Date: August 7th, 2019
Meat complex trade that had some incredibly large high to low ranges on Monday didn’t disappoint yesterday either, although the ranges weren’t quite as dramatic. October hogs traded $4.30 from high to low and finished close to $3 lower, along with triple digit lower closes in most of the rest of the hog contracts as well. Live and feeder cattle traded both sides of unchanged after starting the day moderately higher. Fats ended up close to $1 lower and feeder were mixed. Regarding the China news and meat exports, obviously pork stands to lose the most business and the futures action reflected that over the last two sessions. Cattle got good news from US and EU beef export channels being opened up, but that has done nothing to support the cattle market since the release last Friday. Light cash feedlot trade so far this week at $185 dressed in Iowa which is steady with last week’s trade. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held later this morning with 376 head consigned compared to last week’s 475 head of which 133 sold at $111 live.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/5/2019
Total Receipts: 8,254 Last Week: 6,988 Last Year: 6,800
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers 1.00-4.00 lower with exception to 900-1000 lbs. steers 3.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves mostly steady to 3.00 higher. Demand moderate. Quality average to attractive. Consistent, blistering heat impacting pasture conditions and this is encouraging producers to sell.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/5/2019
Total Receipts: 1,748 Last Week: 2,019 Last Year: 2,386
Compared to last week: Steers and Heifers mostly steady to 2.00 higher. Demand good. Quality plain thru good. Slaughter cows mostly steady. Slaughter bulls 2.00-3.00 higher.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/5/2019
Total Receipts: 4,722 Last Week: 4,985 Last Year: 5,708
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves 2.00 to 5.00 lower,except under 500 lbs 5.00 to 8.00 lower. Yearlings steady to 3.00 lower. Demand and supply moderate. Calf orders are not as plentiful as the hot weather has some Buyers sitting on the sidelines.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 118,000 head, up 1,000 compared to last week but down 1,000 compared to last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 477,000 head, up 7,000 compared to a week ago and up 22,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on moderate to good demand and moderate offerings for a total of 122 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__215.78 +1.08
Select Cutout__192.65 +.98
CME Feeder Index__141.61 -.01
CME Lean Hog Index__84.19 -.49
Pork Carcass Cutout__88.73 +.60
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__60.33 -1.38, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__75.58 -.61
National Wtd Avg Live Price__59.64 -1.26, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__75.22 -.79
August live cattle with support down at $105.10 then around $104 with resistance up from $109.20 to $109.60. August feeders choppy this past month with support down around $136 and resistance up at the recent high at $143.90 then at $146. August lean hogs expire next week with a recent test of the contract lows down at $73.95 and resistance up at $81.50. The October contract is holding a lower trend with support near $62 and resistance up around $75.
Big volatility and flip flopping of the trade continued on Tuesday. Corn and soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged, but still closed lower. Wheat started lower and ended lower with the front month Chicago wheat actually down double digits at the finish. Egypt purchased a total of 415,000 MT or 15.3 MBU wheat from Russian, Ukraine and Romania. Export inspections were bearish across the board Monday and there wasn’t anything new to glean from the crop progress and condition ratings. With the news still fresh about China reportedly halting imports of US Ag products, lower was the path of least resistance. There continued to be new sets of acreage and production guesses coming out for Monday’s August crop report, but the estimates are so wide on the acreage category that there isn’t much to trade off those numbers either.
Overnight, grain markets were quiet trading both sides of unchanged. Corn and soybeans both finished mixed to steady with wheat 1 to 2 lower.
USDA announced a private sale of 165,000 MT or 6.1 MBU of new crop soybeans sold for delivery to unknown destinations.
Scattered heavy rains started locally today with more expected over this next week from CO to IN and up into the Dakota’s. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook showing above normal temps south and below normal north with above normal moisture throughout the Plains and Midwest and below normal in the Southwest.
September corn down into a new recent low at $3.87 ¼ last week with support next at $3.77 and resistance up at $4.30. The December contract dipped down to $3.97 ¼ last week with support next down at $3.88 with resistance up at $4.36. September soybeans into a new recent low on Monday at $8.41 ½ with support next down near $8.30 and resistance up around $8.90. The November contract dipped down to $8.54 ½ on Monday with support next down near $8.45 and resistance up near the $9.00 level. September KC wheat holding a lower trend with the contract low down at $3.92 ¾ and resistance up around $4.50. September Chicago wheat on a lower trend with support around $4.70 and resistance up near $5.00. September Soybean Meal trending lower with the contract low down at $286.9, resistance up at $307.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700