Date: October 9th, 2019
Cattle futures were mixed yesterday still looking for direction this week as lean hogs followed up a limit lower day Monday but trading triple digits higher yesterday. Some excitement may have been from the positive news on the trade front as China should be sending additional negotiators than previously expected for the next round of talks. Most are still reporting that China is ready for a partial trade agreement but still not ready for a broad or complete one. Cash feedlot trade fairly quiet so far this week with a few hundred head moving in the North at $170 dressed, steady with a week ago.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/7/2019
Total Receipts: 3,529 Last Week: 5,254 Last Year: 4,494
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold steady to 5.00 higher, with some lightweight weaned calves of good quality and condition trading sharply higher. Discounts for short or unweaned cattle without the desired two rounds of shots are becoming more severe as buyers are on alert for seasonal health issues. Supply light and demand moderate.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/7/2019
Total Receipts: 7,913 Last Week: 6,664 Last Year: 5,431
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 4.00 higher. Feeder heifers 1.00-5.00 higher. Steer calves steady to 4.00 higher. Heifer calves steady to 2.00 higher on 500-600 lbs. with lighter weights not well tested. Demand good with active bidding throughout the sale. Quality average with more calves right off the cow on offer. Days weaned and number of shots becoming critical factors with the volatility in temps arriving. Farmers have planting wheat all but done and more seasonal like weather is in the forecast.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/7/2019
Total Receipts: 2,589 Last Week: 3,274 Last Year: 3,183
Compared to last week: Steers 2.00-4.00 higher. Heifers 3.00-5.00 lower. Quality good. Demand good. Slaughter cows 1.00-3.00 lower, in a light test. Slaughter bulls mostly steady, also in a light test.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 117,000 head, matching last week but down 3,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 489,000 head, down 1,000 compared to last week but up 37,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on moderate demand and light offerings for a total of 125 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__213.60 +2.51
Select Cutout__187.06 +1.15
CME Feeder Index__144.38 -.05
CME Lean Hog Index__59.59 -.37
Pork Carcass Cutout__77.45 -.30
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__N/A, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__52.45 +2.39
National Wtd Avg Live Price__39.99 +.66, Wtd Avg Carcass Base 52.01 +2.28
October live cattle continuing to make new recent highs, yesterday’s at $108.85, now over $15 from the contract low set back in early September. Support is down around $105.50 with resistance up around $110. October feeders choppy this past week after trending higher most of September with support at $140.50 and resistance up at $144.72. October lean hogs expire on the 14th and remain choppy from the recent low down at $59.30 up to the nearby resistance at $65.82. The December contract holding a lower trend since mid-April with the recent low down at $57.77 and resistance up at $69 then $72.70, the recent high.
Over in the grains, it was completely green day with corn and wheat leading the charge higher. Grains were quiet in the overnight and at the open yesterday but quickly rallied a few cents with the blast of cold air and snow getting the markets attention today. There are also rumors that China may be coming in to buy a decent chunk of U.S. corn which is desperately needed for the corn market as export shipments have been weak to start this marketing year. USDA October crop report is coming out Thursday morning with expectations for lower corn and soybean production estimates and lower ending stocks.
Overnight, grains were mostly steady to higher with soybeans the leader. Corn finished 1 higher, soybeans 6 to 8 higher, KC wheat 1 higher, Chicago wheat 1 lower and MPLS wheat 2 higher.
USDA October Crop Report Average Private Estimates
2019 US Corn production at 13.685 BBU vs. 13.799 BBU in September
Yield at 167.5 BPA down from 168.2 BPA and harvested acres down 368,000
2019 US Soybean production at 3.585 BBU vs. 3.633 BBU in September
Yield at 47.3 BPA down from 47.9 BPA and harvested acres down 161,000
US Corn ending stocks at 1.785 BBU vs. 2.190 BBU in September
US Soybean ending stocks at 520 MBU vs. 640 MBU in September
US wheat ending stocks at 1.015 BBU vs. 1.014 BBU in September
World ending stocks of corn at 298.3 MMT vs. 306.27 in September and 329.55 for 2018/2019
World ending stocks of soybeans at 96.5 MMT vs. 99.19 last month and 112.41 for 2018/2019
World ending stocks of wheat at 285.2 MMT vs. 286.5 last month and 277.24 for 2018/2019
Heavy snow still in the nearby forecasts for the Dakotas and our first freeze coming to many areas heading into the weekend. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook still holding below normal temps for the Northern and Western Corn Belt with above normal in the South and below normal precip over the center of the U.S. with above normal for the PNW and Southeast.
December corn hitting a new recent high at $3.97 overnight with support at $3.80 and resistance up around $4.20. November soybeans also into a new recent high overnight at $9.31 ½ with support around $9.10 and resistance up at $9.36 ½, the high back from July then $9.48, the June high. December KC wheat with support at $4.00 and resistance up at $4.20. December Chicago wheat with support at $4.85, testing resistance at $5.02 ¾ then $5.06 ¼. December MPLS wheat with support at $5.21 and resistance up at $5.59. December soybean meal breaking into a new recent high with support at $301 and resistance around $313.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700