Date: April 14th, 2021
Cattle futures under pressure yesterday as lean hogs held steady. Feeders hit the hardest, down $2+ at the close after holding $1 losses for most of the day. New contract highs in corn providing pressure. It also hasn’t helped that after fats rallied sharply for 3 weeks we now face a third consecutive day of losses. Beef prices mixed to lower yesterday. Cash feedlot trade not going yet and likely to be slow as last week was a very large sales volume. Showlists are large again this week and early asking prices higher. Overall the fundamental trend is still higher with grilling season almost here and COVID restrictions easing across most of the country has cases continue to trend lower domestically yet spiking in other countries like Brazil and India.
Winter Livestock – La Junta, CO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/13/2021
This Week: 1,881 Last Week: 5,649 Last Year: 1,721
Compared with last Tuesday: Feeder steers and heifers under 700 lbs in a light test 3.00 to 5.00 lower, over 700 lbs 2.00 to 4.00 lower. Quality and condition not as attractive as a week ago. Slaughter cows and bulls steady to 1.00 higher. Trade activity and demand moderate for feeders, moderate to good for slaughter cows and cow calf pairs.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/12/2021
This Week: 6,257 Last Week: 5,772 Last Year: 3,084
Compared to last week, feeder steers traded steady to 3.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded steady to 5.00 higher, most of the gain was on quality, larger weights.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/12/2021
This Week: 10,546 Last Week: 6,800 Last Year: 3,935
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 1.00 higher, over 900 lbs up to 3.00 higher. Feeder heifers steady to 2.00 higher. Demand good for feeder cattle. Steer calves 1.00-2.00 lower. Heifer calves unevenly steady. Demand moderate for calves.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/12/2021
This Week: 3,123 Last Week: 1,589 Last Year: 800
Compared to last week: Steers 6.00-9.00 higher. Heifers 4.00-6.00 higher. Quality good, several attractive. Demand good. Slaughter cows 2.00-4.00 higher. Slaughter bulls 4.00 higher.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/12/2021
This Week: 3,411 Last Week: 2,551 Last Year: 0
Compared to last week: Feeders steers 3.00 to 5.00 higher, except 700-750 lbs steady to 4.00 lower, 800-850 lbs 2.00 to 3.00 lower, heifers 2.00 to 4.00 higher, except 550-600 lbs 2.00 lower, 700-750 lbs 2.00 to 5.00 lower. Demand for this large offering of attractive cattle was very good. Farmer buyers were very active today. Lighter grass cattle sold with much lower undertones. Flesh conditions were thin fleshed to moderate.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 116,000 head, down 4,000 from last week but up 21,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 476,000 head, down 6,000 compared to last week but up 37,000 compared to a year ago. Remember at this time last year, COVID-19 starting running through slaughter plants and work spacing was just being adjusted.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday lower on Choice and steady to higher on Select on moderate demand with 125 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__270.11 -1.30, only the second lower day, two in a row now though since the sharply higher rally began back in mid-March at 224.77
Select Cutout__266.54 +.38
CME Feeder Cattle Index__143.66 +.30
CME Lean Hog Index__102.38 +.49
Pork Carcass Cutout__112.49 +2.39
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__102.56 +2.02
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__101.55 +1.01
April live cattle $3 off the recent new high from last week at $124.57, still holding a month long higher trend with support at $121 then $118. April feeders tested the $148 resistance last week, now testing the $142 support with the next down at $138.50. Deferred contracts continue to hold long term higher trends, but testing nearby support levels after making new contract highs almost weekly this entire year. Without a quick turnaround this week that may not hold true. April lean hogs expire tomorrow holding a sharply higher trend since mid-January and another new contract on Monday at $104.25. The June contract is carrying the most volume, sharply higher since mid-December and hit the technical target of $110 on Monday, the highest prices seen since 2014. Support on the June contract at $104.37, the current 20-day moving average, then $103.72 with a gap from there down to $103.55 back in March.
Grains rebounded with all in the green except soybean meal with oil back to taking the lead in the product trade. Soybean futures were holding decent gains but deferred contracts such as the new crop November faded right around the noon hour and into the close for only a 1 cent gain. Brazil has taken over the heavy lifting from the U.S. as soybean shipments are now averaging over 964 KMT or 35 MBU per day! This compares to 27.3 MBU per day in early April 2020 and only 253 KBU inspected in containers from the U.S. all last week. Corn led the charge higher yesterday with July a new high settlement and December a new contract high. Early field work is slow to start with below normal temps and wet ground in most areas. This along with continued strong demand is pushing futures higher. Basis levels continue to hold firm and beginning to strengthen in the Western Corn Belt as the PNW battles for bushels to export to SE Asia against the ethanol plants which are increasing production. Wheat posted a Turnaround Tuesday and inside trading day yesterday with rain in the Northern Plains, winter wheat conditions a shade worse in USDA’s crop progress and conditions report Monday afternoon and some cold temps in the Plains this week, which maybe exciting the market as well.
Also in the news yesterday which could most certainly impact exports, specifically corn and wheat, the Russia/Ukraine border is heating up again. The Russian Deputy Foreign Minister now warning the U.S. to keep our warships away from Crimea after Russia moved more troops near Ukraine’s border. Is this just saber-rattling again by Russia or preparations for was as Ukraine has been warning the world since mid-March. Remember back in 2014 when Russia “annexed” Crimea from Ukraine?? And in case you hadn’t heard this yet, Russia amended its constitution recently that would allow Putin to remain in office until 2036!
Grains carrying yesterday’s momentum with them overnight, led by corn hitting new contract highs again. Corn finished the overnight 4 to 8 higher, soybeans 7 to 9 higher and wheat 5 to 8 higher.
No USDA announced private sales this morning but quite a few tenders floating with corn and soybean basis strengthening this week. The top three wheat tenders from the Philippines looking for feed wheat, Algeria for Durum and Ethiopia for milling quality wheat.
Soybean harvest and double-crop progress continues in Brazil with dry conditions in the forecast. Rains across OK and the Southeast yesterday with snow in the Northern Plains. The Southeast expecting more heavy rains over this next week with a system bringing rain into KS towards the end of this week. The 6-10 day outlooks still showing much below normal temps across most of the country, with above normal on the West Coast. Precipitation chances holding below normal for all expect in the Southwest, New England and FL.
May corn hitting a new contract high on Friday at $5.95 and December a new contract high overnight at $5.10 ½. Support for the nearby May contract at $5.50 and for December down at $4.80. May soybeans holding a sideways pattern now for a couple months, support at $13.64 and resistance at $14.60. November still holding a higher trend with the contract high at $12.85 back on April 1st and support around $12.38. May KC wheat breaking the 2 month long lower trend last week with support holding at $5.53 and nearby resistance at $6.00. May Chicago wheat also turning higher the past couple weeks with support around $6.20 and resistance at $6.50. May MPLS wheat has added over $.60 the past couple weeks and looking to test the contract high at $6.62 with support at $6.25. May soybean meal holding support around $395 over this past month with nearby resistance at $410.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700