Date: March 4th, 2019
Livestock markets finished the week mixed. Live cattle continue to be supported as winter weather continues to hamper most feeding areas, beef prices continue to climb higher and packers had to pay up to meet demand needs. Fat cattle trade last week was steady to $3 higher than the week previous at $128 to $129 live and $205 on a dressed basis. There was some unconfirmed trade as high as $130 live for delivery in late March. Feeders continue on a sideways to lower trend with a calf cash market ready to explode higher once weather clears up and procurement for grass cattle picks up.
The January 1 Cattle Inventory Report was released Thursday afternoon with all cattle and calves total at 94.8 million head, slightly above the 94.4 million head from previous year. All cows and heifers that have calves totaled 41.1 million head, up 1 percent from previous year’s total of 40.6 million head. Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter in the U.S. for all feedlots totaled 14.4 million head up 1.6 percent from previous year’s total. The 2018 calf crop was up 2 percent from previous year at 36.4 million head.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 03/01/2019
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week 219,100 60,400 2,700 282,200
Last Week 208,200 57,700 48,600 314,500
Last Year 227,800 44,200 300 272,300
Compared to last week, steers and heifers were uneven; 2.00 lower to 1.00 higher in the North and South Central regions while the Southeast 3.00 to 7.00 higher. Grazing calves in the Southeast were in demand again this week as ranchers are wanting to get cattle procured so they can be ready to turn out when the first sprig of green grass appears. Fields in Nebraska some of Kansas and Missouri are covered with snow and more is expected this weekend as another winter storm makes its’ way from the West Coast to East Coast. Many areas will be under warnings, watches and advisories. Until the feedyard pens freeze up or dry up, cattle expend too much energy just getting to and from the bunks to meet their projected weights.
For the week, Friday February 22nd to Friday March 1st, April Live Cattle +$.67, June +$.95, March Feeder Cattle -$1.67, April -$.25, April Lean Hogs +$.95, June -$.37. Boxed Beef, Choice +$1.90 @ $221.29, Select +$4.44 @ $216.79.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 115,000 head, up 1,000 from the week previous and up 1,000 compared to a year ago. For the week, 603,000 head, up 26,000 from the week previous but down 8,000 from a year ago. Beef production estimated at 491.2 million pounds compared to 474.6 million the week prior and 502.5 million pounds last year. Year to date slaughter down only 0.4% compared to a year ago while beef production is down 1.7%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 471,000 head, down 1,000 from the week previous but up 19,000 compared to a year ago. For the week, 2,449,000 head, down 45,000 from the week previous but up 30,000 from last year. Pork production last week estimated at 525.5 million pounds compared to 534.0 the week prior and 518.3 million pounds last year. Year to date slaughter up 2.0% and pork production up 2.4% compare to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on good demand and light offerings for a total of 75 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__221.29 +1.34, +1.90 for the week
Select Cutout__216.79 +1.52, +4.44 for the week
CME Feeder Index__139.23 -.71
CME Lean Hog Index__52.13 -.51
Pork Carcass Cutout__61.92 +1.43
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__36.22 no comp, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__N/A
National Wtd Avg Live Price__34.48 +.24, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__45.01 +.33
April live cattle still holding a higher trend for over a year, and holding a steeper one since mid-November with the first line of support at $128. Resistance at $130.52 from the continuous weekly chart from a year ago. March feeders still on lower trend since late December, rangebound though since early November from $140.35 to $147.57. April lean hogs trying to break the lower trend in place since December with resistance next up near $60 and support down near $53.
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Grains bounced off lows/support around 11:30 on Friday and raced higher leaving a key reversal higher on the charts for a few contracts. Overall though grains were under heavy pressure for the week with wheat into new lows and corn and soybeans both breaking nearby support levels. The shift in momentum midday wasn’t tied any new news and looked more like a technical bounce higher. There was more chatter on China than normal Friday, and hope towards a deal sooner rather than additional delays.
For the week, Friday February 22nd to Friday March 1st, March Corn -$.11 ¼, May -$.11 ½, New Crop December -$.07 ½, March Soybeans -$.11, May -$.12 ¼, New Crop November -$.08 ¾, March KC Wheat -$.17 ¾, May -$.21 ¼, New Crop July -$.21, March Chicago Wheat -$.32 ¾, May -$.34 ½, New Crop July -$.31 ¾, March MPLS Wheat -$.04 ¾, May -$.06 ¼, New Crop September -$.10 ½, March Soybean Meal -$2.30/T, May -$2.00/T, December -$2.30/T.
Overnight grains were higher with corn finishing 3 higher, soybeans 6 higher and wheat 1 to 2 higher.
While no purchase has been finalized yet, the U.S. reportedly has the lowest offer for 50,000 MT or 1.8 MBU of milling quality wheat to Iraqi with the tender closing today. USDA reported private sale of 100,500 MT or 4 MBU of corn for delivery to Colombia.
Temperatures will gradually warm up this week with another blast of arctic air expected later this week and into the weekend bringing some additional snow to the North and Midwest and heavy rains again on the Southeast. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook showing below normal temps in the North and West with above normal for the Southeast. Precipitation forecasts are above normal for all expect the PNW.
March grain contracts are in delivery now with volume thin and no daily limits. May corn broke lower out of the 5 month long rangebound trade with the low from last fall down at $3.63 ¼, resistance up near $3.87. May soybeans dipped below the higher trend line just briefly last week, support at $9.00 with resistance up at $9.34. May KC wheat with a new contact low last week at $4.32 ½, resistance up at $4.70. May Chicago wheat also with a new contract low last week at $4.47 ¼ and resistance up near $4.95. May soybean meal also a new contract low at $302.80, resistance at $310 then $314.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700