Date: July 25th, 2022
Livestock futures were mostly triple digits higher on Friday and for the week. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade last week though mostly steady to $1 lower with TX and KS live trade from $135 to $136 and NE from $139 to $143.50 live and $225 to $228 dressed. The markets were feverishly awaiting multiple reports from USDA on Friday.
The cattle inventory report was bullish as all cattle and calves on July 1 totaled 98.8 million head, 2% below a year ago and the fewest number of beef cows since 2014. The Cattle on feed report was friendly, just not as much as expected with placements in June at 1.63 million head, 98% vs. last year with expectations of only 94-95%. Total on feed at 11.3 million was just slightly above a year ago and marketings of 2.06 million head were 102% vs. last year, both right at expectations. Cold storage was the final report with total red meat supplies in freezers down 1% from the previous month but up 24% percent from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were down 2% from the previous month but up 29% from last year. Frozen pork supplies were down 1% from the previous month but up 22% from last year. Total frozen poultry supplies on June 30, 2022 were up 5% from the previous month and up 4% from a year ago.
For the week, Friday July 15th through Friday July 22nd, August Live Cattle +$2.45, October +$3.45, August Feeder Cattle +$5.20, September +$4.80, August Lean Hogs +$8.87, October +$3.72. Boxed Beef, Choice -$1.79 @ $267.12, Select +$.71 @ $242.50, Pork Carcass Cutout +$3.56 @ $125.74.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/17/22-7/23/22
Current Week: 39,353 Last Report 7/11/22: 40,529 Last Year: 28,027
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers steady to 4.00 lower. Demand moderate to good for feeder cattle. Corn prices continued to fall this past week moving break evens lower and improving the outlook of feeding cattle. Many cattle moving off of grass this week and it seems we are nearing the end of the summer feeder run. Steer calves under 500 lbs 10.00-15.00 lower; Heifer calves under 500 lbs 10.00- 20.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves over 500 lbs. 2.00-6.00 lower. Demand turn light to moderate for calves as summers heat reached record levels this past week and many areas of the state reaching upwards of 110 degrees. Some luck few saw some rain, however the whole state is in some stage of drought. This drought has also created a big movement of cows to market with another week of large cow runs.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 665,000 head, down 9,000 from the week previous but up 10,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 538.8 million pounds with year to date beef production still up 1.0% and cattle slaughter 1.1% ahead of last year.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,285,000 head, up 30,000 compared to the week previous but down 40,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 486.0 million pounds with year to date pork production now down 3.1% compared to a year ago and slaughter down 3.8%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday lower on Choice but higher on Select on moderate to weak demand with 95 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__267.12 -.64
Select Cutout__242.50 +1.97
CME Feeder Cattle Index__171.01 +.34
CME Lean Hog Index__118.22 +1.18
Pork Carcass Cutout __125.74 +1.84
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__118.48 -6.23, only 4,266 head
August live cattle hitting a new recent high on Friday at $137.57 with resistance next at $137.95 and support around $135. August feeders also up to a new recent high, actually a new 4-month high, with resistance next up at $182, the contract high at $187.10 and support at $175.50. August lean hogs a new 3-month high on Friday at $118.90 with resistance at $121.25, the contract high at $123.65 and support at $111.
Grains were mixed on Friday and throughout the week but all finished lower week over week. US weather was again the catapult higher to begin the week, but the forecast shifted for this week adding moisture across the Corn Belt and backing off the excessive heat. The big news that has been talked about now for weeks came Friday with Russia and Ukraine signing a 120 day agreement to the clear the way for Ukraine to once again be able to ship out grain and Russia fertilizer freely and safely through the Black Sea. Time will tell if these deal holds together as Russia continued to advance south and east last week. They have promised to not attack cargo ships or the last three remaining ports under Ukraine control as Ukraine will direct vessels around minefields.
For the week, Friday July 15th through Friday July 22nd, September Corn -$.40, December -$.39 ½, August Soybeans -$.31 ½, November -$.26 ½, September KC Wheat -$.17 ¼, December -$.17 ¾, September Chicago Wheat -$.17 ¾, December -$.16 ½, September MPLS Wheat -$.35 ¾, December -$.35 ¼, August Soybean Meal +$.50/T, October -$8.10/T.
Well, the agreement still stands as of this morning but the port of Odessa reportedly was hit by a Russian missile strike over the weekend. It’s also Monday, so like the past two Monday’s, the extending forecast here in the U.S. look hot and dry again. Outside markets also supportive with equites and energies higher and the US$ lower. Corn finished the overnight 13 to 14 higher, soybeans 16 to 18 higher and wheat 20 to 24 higher.
Temps backed off for this week along with scattered rain chances from the Southwest through to the Midwest. The 6-10 day forecast calling for normal to above normal temps across the country with above normal precipitation in the Southwest and Southeast. The 8-14 day outlook though shows above normal temps and below normal precip centered on the Corn Belt.
September corn down to a new recent low on Friday at $5.61 ½ with resistance up around the $6 level. The December contract down to $5.61 ¾ with resistance around $6.25. August soybeans a new recent low on Friday at $14.07 ¾ with resistance at $15.13 ½. November soybeans breaking the $13 level for the first time since January, down to $12.88 ½ with resistance at $13.93. September KC Wheat down to a new 5-month low on Friday at $8.14 ½ with resistance right around the $9 level. September Chicago wheat also a new 5-month low at $7.54 with resistance around $8.40. September MPLS wheat has support holding right around $8.70 and resistance at $9.56. August soybean meal the only one holding a higher trend with support at $430 and resistance at $448.10.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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