginning stocks for this marketing year. The average trade estimate for soybean stocks is 575 MBU compared to stocks one year ago at 909 MBU. The average trade estimate for corn stocks is 2.25 BBU compared to 2.221 BBU a year ago. Both match the ending stocks estimates from USDA earlier this month. US wheat stocks are estimated to be 2.24 BBU compared to 2.346 BBU last year and all wheat production in essence unchanged at 1.84 BBU.
US weather still looking great for fall harvest with 6-10 day outlook showing normal to above normal temps with below normal moisture.
December corn trending lower since hitting a new 6-month high on September 18th at $3.79 ¼ with nearby support at $3.60. November soybeans new contract high on September 18th at $10.46 ¾ with support at $9.75. December KC wheat trying to hold the higher trend since early August with support at $4.63. December Chicago wheat very choppy but also a higher trend going back to late June with support at $5.33 and resistance at $5.78.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700