Date: October 10th, 2018
Mostly lower for livestock futures yesterday but we did ease some from solid triple digits. The pressure seen yesterday may cause some uncertainty for the balance of this week with both the cattle and hog markets looking for direction. Only a few hundred head of cash fed cattle confirmed so far this week at $110.50 live and $174 dressed in Iowa yesterday. Maybe we shall see some more movement with the Fed Cattle Exchange later today as 1,246 head are consigned compared to just a few hundred head these past weeks and no sales.
Oklahoma National Stockyards – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/8/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
5,416 9,614 5,197
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers few sales 3.00-5.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves are trading sharply lower mostly 6.00-8.00 lower, with instances up to 10.00 lower for un-weaned bawling calves.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK.
Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 10/08/2018
Receipts: 3183 Last Week: 3911 Year Ago: 3272
Compared to last week: Steers 6.00-7.00 lower. Heifers 7.00-9.00 lower.
Joplin Regional Stockyards – Carthage, MO
Livestock Auction Report for 10/8/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
4,494 4,544 5,069
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves weaned and medium flesh condition steady to 5.00 higher, calves fleshy and un-weaned steady to 5.00 lower, yearlings steady to firm.
Winter Livestock Inc – La Junta, CO
Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 10/09/2018
Receipts: 2907 Last Week: 2822 Year Ago: 1819
Compared with last Tuesday: Weaned steer and heifer calves with quality and condition 3.00 to 5.00 instances 8.00 lower, lower quality un-weaned bawling calves 10.00 to 15.00 lower. Yearling feeder steers steady to 1.00 higher, yearling feeder heifers mostly steady in a light test.
OKC West – El Reno, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/9/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
1,500 11,008 6,871
*** Final report including feeder cattle will be released tomorrow ***
Compared to last Tuesday: Steer and heifer calves were lightly tested this week due to continuous rainfall hampering livestock movement, however a lower undertone is noted.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday is estimated at 118,000 head, down 1,000 from the week previous and compared to last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday is estimated at 473,000 head, down 1,000 from last week but up 8,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values weak on Choice and higher on Select on light to moderate demand and offerings for a total of 127 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__202.85 -.36
Select Cutout__192.72 +.91
CME Feeder Index:__158.45 +.30
CME Lean Hog Index.__69.33 -.03
Pork Carcass Cutout__79.06 +.13
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live__ 48.77 no comp, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__63.69 +.33
National Wtd Avg Live__ 49.68 +1.48, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__63.45 +.08
October live cattle actually did set a new recent high yesterday at $114.47 before reversing lower and finding support at the 20-day moving average now at $113.11 with additional support around $112. October feeders with range bound trade from $155.87 to $159.90 since September 14th. January tested the bottom end of the month long range bound trade yesterday with resistance up around $156 and the contract high hit last week at $156.57. October lean hogs pushing above $69 this week continuing the near straight line rally since late August. The next resistance area is up around $70 with the contact high at $75.30.
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This wet weather and delayed harvest is causing many issues from flood warnings throughout the area up into the Corn Belt to now fall crop damage increasing. Export inspections for the week ending October 4th for strong again for corn at 53.2 MBU but soybeans and wheat again light at 20.9 and 15.5 MBU respectively. USDA did announce a sale of 4.4 MBU of HRS to Bangladesh this morning. Grain sorghum shipments popped finally with 2.4 MBU last week, 87.5% of the year to date total, as Spain finally took a big chunk.
Crop progress and conditions were released after the close yesterday. Corn harvest is now 34% complete compared to 21% last year and 26% average pace with 93% of the crop mature, 10 points ahead of the average. Soybean harvest though fell behind at 32% complete now compared to 34% last year and 36% average with 91% dropping leaves compared to 88% last year and 85% average. Grain sorghum harvest also behind at 39% complete compared to 42% average with 73% mature compared to 72% average. Winter wheat planted at 57% compared to 46% last year and 54% average with 30% emerged.
Grains were mixed overnight along with the world stocks and outside markets. Corn finished steady to ½ lower, soybeans 4 lower and wheat 1 to 2 lower.
The grain markets could be very uneventful awaiting Thursday’s USDA monthly crop report. The expectations are for higher yields for both corn and soybeans and just a reminder that this is based off data from the end of September/first of October. The Quarterly Stocks report also gave us a higher ending stocks from a year ago which means higher beginning stocks for this marketing year. The average trade estimate has corn yield up ½ BPA to 181.8 and ending stocks up 146 MBU to 1.92 BBU. Soybean yield is projected a ½ BPA higher as well with ending stocks up only 53 MBU to 898 MBU. World corn stocks are expected to increase nearly 2 MMT to 159 MMT, soybean stocks up 1 MMT to 109.5 MMT and world wheat stocks up slightly to 261.4 MMT.
Rains over these next few days and week concentrated on the Southeast as Hurricane Michael gets ready to hit land as a cat 4. We will still see some lingering showers in the Southern Plains and Midwest. The latest 6-10 day outlook holding with below normal moisture stretching from the PNW through the Corn Belt and above normal south and east with below normal temps through the heart of the U.S., above normal on both coasts.
December corn still trying but unable to break the $3.70 resistance and $3.64 support area holding with the next down at $3.59. November soybeans still trending higher since the contract low at $8.12 ¼ with resistance at $8.75 then at $9.07. December KC wheat choppy with support at last month’s low at $4.98 ¾ and resistance up at $5.35 then at $5.45. December Chicago wheat looks similar on the charts with support at $4.95 and resistance up at $5.32 & $5.36. December soybean meal still trending higher since the low mid-September at $301.60. It did break through the $320 resistance on Monday but was unable to close above it with the first line of support at $310.
U.S. Corn and Soybean Yield 2018/2019 (BPA)
USDA Private Estimates USDA Estimates
OCT 2018 Average Range Sept 2018 2017/18
Corn 181.8 180.6 – 183.5 181.3 176.6
Soybeans 53.3 52.0 – 55.0 52.8 49.1
U.S. Ending Stocks 2018/2019 (Billion Bushels)
USDA Private Estimates USDA
OCT 2018 Average Range Sept 2018
Corn 1.919 1.766 – 2.352 1.774
Soybeans 0.898 .778 – .985 0.845
Wheat 0.950 .895 – .997 0.935
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700