Date: June 14th, 2021
Livestock futures mostly higher to finish the week as grains were sharply lower last Friday. Cash feedlot trade done mostly midweek at $119 to $120 live and $190 to $191 dressed, steady now for almost 2 months. Cash hogs screaming higher in the North, +$17.21 in MN/IA week over week as futures were making new contract highs daily. Live cattle are called steady again this week as feeders will continue to get their direction from the corn market.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/5/2021 – 6/12/2021
Current Week: 37,502 Last Week: 10,378 Last Year: 35,149
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 3.00 – 5.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold steady to 2.00 higher. Limited steer and heifer calves traded throughout the state, however few sales were steady – 4.00. Demand for feeder cattle very good. Warmer and more seasonable weather moved across the state this week and is expected to remain through next week. Slaughter cattle prices rose this week with good to excellent demand. Slaughter cows sold 8.00 – 10.00 higher. Slaughter bulls 5.00 to 10.00 higher. Packer demand very good.
For the week, Friday June 4th through Friday June 11h, June Live Cattle +$1.87, August +$1.95, August Feeder Cattle +$1.25, September +$.77, June Lean Hogs +$3.17, July -$.62, June Pork Carcass Cutout +$2.42. Boxed Beef, Choice -$1.42 @ $337.56, Select -$6.52 @ $305.21, Pork Carcass Cutout -$.09 @ $132.54.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 119,000 head and Saturday at 70,000. For the week, 665,000 head, up 127,000 from the week previous and up 20,000 from last year. Beef production last week at 545.7 million pounds compared to 443 million the week previous and 535 million last year. Year to date beef production +6.6% compared to last year with slaughter +5.7%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 457,000 head and Saturday at 53,000. For the week, 2,440,000 head, up 465,000 compared to the week previous but down 24,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 523.4 million pounds compared to 424.4 the week previous and 531.6 million last year. Year to date pork production +2.2% compared to a year ago with slaughter +1.7%.
Boxed beef cutout values Friday lower on light demand with only 78 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__337.56 -.69
Select Cutout__305.21 -5.19
CME Feeder Cattle Index__140.23 +.32
CME Lean Hog Index__120.84 +.93
Pork Carcass Cutout__132.54 -1.51
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__131.98 +7.32
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__119.26 -.46
June live cattle into a new high for the month and taking out nearby resistance on Friday with the next at $119.42 then up around $121 and support at $116. August feeders very volatile with the back and forth grains over the past two months. Nearby resistance at $152 and support down at $145. June lean hogs expire today as they hit yet another new contract high at $122.72 on Friday. The July contract carrying the heaviest volume now with support around $117, the contract high from last week at $123.60 and the next upside target at $133.87, the all-time spot high from July 2014.
Grains pulled back on Friday as rains moved across the WCB. The extended forecasts though still calling for hot and dry across most major growing areas. The monthly USDA crop report was friendly to corn and in line with expectations for wheat but a little bearish for soybeans. Old crop to new crop spreads continue to come in as demand has been rationed for old crop but the markets are still concerned about new crop supply.
For the week, Friday June 4th through Friday June 11th, July Corn +$.01 ¾, December +$.18 ¼, July Soybeans -$.75 ¼, November +$.03 ¼, July KC Wheat +$.01 ½, September +$.02, July Chicago Wheat -$.07, September -$.06 ¾, July MPLS Wheat -$.48, September -$.44 ½, July Soybean Meal -$12.90/T, December +$1.30/T.
All grains sharply lower overnight, led more so by the new crop months than nearby contracts. Nearly half of the Corn Belt received rains over the weekend but little received enough to add beneficial soil moisture and this week’s weather still hot and dry. Corn finished the overnight 24 to 34 lower, soybeans 41 to 53 lower and wheat 22 to 34 lower.
Little new news over the weekend. Weather should be the driving force until USDA updates acreage and quarterly stocks at the end of the month. No daily export sales announced this morning. USDA will release weekly export inspections later this morning and this afternoon crop progress and conditions. Most are looking for a 2 to 3% drop in fall crop ratings.
To repeat, the rain coverage from Friday afternoon to this morning may have been over half of the Corn Belt but eastern NE and KS look to be the only spots with significant amounts and strong winds came with that rain as some corn is down in NE KS. The WCB may see up to an inch this upcoming weekend. The 6-10 day outlook has the above normal temps now only in the western half of the U.S., below normal in the Great Lakes and above normal moisture in the Southeast pushing north into the ECB but below normal still from the Northern Plains to the PNW. The 8-14 day outlook, June 21-27, does show normal temps with above normal moisture across the Corn Belt, but that is a ways out.
July corn hit a new recent high last Thursday at $7.17 ½ with the contract high at $7.35 ¼. Nearby support taken out overnight with the next around $6.50. December corn up to $6.28 ¼ last week, the contract high at $6.38 and support next around $5.60. July soybeans up to $16.23 ½ last Monday, taking out the May low overnight with support next down around $14.50. November soybeans hit a new contract high last Monday at $14.80 with support next around $13.50. July KC wheat with support next at $6.00 and resistance at $6.30. July Chicago wheat with support at $6.50 and resistance around $6.80. July MPLS wheat with support at $7.22 and resistance up around $7.80. July soybean meal into a new 7-month low with support next at $350 and resistance at $388.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700