Date: February 19th, 2019
Cash feedlot trade held only steady last week at $125 live and $199 to $200 on a dressed basis in the North. Cattle futures were weaker last week with fats pressing the higher trend line and feeders still holding a lower trend so far this year. Lean hog futures finished higher for the week with the February contract expiring, April still holding a lower trend but June gapping higher and holding above the $76 level.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 02/15/2019
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
Last Week 223,800 78,200 3,600 305,600
This Week 259,700 56,100 22,300 338,100
Last Year 238,000 62,900 2,200 303,100
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold 2.00 lower to 2.00 higher in the North and South Central areas while the Southeast steers and heifers were 2.00 to 5.00 higher. Grazing calves in all areas were in demand this week as procurement was essential to ranchers this week. Ranchers are gearing up for grazing season as many areas have ample moisture for this time of year. When looking at the drought monitor this week, most of the severely drought stricken areas from last year have all but vanished in the breadbasket of the country. Areas in TX, NM, and CO are still showing drought effects. Order buyers were out in full force this week as fewer receipts were at sales across the country and feedyards were willing to take on replacement cattle in spite of muddy pens in the major feeding regions.
For the week, Friday February 8th to Friday February 15th, February Live Cattle -$.75, April -$.75, March Feeder Cattle -$1.50, April -$.67, April Lean Hogs +$4.47, June +$2.35. Boxed Beef, Choice +$1.50 @ $216.85, Select -$.18 @ $210.99.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 111,000 head, down 4,000 from the week previous and down 3,000 compared to a year ago. For the week, 596,000 head, down 24,000 from the week previous and down 6,000 from a year ago. Beef production estimated at 492.2 million pounds compared to 515.2 million the week prior and 494.2 million pounds last year. Year to date slaughter behind last year by 0.8% and beef production down 1.2%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 465,000 head, up 23,000 from the week previous and compared to a year ago. For the week, 2,514,000 head, down 2,000 from the week previous but up 129,000 from last year. Year to date slaughter now 2.1% ahead of a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 537.7 million pounds compared to 536.8 the week previous and 508.8 last year. Year to date pork production running 2.3% ahead of last year.
Boxed beef cutout values from Friday firm to higher on moderate to fairly good demand and moderate offerings for a total of 102 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__216.85 +.78
Select Cutout__210.99 +.58
CME Feeder Index__141.31 -.19 from 2/14
CME Lean Hog Index__55.02 -.22 from 2/14
Pork Carcass Cutout__63.03 +.27
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__46.73 -2.28
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__48.51 -.21
Joplin Regional Stockyards – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 2/18/2019
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
4,509 3,956 9,172
Compared to last week, steer calves and yearlings steady, heifer calves 2.00 to 6.00 higher. Demand good, supply light.
Oklahoma National Stockyards – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 2/18/2019
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
9,100 6,378 10,151
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers steady to 3.00 lower with exception to 600-650 lb. feeder steers and 650-700 lb. feeder heifers bringing 2.00 higher. Steer calves steady to 5.00 higher. Heifer calves mostly steady to 1.00 lower with exception to 400-450 lbs. 5.00 higher.
February live cattle still holding the higher trend that has been in place since mid-November. It did take a dip below nearby support last week with the next down at $124.70. The contract high from January is up at $127.95 and the next area of resistance up near $130 from the weekly charts and going back to last February. March feeders still chopping sideways to lower with support at $142 and resistance up at $145.50 then $147.50. April lean hogs still holding a lower trend, down nearly $14 since early December, finding support last week right around $58.
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Grains finished mixed on Friday and for the week. Trade talks with China will continue, South American weather looking decent nearby providing neither support nor pressure on the markets at this time. U.S. exports are just decent as well with USDA catching up on weekly export sales for this calendar year coming up on Friday. Wheat was able to attract a couple buyers this past week but not enough with multiple tenders going elsewhere and pressuring wheat futures, especially KC contracts into new contract lows. NOPA crush was reported Friday with 171.63 MBU of soybeans crushed domestically in January, well above the expected 169.6 MBU.
For the week, Friday February 8th to Friday February 15th, March Corn +$.00 ½, New Crop December unchanged, March Soybeans -$.07, New Crop November -$.05, March KC Wheat -$.17 ¾, New Crop July -$.15 ¾, March Chicago Wheat -$.13, New Crop July -$.13, March MPLS Wheat +$.04 ½, March Soybean Meal +$.40/T.
Australia’s Ag agency estimate total wheat production for this year’s crop at 17.3 MMT, down from 21.24 MMT last season and the smallest wheat crop since 2007/08 crop due to drought. This was not enough bullish news for U.S. wheat with Bangladesh buying 50K MT of Russian wheat, Syria buying 200k MT of Black Sea origin wheat and Ethiopia buying 400K MT of optional origin wheat. South Korea purchased 65K MT or optional origin corn yesterday.
Winter weather again this week with heavy snow across the Western Corn Belt, heavy rains continue in the Southeast with ongoing flooding. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook still showing below normal temps for all except in the Southeast. Precipitation forecasts above normal in the North and in the Southeast with below normal in the Southwest.
March corn still stuck in its rangebound trade with nearby support at $3.71 and resistance at $3.82. March soybeans still holding the long term higher trend from this fall with support at $9.00 and resistance at $9.31. March KC wheat crashing lower these past couple weeks into a new contract low at $4.72 with the first line of resistance up at $5.00. March Chicago wheat hitting a new recent low at $4.99 ¼ with the contract low down at $4.82 ¼ and resistance up at $5.18. March soybean meal still rangebound but on a lower trend so far this year testing the long term support levels from $305 to $303.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700